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this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2024
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So, couple guesses on my part, prior to information coming in:
If the attack is over -- which I don't know, but I don't think that there'd be a reason to have it run over an extended period of time -- and if these reports as to explosions are accurate, it is probably far smaller than the Iranian attack to which it was a response. That attack included 200 ballistic missiles. On the other hand, if -- and we don't know this yet, though I'm sure it'll be in the news shortly -- Israel actually hit IRGC headquarters, they probably caused more damage and killed more people than the Iranian strike; the missile fired at Mossad's headquarters was inaccurate and hit an area by a nearby road, as I recall, and a number of the missiles were intercepted.
If Israel is aiming to mirror the Iranian attack in particulars, not just targets, the Iranian attack included two waves. I don't know why Israel would do that unless it had something to do with intended damage by Iran, but thought it'd be worth a mention, since knowing when the Israeli attack is complete would be interesting information.
Did 200 missiles hit their targets though? Israel has F35's that can basically guarantee to hit any target they like, Iran has to assume 90% of their missiles will be intercepted.
Most of Iran's missiles were intercepted.
Israel isn't going to fly F-35s into Iran, least of all because there's a couple countries in between (by land, anyway).
Edit: I guess they are going to use F-35s, and they really are going to fly all the way around the Arabian peninsula: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gulf-states-reluctance-allow-airspace-delaying-israel-iran-strikes
I thought the majority of Iran's missiles got through?
No, most were intercepted.