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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image depicts one of Iran's many anti-ship options, which include missiles, drones, mines, midget submarines, and more. The particular missile shown is the Abu Mahdi cruise missile.


Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.

preamble

I don't think I've ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we'll see how that all goes.

US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren't currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.

Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be "If we can't occupy this land, then you won't be able to, either," as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah's success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.

The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it's obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it's not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn't all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran's railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China's government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we'll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven't yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.

Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it's difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] qcop@hexbear.net 96 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Mélenchon from La France Insoumise (left populist/socdem/demsoc) had an interview where they discussed his party foreign policy positions here is a quick recap:

  • They are opposing the "israelo"-american war against Iran and would like to organize a diplomatic front against it, but are criticizing the Iranian government and hope they would change over time (w/o intervention)
  • He said "Israel" are the most dangerous country currently in west asia.
  • He said that under his doctrine the french UN troops would not retreat but oppose "Israel" if they were to push and invade Lebanon as it is their mission as an "opposition force" with a UN mandate. He said he would also alert all countries and militias that if french soldier part of FINUL would be attacked (like it recently happened), the french army would retaliate against the aggressors.
  • They want to get out of NATO as soon as possible as they deem it a tool of US domination and their goal is to have an independant France
  • They recognize Taiwan as part of China. They would not intervene if there was a conflict between China and Taiwan as "it is their business" and they want to reinforce cooperation with China as they share common goals (stability etc.). They also want closer partnerships with China (and India as well) in space notably rather than continuing with the "western space station".
  • They want to reestablish discussion with Russia to find common ground as for them Russia is part of Europe and relationship should be more friendly (although he laments them being capitalist and said Europe was safer during the USSR than currently). They refuse to wage a war against them as they don't want a nuclear holocaust (France and Russia being 2 nuclear powers). He denounces Ukraine invasion but reminds the interviewer that Russia had 3 red lines for NATO expansions, Ukraine being one of them. He wants to discuss a real end to the war and referendums in the Donbass and other russian speaking regions so that they can choose whether they want to leave Ukraine or not (reminding that the western part of Ukraine did "bad things" to their russian speaking population in the east". He said as a direct quote "I do not want to bomb Russia and I want to remind people that they lost 20millions of their citizens [for the liberation of Europe from Nazism]"
  • He criticized the colonial mentality of the current french governement towards Algeria and wants to improve the relationship as he thinks diplomacy on equal footing is the only way forward.
  • He wants to create a pact of countries that border the mediterranean sea to establish a joint management of the common water body (Climate change, sea pollution, how to handle water for fires etc.)
  • Complained about Macron neo-colonialism speeches and actions in Africa and wants to mend the relationships between France and these African nations and treat them as equal partners. (As Mélenchon was a big supporter of Mitterrand back in the 70-80s, I'm suspicious of France and him in regards to the african continent, even moreso seeing how France treat their defacto colonies they still possess around the globe)

I would highly encourage you to watch the full interview with the auto-translated subtitles as I think it gives a really good picture of what their Foreign Policy vision is, although I am not completely aligned with all his positions I find them good enough and I think the world would be a far better place if these were implemented. I hope they will be able to seize power in 2027 and do what they say they are gonna do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1AzW4zhwrc

Edit: Forgot to share this gem from a few years ago where a rapper did a freestyle with Mélenchon as the subject lmao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SYuP98Delw

[-] TheoryofChange@hexbear.net 31 points 2 weeks ago

Almost shockingly reasonable for a major party in international-community-1 international-community-2

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 5 points 2 weeks ago

yeah I wonder how he thinks porky will let him get away with this, which alone would be enough for a capital strike if not for his similarly radical (for a western politician) economic policies

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 27 points 2 weeks ago

How well is France insoumise and Melechon doing in polls? I cant remember much beyond him falling off a bit after losing to Macron in the runoff that one time.

[-] qcop@hexbear.net 34 points 2 weeks ago

La France Insoumise are currently the biggest left party in France. They are around 12-13% in the polls (RN is polling at 34%) and currently in 3rd place in polls, but please be aware polls in France notoriously are always overhyping the far right "Rassemblement National" while downplaying "La France Insoumise". I would say they have a reasonable chance of making it to the second round of the presidential elections. For example in april 2021, Ipsos put LFI at 8% and RN at 26% with a margin of error of (0.4 to 1.1 point) and the final election results 1 year later (so approximately the same span as we currently have), Mélenchon (LFI) got 21.95% and Le Pen (RN) got 23.15%.

There has been relentless media campaigns for the past few years painting them as extremists, islamists, antisemites and undemocratic. It does not feel like it has worked as well as the bourgeoisie and the media expected (although It clearly had an impact on the centrists) and Mélenchon is usually really good when campaigning as he has a lot of charisma and a good political program.

I expect LFI and their poll number to slowly increase (based on historical trends for the past 3 presidential elections) and suddenly get way bigger on election day.

Here is a picture showcasing polls (in blue) vs actual results (in red) between Mélenchon and Le Pen for the past 3 presidential elections

[-] jack@hexbear.net 14 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

imo he's the next president of France and ushers in a partial Western European pink tide

[-] qcop@hexbear.net 10 points 2 weeks ago

We'll see. I'm reasonably hopeful he could win, I'm more skeptical of them being to accomplish what they want to do (like the 6th republic) due to them wanting to stay inside bourgeois democracy.

Although they are at least trying in a different way (like not being a traditional party allowing them to keep the same line and not being diluted). Also the way they held the line on Palestine since Al-Aqsa Flood despite all the attacks and even made it possible for Rima Hasan to be elected in the EU parliament. They also absolutely refuse to condemn more radical parties and groups on their left.This gives me hope they won't compromise/fold as soon as the capitalist class and the rest of the EU start pressuring them.

In any case LFI is communist friendly and a lot of them actually support Mélenchon and not the French communist party in the election (who hasn't been communist for a long time unfortunately)

[-] UmbraVivi@hexbear.net 25 points 2 weeks ago

Way better than the German left party ngl

[-] demeritum@lemmygrad.ml 26 points 2 weeks ago

Bar is in hell.

[-] qcop@hexbear.net 15 points 2 weeks ago

The guy single handedly saved France's left and prevented it from falling off like it did in almost every other European country. He created an entire new generation of left cadres IMO. (It helps a lot he is Marxist)

He was a trot in his youth (funnily enough one of the only prominent old trot that did not turn their coat. The rest of them almost all went neoliberal lmao) and even though LFI program is quite moderate, the heads of LFI are IMO way more radical than what they let on.

[-] demeritum@lemmygrad.ml 24 points 2 weeks ago

Complained about Macron neo-colonialism speeches and actions in Africa and wants to mend the relationships between France and these African nations and treat them as equal partners. (As Mélenchon was a big supporter of Mitterrand back in the 70-80s, I’m suspicious of France and him in regards to the african continent, even moreso seeing how France treat their defacto colonies they still possess around the globe)

Not just defacto, dejure they are still one of the few UNO appointed colonizers.

[-] qcop@hexbear.net 5 points 2 weeks ago

You are right.

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 4 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

I found YouTube links in your comment. Here are links to the same videos on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

Link 1:

Link 2:

this post was submitted on 04 May 2026
133 points (100.0% liked)

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