Looks like Russia about to be discarded by China like a used toy. I have already warned of this since earlier in the year when signs begin to emerge, and recent indications are all pointing toward the same direction.

Let’s see what this article from a Chinese academic in Australia has to say:

Why China now wants to put some limits on its ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia

Quoting a few banger paragraphs here:

In sharp contrast to 2022, China’s growing wariness is increasingly being discussed in the open, even among those who were previously censored. In early 2022, for instance, a joint letter by six Chinese emeritus historians opposing Russia’s invasion was censored by the government. The scholars were also warned.

Now, however, it appears the government is seeking to balance its relationships with both Russia and the West. Beijing may not want to be seen as a “decisive enabler” of the war.

For example, the once-prominent “no-limits” friendship language quietly vanished from a Sino-Russian joint statement in May.

And Beijing’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit that month was notably subdued. Putin ingratiated himself with Xi, saying they were “as close as brothers”. Xi’s response was more perfunctory – he called Putin a “good friend and a good neighbour”.

lol Putin must be sad.

Scholars are also articulating their concerns about China’s political and economic investments in Russia, both publicly and privately.

Shen Dingli, a leading scholar of Chinese security strategy at Fudan University in Shanghai, said China doesn’t want to be seen as collaborating with Russia against Ukraine or any other country.

He also quoted Fu Cong, China’s former ambassador to the European Union, who said last year the “no-limits” [friendship] is “nothing but rhetoric”.

And in August, after Putin referred to China as an “ally” during a visit to far-eastern Russia, Chinese scholars promptly sought to clarify this statement to prevent any misunderstanding China wants a formal alliance with Russia.

Putin, after being rejected by Europe, sought to pursue a relationship with China only to be rejected again.

As Feng Yujun, director of Fudan University’s Russia and Central Asia Study Centre, argued, the Wagner rebellion was a reflection of Russia’s internal conflicts and domestic security challenges. He noted every time Russia has faced both internal and external crises in history, its regimes have become less stable.

More recently, Feng has been even bolder, predicting Russian defeat in Ukraine. He argued China should keep its distance from Moscow and resume a policy of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-partisanship”.

lmao

While Russia-China trade reached a record US$240 billion (A$360 billion) in 2023, it has slowed so far this year, as Chinese financial institutions have sought to limit connections with Russia.

The relationship still heavily favours Beijing. Russia accounts for only 4% of China’s trade, while China accounts for nearly 22% of Russia’s trade.

Many Chinese experts are now warning against an over-dependence on Russia, instead calling for more cooperation with neighbouring countries. This echoes a recent concern Russia has been using its natural resources as a bargaining chip to extract greater benefits from China.

It is absurd to think that Russia could ever replace the West as the main economic partner for China without any kind of ideological commitment. As long as China wants to remain a global net exporter country instead of a domestic consumption oriented economy, it is never going to give up the American and European consumer markets. That means Russia will have to be sacrificed at some point.

Zhao Long, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of International Relations, says there is an important difference in how they view the world:

Russia wants to destroy the current international system to build a new one. China wants to transform the current system by taking a more prominent place in it.

Yes, you heard that right. Russia wants to destroy the current system and build a new one. China wants to transform the current neoliberal system by taking a more prominent place in it lol.

Recently, Feng Yujun warned China risks being led by the nose by Russia, despite being the stronger economic partner. He says every time China has attempted an alliance with Russia in history, it has had negative consequences for China.

Consequently, it is crucial for China to maintain its long-term partnership with Russia without undermining its constructive relationship with the West.

lol yes it is the relationship with the West that is constructive. Russia is just a spare tire.

Russia has arguably benefited from the current competition between the US and China, as it has sought to exploit the rivalry for its own benefit. But this has also led to uncertainty in the China-Russia relationship.

As another analyst, Ji Zhiye, argues, relying too heavily on Russia will leave China isolated and vulnerable. And this is not a position China wants to be in.

I guess relying on the West is a much safer option for China then.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the coup against liberals over the past two years has failed. They really have made a come back. Chinese banks succumbing to US secondary sanctions on Russia was alarming. The recent monetary easing policy that closely followed the US Federal Reserve rate cut has all but confirmed this.

The same Shanghai libs who screwed up Zero Covid so bad that the entire country had to give up on the policy that had worked so well for nearly 3 years, are now begging the central leadership to save the stock and property markets and mend relationships with Western capital.

Just like Ukraine is about to be discarded by the US, Russia too will soon experience the same fate of being discarded by China. Going to be interesting to see how the BRICS summit goes next week.