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Trump rejects Fox News invite to debate Harris in late October
(www.reuters.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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My read is that he like what he see's in the polling and he see's no reason to rearrange the pieces on the board. Harris has been struggling and backsliding on her own via bad campaign decisions. She blew her momentum on being "pro-buisness" and trying to court Republicans. Any idiot would have known the natural outcome of that strategy, but if you are a Democratic strategist, you aren't just "any idiot".
Over the next couple of days Harris is going to start going from dropping in the polls to dropping in the probabilistic models predictions of victory. Right now, we don't even need to worry about supreme court fuckery, because Harris is on track to lose this organically.
Harris needs to splash some cold water over her face, and go back to what was working. She could easily bite back 2-3% in the polling coming out strongly against genocide. Its been her game to lose since she took the reigns.
That doesn't line up as how the Republican campaign has been acting. For instance, they've started spending in areas like ME-2 which has been pretty strongly Republican for a while
Down ballot they're republicans are uping spending in places that should be theoretically solidly red like Nebraska (senate race) and Indiana (governor race)
How I'd read it has more to do with how Trump's been having more obvious mental decline lately. A second debate would really show that
You need to think about who debates are for. Both you and I know both sides are going to claim a W. I mean, hell, look at the bag of idiots around this forum who were claiming that Joe Biden won his debate against Trump. Both sides are convinced at this point; thats not why you have them. You want a debate if you are behind because you need to somehow move the configuration of the conversation. And if Republicans are spending in ME-2? Bruh who gives a fuck about ME-2. Kamala is shaping up to lose PA. Its looking like she'll lose NC and GA and AZ. If she loses PA and any one of those states, its over.
Kamala has one path to the white house at this point. She needs to repair her relationship with the uncommitted movement and drive turn-out among Democrats and Democratic likelies. Right now 2-3% of registered Democrats aren't going to show up for her based on her (and Bidens) position on Gaza. She needs to stop pretending that there are any sane voters left on the Republican side and stop putting effort into them and focus on the people that can actually get her elected.
That is missing my point about their spending changes. Districts and states are hardly isolated from each other. The movments within one tends to correlate well with others. If there's slipage for republicans in fairly red ME-2, it bodes well for other states
Republicans are more resource limited right now compared to dems. If think they need to allocate money away from those swing states into ME-2 (which running up the score in doesn't particularly matter), what does that say about how they view the race?
Not to say they couldn't be just allocating poorly and making poor choices, but in that case then this whole discussion is moot about reading into their decisions as to not to debate
So a couple things. First I think that the Trump campaign in particular and unique among campaigns doesn't share when ti comes to funds. Most campaigns support other campaigns.
Second, the ME-2 spending I think your're referencing is this: https://mainemorningstar.com/2024/09/23/billionaire-backed-midwest-super-pac-spending-millions-on-maines-cd2-race/, which is a specific outside pac spending on that race. But to be clear, this isn't the RNC or the Trump campaign doing the spending, so it bears little relevance to your point. So I think you are wrong to read anything about the microscopic ME-2 race into literally anything else. Far far far more telling are the polls in big states like PA, GA, AZ, NC, etc.. where Harris's polling went from stagnant to declining.
Generally, the person losing an election is the one that wants a debate and the one winning wants to avoid exposure to any kinds of potential mishaps. Its a strategically good decision for Trump to sandbag and not give Harris an opportunity to get some more sound bytes (not like it really matters).
ME-02 was just a small example. The ME-02 I believe was on the presidential race (Maine like Nebraska splits their electoral votes). The link was about the congressional race. To be fair, I mostly just remember it because they ran an ad that accidentally stated with "Dear Virginia" in Maine. Trump has also been relying more on PACs for his campaign to be fair as he's been outsourcing a lot more. Regardless, they've also done things like as another example pull money out of New Hampshire which they thought they, while probably not winning, could at least narrow margins on earlier with Biden in
Normally, I'd agree with that about debating. However, even other republicans were earlier urging trump to debate again and he still declined
Are you suggesting that because people aren't as excited now as they were when Biden first dropped out and endorsed Harris, she's tanking?
If you are, this is a bad argument. Anyone who knows politics knows her momentum was always going to slow, and polls will ebb and flow.
The polls have shown this is a historically close election, it has been since Harris announced and will be until election day.
Her poll numbers went from flatlined to now declining. She's not only not gaining ground, she is now losing ground.
Yeah, I'm not interested in what most lemmings think is a bad or a good argument. Most lemming are fucking idiots when it comes to politics and are just here to cheer on their team. They are allergic to reality when it disagrees with how they wish things were.
Yeah except that they are not. Its not even close to close right now. Harris has a -5 structural disadvantage baked into the EC map. So nationally, she needs to be up by 5 to be even. She's not up by five, she's up by 2-3, which means she's not even overcoming structural bias (MOE not even worth discussing here). Biden was up by +9 on election day. It came down to something like 80k total votes that gave Biden the office?
So no. Kamala isn't winning. She's under performing Biden 2020. By a lot. She needs to do better or she'll lose this thing.
🤡
It is difficult to get someone to understand something when their identity depends upon them not understanding it.
Yeah you continually prove that quite well.
The lion, the witch, and the audacity of this bitch...
Funny, I expected someone to say this to you.
What do I give a fuck what someone's whose world view prevents them from a accurately assessing the present thinks?
Again, you keep saying things that should belong in a selfawarewolves community.
That's just your distorted perspective because you live in a confirmation bias bubble.
Can I expect your sincere apology in a week when this point that I'm making is the news cycle?
Still not helping your case, friendly selfawarewolf.
Answer the question: when Harris's declining poll numbers are the news cycle, will you apologize in public?
Edit: and "helping my case"? 😂 Bruh. This political forum gets it so consistently wrong. You are the definition of who the quote I offered I meant to define.
Why does every major poll say the opposite of your lie?
In a week or two when this is the major news cycle, your going to apologize right?
Absolutely, hope you do the same
And what would I be apologizing for? I made no accusations of you, like you did me.
Ah man we need that RemindMe bot so I don't have to set a reminder.
No need to wait.. I already clapped back; see below.
Apologize for the lying
Ok great. Show me the lie and we can take it from there.
About her poll numbers declining and flat lining. She's only ever been going up and gaining momentum
Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate
Reality (for GA) (Data accessed, 10/10/24, 20:03:54 UTC, Silver Bullets, and a codeshare link for you to reproduce this figure):
Reality (for NC) :
Reality (for PA) :
Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn't have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she's losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.
Florida:
Michigan:
Nevada:
You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.
So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?
[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I'll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.
AZ: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PIfyl.csv
FL: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cjyet.csv
GA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/UsnHS.csv
MI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/aXTQJ.csv
MN: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/9UhVa.csv
NV: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cmRIw.csv
NH: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/3o8Wf.csv
NC: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/dU8Ti.csv
PA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/Jhz1g.csv
TX: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/IRAjD.csv
VA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/TgibS.csv
WI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/8vbx4.csv
]