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Amid anger over Israel, Harris courts Arab and Muslim voters. Will it work?
(www.aljazeera.com)
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this post was submitted on 11 Oct 2024
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The following are all true:
This is simple logical arithmetic. The best strategy is to say nothing, and not piss anyone off. Because if you choose to piss off one side and support the other, you'll end up making the other go to Trump or decide to stay home. And if that happens, it'll be Miriam Adelson deciding the policy and that means Israel takes both Gaza and the West Bank and expels everyone they don't like.
There is much evidence to show that is not true. Harris changing position on Gaza to support withholding weapons would only be a gain of voters. Polling shows as much as 6 points if not more, which is significant, especially with the race this close. And especially in swing states like Michigan.
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These are all interesting polls and slightly more supportive of changing Israel policy than I would've expected, but they don't really answer the key question: if Kamala came out and announced a key change to the relationship with Israel, like withholding military aid, would her numbers improve or get worse? The top poll doesn't really answer it because the Biden administration clearly has been trying to make a ceasefire happen, without success. So 49% represents the current reality.
I'd also point out that in the second poll, 13% of Democratic voters support more weapons for Israel. If Kamala loses 13% of Democrats, or even a quarter of that number, this election is over.
You can always just shame them into voting for Kamala, like the demonstrably larger other side of the argument is being shamed now, since you guys seem to think that's the strategy to beat them all.
I don't believe in shaming. But what I will say is that the far-right Israel supporters, like Miriam Adelson who supports fully annexing the West Bank and gave $100 million to Trump, are going to be voting for Trump this election. Whether you wanna do anything to counter them is up to you.
No shit, which is why the Democrats should stop trying to win over those voters and take a stand against genocide instead of pussyfooting around the issue. You can convince every last soul that reads this thread that Trump is going to personally murder every remaining Palestinian, and yes, shame, every last voter you meet for disagreeing with you, and it will blow away like a fart in the wind.
You and I are only individuals, and lemmy is a very small platform. We cannot change things systemically from here no matter how much we shout and argue past each other.
The only thing that can change the outcome is changing the talking points and policy at the top, because the strategy they're going with now is actively damaging to their campaign and working against your efforts. The undecided voters are doing her a courtesy by letting her know before election day where their convictions lie so she can meet them where they are. If she refuses to heed that warning, then that is on her.
The critical part of the first poll is the halt of arms sales to Israel, that is what gives the Democrats a +6 boost.
The third poll (which I think you meant) still shows that twice as many Democrats want to reduce weapons sent compared to those who do. Although, I'm not sure we can reasonably say those 13% of Democrats would no longer vote for Harris if she did change her policy on that. Would that also imply that those 28% of Republicans also switch to Harris? I don't think that would be true either.
The second poll, which deals with swing states, shows that people are not deciding to not vote Democrat because of the current policy. To the extent that a change in policy would make ~35% of those swing state voters would be more likely to vote for the Dems compared to the ~5% that would be less likely.
The 4th poll shows a 5% increase from a chance in policy, similar to the first.
The 5th shows how Biden's handling of the war, the calls of a 'ceasefire' that never materializes while the US continues to send more and more weapons, is one of his most unpopular positions.