This race is the most "who fucking knows" since I've followed US elections.

Some things of I think are of note

• AZ and NV having abortion ballot measures should heavily lean dem (someone else here already mentioned this)
• NC's governor ticket will probably drag Republicans down. Mark Robinson was exposed as a serial gooner (pornshop debt) who is a black Nazi that wants slavery to return (this is not a joke). He strikes me as a worse Herschel Walker/Dr Oz type candidate and I think dems pickup NC because of it. The broader Republican party is trying to run away from him because he's seen as that toxic
• GA will have the most brazenly corrupt election this side of the century, and that's saying a lot since their incumbent governor probably stole his own first election already. Their election board will send Trump electors no matter what (unless there is somehow a massive electoral college win for Kamala which I don't see happening)
• MI goes for Trump on the Stein 3rd party vote and liberals transition from their current state (going mask off) to gleeful celebration of, like, domestic socdem repression
• PA I genuinely have no clue. No confidence whatsoever in a call either way
• Every other state I think is locked in (including WI for dems- this is possibly what I'll be most gut feeling wrong about)

Republicans take the Senate

I think a 269-269 tie is an incredibly possible situation and I think it would fall under funniest timeline theory (for those reading this results in a Trump presidency due to tiebreaker rules favoring him).