The Russian A-50s have started flying a few weeks ago, for the first time in over a year. So AWACS aircraft are back. They are expensive and hard to make because they require a lot of modern sophisticated electronics to work on the modern battlefield. You can't build an AWACS with 40 year old sensor equivalents and expect it to work against modern electronic countermeasures. Russia is working on building A-100 AWACS aircraft, with testing ongoing. The current Ukraine war and sanctions have hurt the modernisation programs (Su-57, Su-75, A-100), with focus moved to more pressing issues like artillery and armour production. Only the Su-57 appears to have survived.

Looks like we have our first F-16 shot down by Russia in Ukraine now. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources (including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy) have confirmed that an F-16 was lost in combat.

Zelenskyy's statement

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Today, Captain Pavlo Ivanov was tragically killed during an F-16 combat mission. The guy was only 26. My condolences to his family and to all of Pavlo’s brothers-in-arms.

As I've already discussed, the early model F-16s Ukraine got are roughly equivalent to their MiG-29s in capability, only being superior in electronic countermeasures (ECM) and native support for American munitions. These early 4th generation aircraft aren't a match for Russian 4.5 generation fighters in a straight fight.

The Ukrainian F-16s have also been relying exclusively on this ECM (provided by the external AN/ALQ-131 external pod) and terrain masking (flying low close to the ground) to suppress Russian Ground Based Air Defense (GBAD), and flying with no anti radiation missiles for suppressing these defences. While a successful tactic up until now, it's highly risky. If the ECM fails or is bypassed, the pilot has no way to suppress any GBAD firing at them. If you look at the Russian air campaign in Ukraine, the escort fighters or strike fighters carrying out the strikes themselves (in Su-35s and Su-34s) are always carrying at least one Kh-31P anti radiation missile. In the US Navy air campaign against Yemen, the EA-18G Growlers are flying escort missions with at least two AGM-88E anti radiation missiles, along with highly advanced ECM that is much more sophisticated than the AN/ALQ-131.

I'm not a fighter pilot, but if I was and you told me I had to fly a strike mission in a block 20 F-16 for Ukraine in Sumy, where our high level friendly Ukrainian GBAD (in an S-300V battery) has been destroyed, and I'm going up against the best of the best Russian GBAD and combat air patrols in S-400 GBAD and Su-35 fighter jets, and I'll have to fly a nap of the earth/terrain masking flight path to the launch point for my bombs, with only an ECM pod and no anti radiation missiles to suppress the Russian GBAD, and that there would be no allied Ukrainian aircraft higher up with anti radiation missiles to act as an escort, and all I have to try fend off the Russian Su-35s is the crappy radar on the block 20 F-16, along with 2 AIM-120 and AIM-9 air to air missiles, I would not fly the mission.

The treats must flow. As seen by the various tantrums on social media about the price of the Nintendo Switch 2, US society is unable to accept the treats (cheap electronic consumer goods) being shut off. Hence tarrifs exemptions of electronic consumer goods. Truly a sad society.

I'm going to guess this is the Middle East Spectator telegram, because of the wording.

Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, will ONLY discuss the issue of nuclear proliferation – not the ballistic missile program or Iran's support for regional groups.

This is why Iran keeps the nuclear option open in the first place, so negotiations are made around this and not the missile program or Axis of Resistance. Iran's missile program is well beyond the point of negotiations, they have so many of these missiles that restrictions are impossible. The US and Israel are in direct conflict with various elements of the resistance at this time.

Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: 'While leaving the negotiations room, we encountered the U.S. Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and exchanged greetings out of courtesy, as is customary in diplomacy. Nothing content-related was said.'

Yeah sure, and I'm a millionaire

The discussions took place in a calm and polite atmosphere, and the American side did not issue any threats'

Yeah the negotiations will take place in a clam and positive atmosphere, that's a prerequisite for having them in the first place. There's no need for any verbalised threats to be made, because the threat is obvious to everyone. While these negotiations took place in Oman, a US aircraft carrier with F-35 stealth jets was operating off of the coast of Oman. 6 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers are in Diego Garcia, 30% of the entire fleet, bombing Yemen and leaving large holes in mountains. There's no need to say anything there, both sides going into the negotiations understand this. At first Iran said that they would never negotiate under "maximum pressure" and that even negotiations around their nuclear program were off of the table, yet they are doing exactly that, negotiating about the nuclear program under maximum pressure.

I'm glad negotiations are taking place of course, but Iranian media is not going to be fully open about this. At least we're not at the stage of scapegoating Pezeshkian for everything yet, when there are valid military and diplomatic reasons for the current course of events (he is a very easy scapegoat to be fair).

The treats must flow

What happened there is that COVID happened, and that kind of delayed the whole timeframe of world events and gave us Biden and the Ukraine war. Without COVID, we would have got Trump 2 immediately after Trump 1, and all this escalation with Iran would've happened four years ago.

The other issue is that once Iran goes past a certain point in pursuing a nuclear weapon, it guarantees a US attack. Hence the stalling out at 60% enrichment of uranium. Iran uses the nuclear issue as a bargaining chip in light of this.

Yeah, if it's restricted to an air campaign, the US can do it. There's enough stockpiles of the long range standoff weapons they plan to use for the initial phase (even if it comes at a cost of readiness to other theatres like China/the Pacific), and if that initial phase is successful and opens up a pathway for the F-35s and B-2s, they have plenty of stand in munitions. Iran doesn't have a direct answer to US air power, so any Iranian response or preemptive action would be asymmetrical in nature. Key US strategic assets, like aircraft carriers, the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, etc, would be kept out of range of Iranian anti ship and land attack missiles, similar to the current situation in Yemen. The US is not stupid enough to have an aircraft carrier cruise up the Persian Gulf into a hail of missiles. That would only happen if or when Iranian anti ship capabilities are suppressed or destroyed.

A ground war is a whole different story.

China would never do that, they can't sell of the bonds and treasuries because it would be in effect a self tarrif on Chinese exports (decrease value of the dollar + increase value of the Yuan). At the end of the day the US can't afford to lose Chinese exports because their domestic industry is uncompetitive versus China, and China can't afford to lose the US market which makes up 19% of total Chinese exports, the rest of the world is already oversaturated with Chinese exports. Both sides will have to come to some kind of compromise, hence the announcements that consumer electronics and chip manufacturing are now exempt from tarrifs.

Yeah apparently the US tried to negotiate with Hamas independently without Israel. Witkoff was rumoured to have said something along the lines of: we [the USA] care more about getting the hostages out than Israel does. But there's no confirmation on that quote, it's a rumour.

(presumably US diplomatic officials tasked with Russia aren't completely cloistered off from US diplomatic officials tasked with Iran)

The chief negotiator for both potential Russian and Iranian deals on the US side is literally the same guy, Steve Witkoff. He visited Russia on Friday, and will visit Oman on Saturday, the day after. So he has the closest thing to complete information and the complete trust of Trump. Witkoff also negotiates with Israel, and has even been rumoured to have made contact with Hamas. So he has the closest thing to a complete picture of anyone involved.

Iran is in a tough position where no one wants them to have nuclear weapons, so they'll have to go it alone there if they choose to do so. And the USA and Israel consider Iran with nuclear weapons a massive red line for many reasons, including preventing further nuclear proliferation in the region. And also due to how Iran is prepared to give it's allies in active conflict with Israel, most of whom are non state or quasi state actors, some of it's most advanced weapons. This is something pretty much no other state does, Iran does not play by the same "rules" as the major global powers here (in the USA, China and Russia). Iran giving Ansar Allah in Yemen the Palestine-2 missile (a Fattah-1/Kheibar Shekan variant) and the ability to do some local production on it is a much bigger deal than people realise, that's Iran's most advanced ballistic missile. What would be the US equivalent, giving Ukraine or Taiwan F-35s and some local production of its components? And if Iran does get nuclear capabilities, what would be the weapons platform that delivers them to the target? Most likely their Fattah-1/Kheibar Shekan missiles. Iran would basically have the hypothetical ability to give anyone they want Pershing II level nuclear weapons. I don't think they would do that of course, but the USA and Israel obviously see that as a non starter. So if Iran wants nuclear weapons, they'll have to endure a US led bombing campaign during their development.

With today's negotiations between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine war now concluded in St Petersburg, and negotiations between the USA and Iran taking place tomorrow in Oman, what's everyone's thoughts on this? It would be cool if we could all give our opinions and discuss, even if we disagree with each other of course. Open debate is always best, even with such highly serious topics. These are some of the most important negotiations in modern history. If they fail, we could be looking at large scale warfare and associated events that could lead to the death of many and seismic shifts in the world economy that would make tarrifs look small. Or not, hopefully.

My view is quite simple and not very insightful, the losing sides have to offer up large concessions to halt ongoing war or prevent war. Ukraine is suffering losses and losing to Russia in Ukraine, so for any "peace deal" to go through, Ukraine and the USA will have to offer some substantial concessions to Russia, such as the four oblasts in the east (or even more territory) becoming effectively Russian, future elections, no NATO, etc. If those concessions are not offered, Russia will continue the war until it reaches it's ultimate conclusion. On the other hand, Iran has suffered some substantial losses in its Axis of Resistance network, and it's deterrence is at a historical low (no Operation True Promise III/Israeli attack on Iranian soil not responded to, large US military buildup in the region), so Iran will have to offer some substantial concessions to the USA and Israel around it's uranium enrichment levels, nuclear program and potentially other assets like the Axis of Resistance, otherwise I believe the USA and Israel will go to war against Iran.

Do hexbears think the fate of Ukraine and Iran is linked somehow between the two potential deals? Can Russia play an important role in preventing war against Iran and brokering a "nuclear deal"? Can the USA play a vital role in getting Ukraine to offer up large concessions in exchange for pausing the war there and achieving a "peace deal"? I certainly hope that in both cases peace can be achieved obviously, but if war is inevitable it will happen.

On a lighter note, is Pezeshkian the Iranian Gorbachev? Is Zelenskyy the Ukrainian Churchill?