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Chinese economy expected to have slipped into deflation as recovery falters
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2023
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But they won't because people are expecting prices to drop even more. Food and necessities, sure, it's kinda nice this month for that, but washing machines, a new TV? Better next month. And then the next. And then you don't have a job any more because you're working at a washing machine factory and nobody's buying them and the economy is going under.
Deflation being bad is one of those (rare) instances where mainstream economics actually is right. Of course inflation is bad, too, but there's a reason central banks tend to set targets just a percent or two into inflation: That's way better than risking deflation.
I don't know if deflation itself is that harmful or if it's just a symptom of economic troubles, i.e. lack of demand. In any case, if it persists, that's not a good outlook for the Chinese economy.
Both, it's a positive feedback loop, and in the end it doesn't really matter what started it once the economy crashes you've gone through multiple lack of demand -> prices fall -> even more lack of demand iterations.
"positive" as in engineering, not as in good
The current rounds of layoffs in the last couple years have noting to do with people not buying washing machines from the washing machine factory... It has to do with the washing machine CEO saying that we have too sell 200% MORE washing machines this year compared to last OR we're going to call that "nobody's buying washing machines".
You're quoting theory while ignoring the failed reality around you.
No washing machine factory has lost any money, they just didn't make as much profit as they hoped for - even then, plenty of them are seeing record profits and still doing layoffs and raising prices to consumers artificially to exploit the pandemic profiteering moment and juice their stock price.
What I described is independent of CEO behaviour. It's also not actually about washing machines, it's about money needing to circulate and consumers not consuming stopping that. How China got itself into the situation is irrelevant, what matters, on the business side, is the sudden lack of liquidity as the company's source of income dries up while costs (wages, anything fixed even if you shut down production) continue.
What you say about CEOs might be true -- but then China is a command economy. It could just order CEOs to cut the shit. The comrades in the central committee, in all their wisdom, apparently only want to harden the Chinese people against hardship that's why they're crashing the economy it is for the betterment of the nation and the success of socialism.
We don't have alternative jobs in 2023! Everyone whose not a millionaire or richer needs to get their asses on the factory floor!
Yeah because I totally was talking about washing machines.