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this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2024
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In my opinion, something is going to break within 6 months.
The inflation is still high and the danger of recession is still here.
Inflation is super down, like crazy down.
What's going to happen is that the ripple effects of the current good economy will finally hit people a few months into Trumps term, they'll give him all the credit, then when his policies decimate fucking everything and every poor person, they'll find a way to blame either democrats or trans people and learn nothing.
Inflation is down, but prices haven't come down--they are just not in increasing as fast as they were. We would technically need deflation for that to happen. That said, you are absolutely right that the 'better' economy will get attributed to Trump and he'll go on making messes elsewhere until he dies or leaves office.
Prices don't go down in a healthy economy. Asking for deflation is just asking for a great depression.
That's because crapitalism values profit over people, the environment or even business practices that would keep businesses open. Americans have a really hateful view of "fiduciary duty." It's morally/ethically bankrupt.
Where are you getting that from? That's not what the numbers say.
Go buy a good used car right now.
That isn't an indicator of current inflation. Past inflation, maybe.
People confuse "everything is expensive" with "inflation is currently high". It's an understandable misunderstanding, and part of the reason why Kamala lost.
It's because of hysteretic effects from 4 years ago when they stopped production of cars and fewer cars were sold because people were staying home. Then there was a supply chain crisis because of the aforementioned shutdown. It's inflation because the dollar can buy less than it used to. Things being more expensive is inflation. You're confusing inflation rate with inflation.
Inflation rate and inflation are the same. You're confusing inflation with affordability.
easy, just compare to 5 years ago instead of year-on-year, and that will give you a 24 % inflation.
Now tell me how can you make life affordable again ? increasing wages by 25 % all at once or deflation at 15 % or so? or an all out civil war or something ?
This lie that inflation can only go up without wages keeping up is what the governing class helped by their paid for economists use to keep the working docile until shit hits the fans.
I'm not sure why you're responding to my comment. What you said seems to be completely unrelated to what I said.
That's literally the definition of inflation. "Inflation is a loss of purchasing power that reflects a rise in prices for goods and services over time."
That definition is literally describing a change, as rate of change.
Over the past year, we haven't experienced a loss of purchasing power. We have a lack of purchasing power, but we lost it over the 2-3 years prior to the last year.
This is pretty much the mathematical definition of a rate of change. Like how speed is the rate of change in position over time. After a day of traveling, your position (prices for goods) may be way different than your starting point, but if you're not currently moving, your speed (inflation) is NIL.
Did you see the used car prices a few years ago? They're trending downward.
Inflation is the derivative, it's a rate of change. It doesn't say anything about absolute purchasing power. Past inflation contributed to raising prices massively. Currently, inflation is very low, so prices have stabelized to the new, higher level. To get them back down to pre-covid levels, you would need negative inflation (deflation), which most economists agree is a really bad thing. Instead, the goal must be to increase consumer purchasing power, by raising wages.
Used cars aren't a commodity. Mileage and age of available used cars has increased. Value for your dollar is continuing to go down. It's shrink flation.
[citation needed]
That's sales, not prices. Sales are down because prices are up. For $27k I can buy a Toyota Corolla hybrid and almost a Toyota Prius. Used car prices are slightly down because people are trading in crap with 200k miles.
It is not.
https://www.cargurus.com/research/price-trends
Go buy eggs, bread and milk. Better part of a twenty.
As I've pointed out elsewhere, that's not inflation. That's a lack of purchasing power, not inflation which is a loss of purchasing power. We lost that purchasing power over 2022 and 2023, but the difference in price between November of 2023 and now is relatively small.
Oh neat! Inflation only exists if it happened in the last 12 months. /s
Accumulative inflation is a thing, and it is up 21.8% since 2020.
Sure, but that has almost no impact on Fed policies.
Corporate greed, not inflation.
I literally just bought these three items earlier today. I spent 8. High end of $20 is either exaggerating, or you're buying some fancier foods than me.
These are dollar store brands. $4 milk, 4 bread, 4 eggs, $12+ tax. Location matters, so do food deserts. Last I checked, $12 was more than half of twenty.
That's a little under $10 where I am in Seattle. No tax on food here. If I feel like driving a little bit to Target, it's only $8. I definitely know of food deserts though. The town I grew up in only has Safeway and Walmart. The IGA closed down. Looking at prices, they are about the same as they are here which sucks because the incomes are nowhere near what they are here.
I'm alright with a week of groceries for the four of us choosing $125/wk but I know that is difficult for some.
I think it will take longer than that, there's still a lot of rich people who don't think Trump will really do the tariffs or the mass deportation. Once it becomes clear that is really happening the economy will likely start getting all kinds of messed up fast.
Also, as others have told you, inflation is actually low again currently and that is why rates are coming down now. This is the "soft landing" that everyone was talking about, just in time for Trump to take the helm.
I don't get this ... People liked trump because he wasn't a politician and did what he said . And now that he says he will do things they don't believe him even when he's already put tariffs on shit last time...
Inflation is down to 2.4%. We are fairly close to the Fed's target of 2%.
Which is a made up target with a wide margin. Many economists think a stable inflation rate might be 3% or higher! So 2.4% might already be on target.