this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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The reason this is a big deal is because Russia is the 3rd biggest military in the world, and Ukraine would not be able to strike Russian territory with long range missiles unless the USA intervened. This creates a potential casus belli between Russia and the USA and if Russia chooses to ignore it then it sets the conditions for additional escalation of the threat against Russian national security. It's not a moral issue.
If you see a problem with a country being able to respond, in kind, to attacks by a state actor against it, then you do not stand for emancipation or egalitarianism.
(Yes, I know history didn't start in 2022. There is an undeniable discontinuous shift in the nature of the conflict at that point though.)
Russia has been fully aware of the dynamics of supply between Ukraine and the USA, all along. Nothing has changed besides rockets that can go somewhat farther. If it's not a nuke and not a military alliance, it doesn't draw more powers in, it just makes the war more costly.
When one does a special military operation on another country's undisputed territory, one accepts that there might be a counter-operation.
States. Do. Not. Have. Rights. This should go without saying on this site. The actions of the gov't of Ukraine, or more relevantly of the United States in support of Ukraine, are justified only insofar as they are beneficial to actual human beings. Risking escalation here pretty clearly fails that criterion. The situation on the ground right now is that the front has been largely stagnant for 2 years, and the incoming US admin has little appetite for continuing the conflict. This is an opportunity for a negotiated end to the war, not a time to be blowing things up even further. This isn't "emancipating" Ukrainians, it's just extending death and destruction in a moment where there's a real path towards winding it down.
Sure, and if we're fortunate, the Russians have accepted that possibility and will get over it. On the other hand, by sending American missiles to be fired on another country's undisputed territory, America accepts that there might be a counter-operation. Do you trust either Biden or Trump to be the adult in the room and accept that if Russia starts using it as justification for attacks on Americans?
I totally agree: it's disappointing and ill-advised, but not unprecedented.
If Ansar Allah shot a Russian-made missile at the US (or even at Camp Lemonnier) that would be funny and righteous.