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this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2024
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I am fucking astounded that there is still a disconnect even with high level Democrats who can't seem to grasp that much of America is living in a completely alternate reality because of the right-wing propaganda machine, exacerbated by foreign adversaries like Russia.
Lichtman's (one saving grace from this election I never have to hear about this charlatan) keys prove this because he never accounts for the disconnect between what we see versus those in the echo-chamber perceive.
The megaphone of disinformation and sowing of distrust of traditional media, in my view, was the single biggest reason for our loss.
I would have posted this as a post if not violative of Rule 1, but Jon Stewart's The Weekly Show posted a great episode yesterday with a very thoughtful political theorist guest. It focuses on why the disinformation campaigns are responsible for this election.
In short: We have already reached a point where real policy and positions is no match for propaganda. Political power was decisively proven this election to derive from creating and exploiting a false reality, with multiple groups in Trump's coalition directly and decisively voting against their interests because they simply believed Trump more than reality. In Russia this is called "political technology" and Trump followed that playbook exactly.
Is it even possible to learn that lesson in time? I don't think so - I think we missed our last chance. Because Trump's campaign so effectively recognized this, we can also expect them to recognize that media cannot be allowed to be independent and control of the media is how they maintain that false reality. Like Hitler, like Putin, like Xi, expect that Trump's team - given free rein by his sycophantic House, Senate and Supreme court - will ruthlessly crack down on free press. I'd be shocked if it doesn't happen in the first few months.
We're about to enter a very dark time, and by the midterms, it's likely that even with a "free and fair" election, it will be so tainted by state-sponsored misinformation there is no hope of the public voting out the right.
You just explained precisely why I'm working on a plan to get out. This country is no longer safe for my family.
You have any good candidates to suggest?
There are no safe havens for multiple reasons… there are places you can probably guess will be less bad… but there are potential worse consequences for each. For example :
In truth, despite things like inflation getting “better” overall and other economic indicators seeming to point to improvement, an overwhelming number of constituents who participate in voting across the world have felt pain from price increases without sufficient wage increases to offset that pain… and without action being taken that “feels” like it improves people’s material conditions, they are further ripened for the 🐂-💩 scapegoating of demagogues who gladly lie to pretend they will make their lives better… so everywhere they are being elected.
It’s not fair, but history shows us this is what happens…
That isn't entirely true. Looking at soldier numbers in general, NATO without the U.S. has ~ 1.2 Million active, the U.S. as a whole over all branches has roughly 1.4 Million - that's however including National Guard. Without that, it's 1.1 Million. Most NATO countries however do reserves different, Germany alone has 930k in Reserves (meaning, they either had military training or are receiving it on a rotational basis), the U.S. has ~ 300k. All of that combined gives Europe roughly 2.5 Million Soldiers that can be put in to service very fast. Since organizational structures are very similar on all accounts, if need be, that would happen fast. Remember, the EU also has very similar guarantees as NATO, meaning if one is attacked, the others vowed to help. If Europe actually tried with their military spending, we'd be able to outspend the U.S. by a lot - easily. Keep in mind...we're (=Europe) supplying Ukraine with more than the U.S. does, and most of our arms industry is still not even trying. Airbus, Rheinmetall, BAE, KMW, Navantia, Safran, ThyssenKrupp...they are all "trotting along" right now. Except Nuclear Threats, the U.S. hasn't got much to "best" others, IF Europe actually kicks in to gear (granted, that all needs the European Union not to crumble as well...) even technology wise the U.S. isn't that "overwhelming". Look up U33 and U32 - they both sank entire U.S. Carrier Groups in many simulations regularly - they still do. Hell, they even put two Los-Angeles class U-Boats to shame, they sunk them too. Most of the European U-Boats are pretty similar on that aspect as well, the Italians actually have the same and the French Triomphant-class isn't that bad either.
Germany's "collapse" of a Coalition is not necessarily something unprecedent. It has happened a few times and is also a sign for a very healthy democracy. In Germany, most of the governing power comes from ministries and state secretaries - those do not change with the collapse of a coalition. Our system is more robust than that of the U.S. against those kinds of issues (it isn't when the truth just get's thrown out of the window) - however, i also believe that the U.S. System is more robust than most of you give it credit.
And i agree, it's unfair, but as an educated immigrant, actually wanting to work and putting the effort in to learn the language and be considerate of the culture - you'll be fine, even with more right leaning governments throughout Europe.
Also. Even some of the places that are socially nice, could easily implode economically if and when the US does.
Depends. Some countries are easier to immigrate to than others. Ireland is pretty easy, if you have relatively recent Irish ancestry. Personally, I'm looking into Canada.
I have three Irish-German grandparents, and one West African grandparent. My DNA has me about 39% Irish. Is this a possibility for me?
https://www.dfa.ie/irish-embassy/usa/our-services/citizenship/born-outside-ireland/foreign-births-registration-guide/
Thank you. Unfortunately I'm deeply American in my roots.
I watched that as well yesterday. Somber albeit pointed episode. Political theology nails it because we're entering a phase (see Michael Flynn going around promoting the Christian Nationalist movement) where GOP leadership is elevated to a religious faith. And we all know arguments of reason or ethics do not work on those whose belief set is forged on blind faith and loyalty.
It's probably best that we hope for the best and expect the worst. At this point, it seems the only way things will course-correct is when it all comes crashing down. And that won't be pretty for anyone.
Thank you for that. I'm not normally a podcast watcher and didn't know Jon had one. I'll check it out!
Lichtman's still 10 for 11 (considering that Gore did win FL, only to have the SC overturn the results), so I think he'll still be around for a while.
Agreed on the media silos though - the right-wing media ecosystem is almost wholly disconnected from reality and any other viewpoints.
If that’s the terrain you have to fight on, there’s not much you can do about it.
There is, but the solution comes before the indoctrination. It's much easier to vaccinate and inoculate before being infected with the mental illness. After that, the best defense really is just a bullet. You can't operate a functional democracy when the majority of the population are demented and actively working to tear it apart.
Well said. I hesitate to say I've studied this but it's been a subject of passion of mine for some time now, and I've written long write-ups on how to, as you say exactly, inoculate people from mis/disinformation. However, once people lose their anchor to reality, it is extremely hard to get them back.
Are there ways out of our predicament? Maybe. And that's a big maybe. Our moves have to be perfect from hereon out but even so... We may be beyond the point of no return and now the whole thing may have to come crashing down.
Have you learned anything useful on inoculation and deprogramming? I’ve been looking as well but haven’t found much.
Is it like you say, have a true set of idea anchors? But still what if it’s a false anchor?
On a widespread scale, or say individually with someone you know?
Generally speaking, you need to treat it like a substance addiction. For these people, this alternate reality is an escapism; the reaction of anger to fear & disgust is actually a physical addiction; the neural pathways become entrenched and habituated to an extent that anything counter this quite literally takes more mental effort to trudge through — like going off the beaten path and into the jungle.
What this means is cutting off the source and putting them into rehab; in this case, rehab being you having their undivided attention for a couple weeks until you can break through. As you can see, the problem is that (1) You are competing with someone who has a cellphone in their hands 24/7 and you cannot compete with that, time-wise. (2) Even if you can convince this person to go out on a camping trip with you, it takes a certain tact and relationship to actually raise this without entirely burning the bridge and having them shut down.
People fall down this rabbit-hole most frequently due to self-loathing or trauma. It's why the likes of incels are such easy targets. Lonely, young men being told wrong advice get upset that said advice isn't working and they just get increasingly radicalized. It's just another example of Shock Doctrine as described by Naomi Klein. When people are broken down and at their most vulnerable, they are most susceptible to radical changes in personality.
It's another reason why men in their mid-life crisis also run through this. "It's the immigrant to blame for me being jobless; not me!"
My family across several generations shifted from being Republican to progressive Democrat. The circumstances for us was unique and I don't even know if we could've broken out in this day compared to 20-years-ago.
The other boring answer is good education, but that's a long-term investment that takes so long to yield results, and even that is being undermined at every turn. Healthy community; healthy idols can be anchors. They have for me, anyway.
You might be interested in the documentary, "The Brainwashing of My Dad." It ends on a somewhat positive note.
The deprogramming things I've looked at require a person to be with the person being deprogrammed almost all the time. You have to be able to shut down their bullshit immediately, and that's if they already trust you. It's basically impossible for most of us to do because we have fucking jobs.
Yeah billionaires with their finger on the media scale. We can't allow them to get away with this.
Not much we can do, is there?
We lick our wounds and then we organize and prepare starting now and not wait until the next election
Organize to do what?
To put up another milquetoast centrist who fails to capture the attention of the working class? Or, more likely, is barred from running by the fascist regime?
Well, how has it been done successfully in other countries?