Ukraine does not give up any of the territory it claims
Think this is more of a legal/constitutional issue, about Ukraine legally recognising the territory as Russian. The territory can be legally recognised as temporarily occupied though, which Ukraine did with Crimea post 2014. Both Ukraine and Russia could recognise territory that they legally claim but do not control as "temporarily occupied" to make a deal go through, similar to how Germany was split after WW2.
Beyond the economics, there is simply no "hard power" element of the alliance. Russia and China said plenty of nice things to Iran and even sold Iran some military equipment beforehand, but when the time came to defend Iran, Russia and China were nowhere to be found. Even in Ukraine, China hasn't directly aided Russia in military equipment over the past three years, Russia had to go to North Korea for direct military aid in equipment and personnel, and purchased the intellectual property and designs of one way attack drones from Iran. Contrast that with the direct support the United States has given both Israel and Ukraine.
It's a breakthrough at the weakest point of the new Donetsk defence trench line, which has been heavily supported by Russian airstrikes over the past few weeks. Thousands of FABs dropped on this part of the front alone over the past few months.
A French researcher predicted such a push in July based on Russian airstrikes
Main thing is Ukraine simply does not have enough infantry, and can't shoot down Russian aircraft. The breakthrough here is at the most vulnerable point of the new Donetsk defence/trench line. The trenches and reinforcements exist, but Ukraine doesn't have enough people to man the trenches, and Russia has used over 1300 FAB glide bombs over the past month in this sector alone, to soften up the Ukrainian lines at their most vulnerable points. The Russian breakthrough at this point in time is mainly infantry, no mechanised element.
The last US Air Force aircraft stationed at Diego Garcia, the 4x B-52H Stratofortress bombers and 6x F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft, have now left the island. One of the F-15Es lost a wheel at Diego Garcia, and landed in Japan without it. The island is empty (only 2x KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft stationed there on August 5) for the first time since March 2025, when the military buildup against Iran started in earnest, and 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were stationed there temporarily and carried out missions in Yemen against Ansarallah/the Houthis.
The US military CENTCOM area of operations (which includes the Middle East and West Asia) also has a new commander. General Kurilla is no longer in charge of CENTCOM. Former Admiral, now General Brad Cooper is in charge of CENTCOM.
It appears with the withdrawal of US military assets from the Middle East and West Asia, and with the General that orchestrated the war plan being relived of his post, that the direct war/military action against Iran is over, for now. The next phase of operations will be (and is currently) a maximum pressure campaign on all fronts: a full occupation of Gaza (the central issue that we must not forget), disarmament of Hezbollah, Al Jolani in Syria, and interdiction of Yemeni supply lines.
~~The United States Airforce~~ Customs and Border Protection, for some reason the aircraft shows up as USAF on flight radar, but it is operated by CBP and is owned by the DHS, has operated an MQ-9B SkyGuardian/Predator B MALE UAV asset "TROY701" over Mexican airspace today as part of a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) mission, circling to the west of Mexico City. This is the first time a ~~US military aircraft has operated over Mexican airspace (outside of a search and rescue mission)~~ a CBP UAV has flown deeply into Mexican airspace, since the beginning of the second term of the Trump presidency.
Source, xcancel
Twitter source
From the brochure, PDF format
However I highly doubt that the MQ-9Bs which are part of CBP missions and visible on public flight trackers have the hardpoints for mounting weapons. They are most likely unarmed. Photos as recent as March 2024 show no hardpoints for weapons. The specific sensor that the CBP uses for reconnaissance is called VADER: