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this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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She could get these out of the margin of error if she can just signal that she would be tougher on Israel and get back the couple percentage that she's left on the table with Arab, Muslim, and anti-genocide voters.
If you want Harris to win, you want these people to come back to the table. The only place to make up the difference is with young (18-30,30-45) women voters, where she break hard. Trying to read the exit polls for tea leaves has been tough. Though enough that based on early voting the Harris campaign cancelled ad-buys in NC, because the EV exit polls showed a clear bias for Trump. So at least in that race, whatever their strategy was, didn't work. Also consider that Harris also led in NC for a couple of brief moments in early/ middle September (before her rightwing pivot). I think this is evidence that there is still money being left on the table by Harris, and while it might be too late, if she can pivot back on some leftish priorities (there is really only Israel/ Gaza), this can get her the couple ten's of thousands to hundred-thousand votes she'll need in these key states.
So without a pivot, you have one demographic path to victory, and an un-measurable/ unreliable one (NC case). Pivot and you at least open the door to a second path to victory.
Where are you seeing those exit polls?
https://carolinaelections.com/tracker/61
There was a better dashboard that I found yesterday that I can't seem to track down again, but its the same data feeding into it.
This is the "mixed results" or unclear signal we're seeing. Republicans are leading in turnout by about one percent. This was apparently sufficient for the Harris campaign to start cancelling already purchased ad space in the state. Which is a bit telling considering that the campaign has basically more money than god and no way to spend it all before Nov 5th.
However, scroll a bit further down, and you'll see a 10 point gap of women voters over male voters. Keep in mind, white women voted in favor of Trump in 2020.
So there are two competing narratives coming out of this story. One is that Trump is already running away with it in regards to Republican voter turn out. The second is that Harris is running away with it in regards to woman voters. I think the weight goes to the former, since white women are a historically un-reliable voting block for Democrats.
Can you square this for me?
So early votes are very solidly Republican in (NC). Like, if we assume Republicans voted for Trump and Democrats voted for Harris, we'd be calling NC already for Trump. If this were a normal election, we could pretty confidently say that NC is going to go for Trump.
The conflicting result, is that women are voting at an eye-blurring 10% more than male voters. This requires we speculate that women voters (and specifically, Republican women) are breaking disproportionately for Harris. But its notable that +10 to women is a remarkable result. But the historical data would suggest that this favors Trump, since white women mostly vote Trump ('16, and '20) in this state.
So the naive, historical interpretation is that Trump is/ has already won NC. This could be backed up with an additional line of evidence that the Harris campaign has given up on NC.
The speculative interpretation is that Republican women are turning tides on their individual ballots and breaking for Harris. This would be ahistorical given '16 and '20.
The naive historical interpretation fails to explain the gender gap.