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Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar likely killed in Gaza clash, officials say
(www.ynetnews.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Those leaders are falling like flies; Iran's entire proxy network has been systematically dismantled over the last year. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis are all a shadow of what they were very recently.
Unfortunately, I don’t see it making Israeli civilians safer in the medium term due to the brutality of the wars. Israel can kill every Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi leader but if the civilian deaths are disproportionate, new groups will form. Individuals will seek their own revenge. Israel is arguably as isolated diplomatically as it’s ever been.
It seems like a very short term victory that will undermine any chance for lasting peace.
Hopefully we will also see their ally Russia dismantled in the coming year.
All which might cause the weakening of Turkish forces in Syria and the demise of Assad.
Things are much more complicated than "all friends of Russia"
Russia and Iran are competing over influence in Syria. This is why Russia let Israel bomb Iran affiliated groups in Syria. In return Israel sent drones to Russia, didnt join Russian sanctions, and demanded Ukraine to surrender when Russia started the full blown invasion.
Israel is closely allied with Azerbaidschan, having provided much of the drones that were used to fuck Armenia and ethnically cleanse Berkarabach. In return they get most of their Oil from Azerbaidschan and offered it to exploit the Gas fields in front of Gaza that Israel wants to steal.
However Azerbaidschan is also a close ally of Turkey, which is pushed to end its complicity with Israel while the rethoric is much harsher already. Turkey is invading northern Syria, which neither Iran nor Russia like, but Russia also needs Turkey for trade, while Turkey is in NATO...
And that is just beginning to scratch the surface.
I agree it's more complicated, but it doesn't change what I wrote.
A weaker Iran means a weaker Russia and vice versa.
If both are weakened, Assad is weakened.
But I guess it's not as clear cut with Turkey. Although the Kurds will have an easier time when they won't have to fight Iranian, Syrian and Russian forces along with Turkish ones. And a weakening of Iran will also weaken Iranian-affiliated Iraqi militias that are also attacking Kurds.
Russia didn't let Israel, one of their bases were shot at for 40 minutes straight as a warning.
They also got a bunch of other warnings before and after. Russia won't waste their time on this when they're already losing so much in the war with Ukraine.
Both Russia and Iran helped Assad in the civil war.
Israel is allied with Azerbaijan because of their border with Iran.
Turkey was already assisting Hamas even before. They'll keep trade with Israel behind the scenes for economic reasons like they've always done.
And at the moment Russia is assisting Turkey in bombing the Kurds.
Yeah, it seems the only win the axis of resistance has experienced over the past year is Israel’s tanking international reputation, and that’s far more the result of Israel’s actions than anything the AoR has done.
Israels economy is also tanking heavily. They have lost some 80 billion over the past year. Their "reverse migration" is stronger than ever.
Unless the West destroys the ICC, Israeli politicians and soldiers could face a trial that will make Nuremberg look like district court, especially as IDF proudly films and shares their war crimes online.
Israel has dived down the deep fascist end. This means political violence and murder will skyrocket. Someone who is used to getting away with murdering women and children and gettin praised for it instead of punished, will slaughter his wife and kids too if they dont obey. You know how femicide and domestic violence are rampant among cops? And only few of them have killed someone.
Once societies go down such a route there is no stopping them until they fall apart. Question is if it will meam genocide to thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions.
I mean it was Hamas fighting until this October, and I don't think anyone was expecting Hamas to beat Israel in a straight fight. Hezbollah will probably do better in a defensive war, but even then they won't deal the kind of serious damage you're expecting, and that was never the point.
You talk about Israel's international reputation tanking like it's a minor occurence, but the change in Western public opinion over the past year is big. Expect a lot of change in Israeli-Western relations in the next 20 years as the next generation gains more power in politics and the older generations more likely to support Israel die off.
This is reminiscent of “just wait for the older generations to die off so we can finally elect more progressive candidates” I’ve been told of for the past 20 years. Meanwhile, it seems reactionaries are doing better than they have in decades the world around. I hope you’re right, but I’m not optimistic.
I mean this does, to an extent, hold true in the US. The GOP's voter base is dying off and the country is bluer than ever. If Harris didn't insist on taking over Biden's most unpopular policies this wouldn't even be a contest. That said, I will acknowledge that I might be looking at things too optimistically.
I wouldn't count on it. Western attention spans are nowhere near long enough for that.
If genocide and terrorism are "winning", then the AoR hasn't had any "wins" like the zios.
I find Israel’s methods abhorrent, but when I ask myself, are Palestinians better off than they were on October 6th 2023? Is Hamas stronger than it was a year ago? Hezbollah? The answers are all no.
Winning from a realpolitik perspective is simply “is an actor achieving their strategic aims?” So far Israel seems to be while I see no indication of that from the AoR. I think all this is really achieving in the long term for Israel is a perpetuation of generational conflict, but at the same time I’m failing to see what benefits October 7th has netted for anyone besides Bibi getting casus belli.
All the dead Palestinians sure aren't better off.
If they were Hamas terrorists, the world is better off without them.
Hamas only exists because of the Apartheid Occupation of Israel and the daily violence that has subjected Palestinians to for generations
I mean Israel isn't accomplishing their strategix goals either, because they don't really have any except genocide. There's a reason anyone with half a brain is calling this war a massive failure for Israel on multiple fronts.
It netted Palestinians more international support than the past 20 years combined. Israel is winning on the ground, but historians will point to October 7th and the resulting Gaza genocide as the beginning of the end for Israel.
Elimination of AoR leadership was absolutely a strategic goal for Israel. Hopefully increased support for Palestine leads to concrete help for Palestinians, but as far as I can tell so far all it has netted them is a UN general assembly seat. May very well be overlooking something, admittedly. I will also concede that it’s too early to really see the downstream impacts of the war. That said, looking over the history of all the wars and intifadas in the region, I’m not sure I can point to any that didn’t weaken the Palestinian position while strengthening the Israeli one.
I see, but was it a logical goal? Seems like a whack a mole situation that does nothing but create martyrs.
I'd say the first Intifada did a lot for Palestinians (until Netanyahu destroyed the Oslo Accords, anyway), but that aside: You're looking at this too much like a conventional conflict between two sides where the stronger wins. I mean, that's not completely inaccurate, but you're forgetting that Israel can only do all this because it has an absolutely vital lifeline in its relationship with the West. Remove that and the whole thing will come apart. The days where Israel singlehandedly dominated the region like in 1949 and 1967 (with Western intelligence, but that aside) are gone; now it's all about their relationship with the West. And in that West, you have the majority of people against continuing that relationship. And what's more, that majority is leaning towards younger people who will grow up and raise their kids with their image of Israel framed by their actions in the past year. Politicians are finding it hard to publicly associate with Israel, with Biden being rightly considered a fucking buffoon for doing so. You have large swathes of people opposing Israeli actions enough it's considered one of the Harris campaign largest hurdles. As you said, Palestine didn't directly gain much (they did gain a massive rise in support for BDS, for example, so not nothing), but Israel lost a lot and it's only going to lose more as time goes on and the effects of their current actions cement themselves in Western collective consciousness. Israel gained the upper hand in this conflict by gaining Western support, and they'll lose it by losing Western support. This trend has been progressing for the past 20 or so years, but Israeli actions post October 7th accelerated it significantly.
Increased BDS support is a good call out
What about the imperial proxy network that's invading the middle east with genocide, terrorism, kidnapping, SA, child abuse, etc.?
They seem to be doing fine. Bibi appears to be cultivating a forever war so he can stay in power indefinitely.
Hamas yeah, Hezbollah and the Houthis? I haven't seen any indication of that. The war with Hezbollah just started and the Houthis dealt a lot more damage to Israel than they took from Western airstrikes.
The US has been hitting any Houthi poking their head above ground for the last year. Their available munitions and fighters are drastically reduced. You don't see them landing helicopters on civilian tankers anymore, no, now you see B2 bombers blowing up their hideouts.
Hezbollah is even worse off. Israel compromised their supply lines and blew up huge portions of their leadership up and down the chain. They then were forced to meet in person, where even more of their leadership exploded via air-dropped bombs. No, they won't recover for years. And this is while Israel launched a ground invasion destroying even more of their capability.
I haven't seen anyone talking about that. Where did you find this information?
Which part? B2 strikes on the Houthis happened this week.
I know about the airstrikes and about how Israel has been assassinating Hezbollah leadership, but not much I've seen talked about how much damage these actions are causing on the ground, and nothing said the Houthis or Hezbollah were shadows of their former selves.