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submitted 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.


Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.

Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).

Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 35 points 2 weeks ago

In a letter sent to several countries to announce tariffs on their products, Donald Trump used a paragraph identical to the one that appears in all the documents. The passage threatens to impose new tariffs if the countries react and justifies the measure with an alleged risk to US national security.

In the letters to other countries, Trump used a standard text that changed only the name of the recipient and the amount of the tariff. These versions stated that the US would be willing to maintain trade relations, but that the tariffs were necessary to make trade fairer and more balanced. In the case of Brazil, it was different. Trump began the letter by mentioning former president Jair Bolsonaro, criticized decisions by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and announced the opening of an investigation against the country.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 34 points 3 weeks ago

Yemenis Mobilize in Saada in Massive Marches to Reaffirm Support for Gaza - Telesur English

Article

Under the slogan “Firm with Gaza: Preparation and Mobilization to Confront Aggression,” the northern Yemeni governorate of Saada witnessed 37 simultaneous mass marches this Friday, spanning the provincial capital and at least 14 districts.

Thousands of Yemenis gathered in symbolic squares such as the Prophet’s Birthday Plaza and the Martyrs’ Leader Square in Khawlan Amer, as well as in towns across Razih, Kitaf, Ghamr, Adh-Dhaher, and other districts.

From the central plaza, Governor Mohammed Awad praised the overwhelming public turnout and reaffirmed Yemen’s unwavering solidarity with the Palestinian people, denouncing what he called the “shameful silence” of Arab and Islamic governments in the face of “Zionist and American crimes” in Gaza.

The official statement issued by the demonstrators condemned what they described as global complicity and inaction, which they argue emboldens Israel to continue its military campaign.

The declaration emphasized that the Yemeni people—guided by what it called a “Quranic liberation project” and a “firm identity of faith”—would not retreat from their support for Gaza, Palestine, and Al-Aqsa Mosque, and would not be intimidated by threats from Israel or the United States.

The statement also praised the “heroic stances and steadfastness” of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, calling their resistance a source of pride and inspiration for Yemenis.

Finally, the demonstrators called on Arab and Muslim nations to boycott Israeli and U.S. products, describing economic resistance as a “powerful and accessible weapon” and the minimum moral obligation in the face of what they termed genocide in Gaza.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 33 points 2 weeks ago

Mexico Investigates Former President Peña Nieto Over Pegasus Spyware - Telesur English

Article

The Marker alleges that Peña Nieto received US$25 million in bribes to authorize the use of the Israeli spyware system. On Tuesday, Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office (FGR) announced the launch of an investigation into former President Enrique Peña Nieto, a conservative politician who led the country from 2012 to 2018.

The probe was triggered by a report published by the Israeli outlet The Marker, which alleged that Peña Nieto received US$25 million in bribes to authorize the use of the Israeli spyware system Pegasus on Mexican soil.

“We have already opened a case file, of course, and we will request from the Israeli authorities the information that was made public so we can formally incorporate it and move forward,” said FGR Director Alejandro Gertz.

During the administration of current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (2018–2024), the FGR received several complaints regarding the Pegasus software, but these were not substantiated with sufficient evidence.

“What we are doing now is formally asking the Israeli government, through the international legal assistance system, for authorization so that these claims can be framed within a legal context and not fall into the same void as unsupported complaints,” Gertz added.

According to The Marker, the most high-profile deal negotiated by Pegasus sales agents was the sale of the spyware, developed by Israeli cyber-intelligence firm NSO Group, to several Mexican institutions. These included the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), the now-defunct Attorney General’s Office (PGR), and the Center for Investigation and National Security (CISEN).

On Monday, Peña Nieto dismissed The Marker’s report as “false and malicious,” claiming he never held a position that made him responsible for authorizing such contracts. He also stated that Pegasus was not used for spying during his administration, but rather as a tool to “strengthen intelligence capabilities, create security conditions, and fight organized crime.”

In 2021, however, an international media investigation revealed that several countries used Pegasus to target 50,000 phones, including 15,000 in Mexico during Peña Nieto’s administration. The probe found that communications belonging to activists, journalists, then-opposition leader Lopez Obrador, and his aides were intercepted. The Israeli software was also used to monitor the families of the 43 students who disappeared in Ayotzinapa.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 32 points 2 weeks ago

Where Do Things Stand Now as Trump Prolongs Tariff Pause? - Telesur English

Article

Forbes described the move as the administration’s 27th policy ‘flip-flop’ since April 2, dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’ With the 90-day suspension of sweeping U.S. reciprocal tariffs scheduled to expire Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday to extend the pause till Aug. 1 while trade negotiations continue.

Forbes described the move as the administration’s “27th policy flip-flop” since April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” when the White House launched its aggressive tariff campaign. The delay adds yet another twist to Trump’s original “90 deals in 90 days” promise — so far yielding only two vague trade agreements with Britain and Vietnam.

So where do things stand now — and could more deals be coming down the pipeline between Washington and its major trading partners? Here’s the latest:

ASIAN PARTNERS

Alongside the tariff reprieve extension, Trump on Monday announced new 25 percent tariffs — effective Aug. 1 — on imports from 14 countries, including key allies Japan and South Korea. The announcement came with a warning: retaliatory measures will be met with a tit-for-tat response. Still, Washington left the door open for negotiation.

In the previous seven round of bilateral talks, Japan had floated a package of concessions such as boosting imports of U.S. agricultural goods and liquefied natural gas in exchange for relief on automobile, which accounts for around 30 percent of Japan’s exports to the United States. But Washington showed little flexibility.

Trump described Japan as “very tough” and “very spoiled” last week, and threatened to raise tariffs to 30-35 percent unless Japan opens its market to U.S. rice and other products. Japan is reportedly pushing for an eighth round of talks, but political constraints ahead of its general election and a sluggish economy limit its room to make major compromises.

South Korea has adopted a more multifaceted strategy. In addition to requesting a 90-day extension previously, Seoul had dispatched its top trade and security officials to Washington to engage in tariff discussions with wider cooperation, including exchange rate and defense issues.

South Korea’s Trade Ministry said Tuesday it will accelerate talks with Washington to reach a “mutually beneficial” agreement before the new deadline. President Lee Jae Myung admitted, “It’s still not clear to each side what the other wants.”

EUROPEAN ALLIES

Despite Washington’s last-minute decision to extend the pause, the EU is still aiming to strike with the United States a deal by midweek.

“We’re working towards July 9 as the point where we want to have an agreement in principle at a minimum with the U.S.,” said Olof Gill, the Commission’s trade spokesperson, on Monday.

Over the past months, Washington and Brussels have remained divided over tariffs on cars and steel, agricultural market access and digital regulation. Brussels’ firm stance on protecting its food standards and tech sovereignty has irritated Trump, who called the EU “very nasty” and threatened to raise tariffs on European exports to as high as 50 percent.

As the largest trading partner of the United States, the bloc already faces a 10 percent baseline tariff, with autos at 25 percent and steel and aluminum at 50 percent. Should no agreement be reached by Aug. 1, EU exports may face a further tariff hike, as Trump has warned.

The EU executive said that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a “good exchange” on trade with Trump on Sunday. But she also said: “What we are aiming at is an agreement in principle, because with such a volume, in 90 days, an agreement in detail is impossible … That is also what the UK did.”

Meanwhile, EU countries remain split on strategy. Countries like Italy and Germany support a quick deal and are willing to make significant concessions in exchange for lower duties on strategic sectors, while France and Spain have so far taken a more confrontational approach, urging the Commission to adopt a tougher stance.

NEIGHBORS

The United States’ neighboring countries appear to be faring better, thanks to tariff exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which covers goods primarily produced in North America. But the pain is still real.

To continue trade talks with Trump, Canada recently scrapped a proposed 3 percent digital services tax targeting U.S. tech giants, a leavy Trump had slammed as “a blatant attack,” after Trump called Canada “very nasty” and threatened to suspend trade talks if Canada imposes the tax. Referring to the repeal, the White House said last week that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada “caved” to Trump and the U.S.

According to Canada’s Department of Finance, Trump and Carney are now aiming to finalize a trade deal by July 21. U.S. tariffs on Canadian metals — a 50 percent levy on aluminum and 25 percent on steel — as well as Canada’s dairy supply management system could still return to the table.

Mexico has weathered the storm more effectively. Roughly half of its exports to its northern neighbor already meet USMCA rules of origin, and that share is expected to rise to 85-90 percent as companies adapt. That is much higher than Canada’s 38 percent in 2024.

Mexico is also in talks with Washington over a quota system to allow a set volume of steel exports to enter at lower tariffs. Additionally, Mexico is pushing for an early review of the USMCA, potentially by September, to secure longer-term trade certainty. However, the quota proposal has yet to materialize, and the early review could become a bargaining chip for Washington in further negotiations.

While negotiations are clearly active, it remains far too early to predict any concrete deals. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated in February that tariffs would reduce U.S. GDP growth by around 0.25 percentage points.

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