—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Iranian fighter jets are currently intercepting drones above Qom, Hamedan and Kashan

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Be'er Shebaa

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Israeli attack on 'Farabi' Hospital in Kermanshah.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇮🇷🇮🇱| Just so you know, the recently published videos by the IDF, allegedly claiming to have destroyed Iran’s F-14s, are canabalized/airframe F-14s used as decoy. They don’t have any strategical value.

I immediately recognised one of them that’s stationed in Isfahan for 3-4 years.

Coords: 32.7627438, 51.8871061

—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 BREAKING: Semi-official Iranian state media, Fars News, reports that the news about Iran agreeing to a ceasefire is false, and that Iran will show this fact 'on the ground' in the next few hours

@Middle_East_Spectator

Gusano Rubio being an unhinged idiot yelling about uranium and the moon on TV

PressTV stream says they "might" be 30 minutes into the ceasefire

France, whos statement to Israel attacking Iran was "Israel has a right to defend itself" is trying to lead an EU run mediation team, super unbias mediator https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/france-leads-eu-bid-to-mediate-iran--israel--escalation-amid

Al Mayadeen's correspondent:

Preliminary reports indicate that the explosions that were heard in the surroundings of the Taji camp north of Baghdad were the result of a attack carried out by an unknown drone

The explosion hit a radar as well as an electrical technical department in the Taji Camp north of Baghdad

video: https://xcancel.com/sahatenglish/status/1935011093149004221#m

Netanyahu to ministers after the meeting: "Please remain completely silent and refrain from giving any interviews or commenting on recent developments."

https://xcancel.com/SprinterObserve/status/1935081948101108114#m

At the start of the Israeli attacks on the 13th, Mossad reportedly contacted IRGC commanders, warning them to resign from the Islamic Republic within 12 hours or be killed—urging them to record videos saying things like: “We won’t sacrifice our lives for those who ruined our country for 46 years.”

https://xcancel.com/SuppressedNws/status/1937252522730586440#m

7 IOF soldiers wounded, https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-857683

Videos of attack on Qatar:

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1937199999265206413#m

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1937198793176572200#m

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1937197160648393092#m

https://xcancel.com/aasimkh70437952/status/1937199206823002380#m

https://xcancel.com/SprinterObserve/status/1937201087280251074#m

https://xcancel.com/ragipsoylu/status/1937190616347365573#m

https://tankie.tube/w/xxMA25AMUhAQ5wvMBGgsxQ

https://xcancel.com/PressTV/status/1937279478599729251#m

Adding as I find them

— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 What was the reason Iran agreed to the ceasefire, and did Israel 'win'? I will explain it to you straight.

In the opening strike, due to a combination of widespread internal sabotage and extensive Israeli airstrikes, most of Iran's long/medium range air defenses were wiped out.

Since day 2 or 3 of the war, the Israelis have operated with almost complete freedom over Iran's skies. First in the West, then gradually expanding to the center. We saw even UAVs operating quite freely at some point, a tell tale sign that something is truly wrong. This matter of air superiority is key to understanding the missile situation.

While Iran still has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers, that's not the issue at all. The issue is, due to total Israeli air superiority, no large-scale missile attack could be staged without receiving an immediate preemptive strike from the enemy. The moment Iran takes the launchers out of the underground base, Israel detects this, and strikes with impunity.

This forced Iran to carry out missile operations with smaller hit-and-run tactics, using older long range missiles from bases in the Center and the East, and unfortunately Iran's capability to respond in large volumes gradually declined.

In these circumstances, realistically, a war cannot be maintained. Since the first few days, real deterrence was already gone, despite some periodic strikes on 'less than relevant' targets (with the notable exception of Weizmann institute and Unit 8200 Logistics HQ). Launching 10-20 missiles daily would be a waste if it is not an instrument to a wider military objective.

Militarily speaking, Israel is the clear winner, and there is no sugarcoating this. However, politically, Israel lost. The Israelis did not achieve most of their main objectives. The Islamic Republic still stands, Iran's nuclear program still has a future, and martyred commanders have been replaced.

Israel's main achievement in this war is the near complete dismantlement of Iranian AD sites, and as a result, the successful suppression of large-scale missile fire from Iran. This forces Iran into a corner, as it was no longer able to keep up with the escalation.

The problem now is the following: Israel will use this ceasefire to re-arm itself. It will prepare for another war, more aggression, and to gradually achieve the goal they really wanted in the first place; regime change in Iran. It is also likely that they will try to implement the 'Lebanon model' in Iran — and strike targets inside Iran during the ceasefire, with relative impunity and no response.

How will Iran deal with this issue? Iran also has to rebuild its capabilities. Once again, missiles and launchers are not the issue. Iran will repair the collapsed tunnel entrances of missile bases in the West, and almost all missile bases (with the exception of Tabriz) will become operational again. But then what? The air defense network is gone, the same situation will instantly repeat itself.

Iran somehow has to find a way to guarantee that this ceasefire is not one-sided, that it rebuilds its capabilities, and that it finds a solution that guarantees its own survival and prevents any new Israeli aggression. In my opinion, the only way this can be done is rushing towards a nuclear bomb, nothing more and nothing less.

Because I respect my readers' intelligence, I will not pretend like this was some sort of 'military win' for Iran, although Israel did not fully win either.

But please read my analysis above, there are some nuances and some important points (in the political scene for example, Israel lost).

An advice to my colleagues of other channels: If we cannot acknowledge our own shortcomings and defeats, then we will never improve. Now is the time for self-reflection.

Iran has lots of work to do. So let's get to work.

I will always stand with the Islamic Republic and its leadership, no matter what happens.

@Middle_East_Spectator

Let me know your thoughts on this analysis @i_c_b_m@lemmygrad.ml @ComradePupIvy@lemmygrad.ml and whoever is online!

Can't help but feel this is under reported or something. Like, most Dutch left wing channels I follow barely mention what's happening apart from maybe 1 or 2 posts. Am I making too big a deal out of it or do they not care enough?

Okay, then crisis over right? Israel can stop attacking and this ends? ... Right?

BREAKING: “We’re Talking About Hours” — Gaza’s Deputy Health Minister Warns Nasser Hospital Near Total Collapse

https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/1935030967195803873#m

Putin: "We warn Washington against providing direct military aid to Israel or even considering it."

https://xcancel.com/MosabAbuToha/status/1935063717856821275#m

Lindsey Graham calls for essentially a regime change in Iran. Some sources say that Hebrew media is reporting that the US will announce joining the war anytime soon.