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this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2024
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Different circumstances, same result.
Previously McConnell prevented the Senate from voting on Obama's nomination for months before the election.
In this case, Biden could nominate someone, and Schumer would undoubtedly call a vote ASAP, but then you'd risk the vote failing because of Manchin and Sinema. They've already publicly betrayed the Democratic party and they're both on their way out; there's nothing for them to gain by playing ball with a SCOTUS nominee.
The result would be exactly as before: Trump would come into office and get a SCOTUS pick right away, the only thing that might be different is whether McConnell or Scott gets to submit the pick. Hell, he might get to do it anyway if Alito and/or Thomas retire, so why give up another seat?
They’d need to do what they do before bringing a bill to the floor. Make sure that they have the votes ahead of time.
If you get one of those two people bought in on a particular justice candidate, then you could tell the current sitting Justice “it’s safe,” and you could fast-track the new person.
That said, there is still risk of someone having a change of heart at the last minute.
Yeah, I don't get why people think they'd just YOLO this and find out how Manchinema would vote on the senate floor. If one of them isn't locked in, then definitely don't start it, but maybe Sinema, for all her mercenary ways, might think abortion actually did matter and a 7-2 court is just dumb.