In a just world, OpenAI would be investigated for market denial...
Game developers should focus on making good fun games without pushing the envelope on graphics, or maybe work more on optimizing things.
Microsoft should focus on not making windows a bloated piece of shit that consumes so much memory.
eli5 why doesn't someone produce ram and refuse to sell to AI companies and make a bloody fortune?
Because the AI companies will just offer to buy at a higher price.
If you refuse to sell to AI companies you will make a small fortune yes. If you sell to the highest bidder you’ll make a larger fortune.
AI investment isn't rational like consumer spending. Consumers will only spend what is reasonable for their needs.
The AI bubble allows companies to purchase inventory at higher prices than consumers will ever pay then leave it on a shelf unused. The suppliers are making record profits supplying them. Unless China increases supply beyond the current memory cartel all we can do is wait for the inevitable market collapse.
Honestly the funniest thing would be Chinese RAM being cheaper even with tariffs and then eating Micron’s lunch
Samsung
SK Hynix
Micron
That's why.
Developing DRAM manufacturing capability is insanely difficult and hugely expensive. Almost all the worlds DRAM comes from one of these three names and they're already making their fortune selling to AI companies. They don't care about how many penny's people like you or me can scrape together.
If there was really any demand more DRAM would be being produced.
The reality is most datacentre companies have warehouses full of DRAM and GPUs waiting for datacentres to be built. By the time they will be built, the GPUs they have stashed will be obsolete.
PC sales - and PCs use a lot more DRAM than phones - are falling off a cliff.
So there is no real future demand, that's why no ones building chip fabs.
To spell this out clearly, the reason RAM has quadrupled in price is that a huge quantity of RAM that hasn't been produced yet has been bought with money that doesn't exist to populate GPUs that also haven't been produced to go in datacenters that haven't been built powered by infrastructure that may never exist to meet a demand that doesn't exist at all to make profit margins that mathematically can't exist while economists talk about this thing they call the "rational markets hypothesis".
This meme is pretty new, like from the future, but it checks out.
Okay I'm old is this a actually newer meme or was it a joke to post the reply?
It does sound familiar (like close to a movie line) but also sounds accurate. If the bubble pops so much memory available cheaper.
Mean I'm only 1 year into my PC build but I tend to do them every 4 years or so......crap that's only 5 years from now I thought it was longer, but still lot closer than I thought from first read. Least at this age time goes by quickly, for better or worse heh.
It's not an original comment.
How dare you?!
I thought everyone had heard this meme by now.
I edited my post to add the source.
Sorry I didn't mean anything by that. I don't care if you post a source or not. I was just answering their question.
Penis! I picked a fine time to finally want to upgrade my Win 7 laptop from 2011.
When the bubble pops most of that gear will be useless for consumer use.
I'm betting on a $700/$800 Steam Deck 2 when that launches and that being a solid deal. PS6 and it's rumored 36GB of memory, don't hold your breath for a release
This cyber enron circlejerk wont last that long
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
this is not "the market" that phrase is referring to
What market is it?
The phrase you mentioned refers to the stock market where companies like Tesla, for example, has stocks at huge prices when every single measure of their actual capacity, sales, innovation, demand, etc are tanking
Yes and the prices in the latter are influenced by the further.
well, that is what the phrase contradicts... if things were rational, yes the retail market would directly and proportionally affect the financial markets... but in reality, the financial markets are more speculation than reality so you could be promising to sell polished turds with AI (which makes no sense, nobody wants and you won't sell a single unit) yet your company's stock is evaluated in the billions
The solution is surprisingly simple:
"Sorry, I can't use your online services. My electronics died. Oh well." 🤷♂️
"No worries! We just launched Chat-Phone: a cellphone totally connected to ChatGPT. It has almost no capability by itself: poor CPU, min RAM, min/no storage, etc. But it is always connected to ChatGPT!
BTW: because of RAM shortage, we are the only smartphone maker in the world now!"
The phone is 50$, but you need the premium subscription for it to work…
Or we hunt them down
The fashionable new sport
So be it, then... We ride at dawn.
A 5 year DRAM shortage is pretty hard to imagine. I have to suspect that's a projection that assumes no AI bubble popping (which given how insanely over-leveraged basically every company involved in the bubble is, its inevitable. They're literally spending more building these datacenters than they can ever dream of recouping once built!) The last DRAM shortage (around 2017-2019 by memory) was only really bad for about a year or so, getting gradually better until it became an absolute glut of DRAM supply that lasted until...well about 3 months ago. $60 per terabyte of SSD storage was glorious, and hopefully I can afford to benefit from the next DRAM glut in 2-5 years
Saw this in the news. They're trying really hard to stack the federal reserve board and send interest rates back down to financial crisis/pandemic levels. AI bubble can have some leg room if interest rates tank
The AI bubble will pop long before then, and everyone will have more RAM and GPUs than they know what to do with.
looks at housing bubble "............. god i hope you're right"
As much as private equity wants to think it is, housing is not a commodity like DRAM is.
Housing always has a base value in that people always need places to live, so it's price is sticky. The need for DRAM could disappear overnight if it so happened that way.
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