[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 20 points 11 hours ago

Not to this extent, and with the recent ceasefire deal and Israeli presence on Lebanon's border with Syria, the amount of Hezbollah infrastructure that will exist south of the Litani river is uncertain. Supplying Lebanon by sea means having to go through the Suez canal and past the Israeli Navy. Shipments to Lebanon would have to be directed first to "man in the middle" countries like Greece and Italy, and then Lebanon, to try evade interception (direct shipments from Iran to Lebanon would be highly likely to get inspected, and this kind of tactic was used in the past). It's quite different from Iran supplying Yemen by sea directly, where that's not an issue. And even then, just yesterday Israel bombed Yemen's port infrastructure, including tug boats at civilian ports, to prevent Yemen from receiving Iranian shipments. Israel could do the same to Lebanon and no one would stop them realistically.

Losing a land supply route is a negative, there is no way around this.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 16 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

Direct link to the article

Because of the nature of ballistic missiles, projectiles do land in an elongated elliptical pattern like that, usually in the orientation from where the missile is launched from.

Interesting that only three of the six submunition packages landed on target. Those that landed on target managed to pierce straight through 10 storey buildings though.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 32 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

It looks like Israel hit one of the main power stations in Sanaa, so going after energy infrastructure in Yemen. Oil and/or gas depots were probably also hit, though it's too early to say exactly what was hit, aside from electrical infrastructure in Sanaa as the electricity went out during the bombings. Yemen also fired a ballistic missile at Israel, during which there was an interception attempt in Israeli airspace, leading to the missile crashing into the ground and destroying a building.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 15 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Yes it's a loss, and accepting deals like this, with so many concessions to the enemy, is part of it, it's what a defeat entails.

I'm not trying to weasel around it, this is the reality. It's either accept such deals or fight until everyone is dead. That is the very unfortunate reality. It's why Hezbollah took the deal earlier, it's why talks between Israel and Hamas are so advanced right now.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 25 points 2 days ago

Insert Kissinger quote about being America's friend here.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 33 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

This is quite different, the negotiations are in Cairo this time and not Doha (Netanyahu is even set to attend), and there are rumoured clauses that would allow Israel to continue military operations in the south, the IDF would only completely withdraw from the north.

Yes the terms of these ceasefires are quite bad, the situation is quite negative, but what is the alternative, fighting to the last Palestinian, to the last Lebanese, fighting until all supply routes are cut? That's even worse.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 32 points 2 days ago

The US will not carry out airstrikes against Turkish backed forces. They'll either get Turkey to stop, or abandon the SDF/YPG positions there.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 37 points 2 days ago

Yes, the situation is not positive. It looks as if the SNA, with Turkish close air support, will attempt to encircle the SDF/YPG positions at Kobani. There are also US forces located in Kobani on the side of the SDF/YPG.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 56 points 2 days ago

More and more reports incoming about a potential ceasefire agreement/prisoner exchange deal with regards to Gaza. The attitude and media reports are of a very similar tone to the Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon. No matter how "bad or good" the ceasefire deal is, a ceasefire is a ceasefire and will bring desperately needed relief to millions under siege in Gaza.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 41 points 2 days ago

Uhh does Ukraine want to exist?

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 46 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

A Minuteman III ICBM was actually successfully tested (along with it's MIRV component) a few months ago, just to re-establish that it still works and reaffirm deterrence. But that's exactly why the US will modernise their nuclear forces. The Minuteman III ICBMs are so old that they can't effectively be maintained for much longer. So the US will need to build new missiles and warheads to replace them.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 69 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

In one way I'm glad some of them aren't on here to see this and having to deal with our stupid arguments, the last few weeks have just been really bad. They're probably feeling the same emotions we are feeling times a hundred, and way more complicated and nuanced, as they actually live there and have a personal attachment to their country. Imagine commenting on and correctly predicting the downfall of you and/or your loved ones' country, for example. And then seeing people, maybe even someone you know being freed from prisions. And then the country gets bombed by a powerful adversary. In another scenario, imagine returning to your homeland after months of bombings, after a ceasefire agreement gets singed (no matter how bad the terms, a ceasefire is a ceasefire). That's extremely emotional. Being on the internet and arguing with a bunch of people (mostly westerners) who didn't even know what the SAA, 1974 agreement, the blue line, South Litani area, HTS, SNA, SDF, etc, were until a few weeks ago is probably not the best course of action in such a scenario.

I'll keep on reporting until the end, no matter how bad it gets, someone has to do it after all. Or good, never give up hope comrades, even in the worst hours, we have to be resilient, there is no other choice.

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MarmiteLover123

joined 2 years ago