China should accept Taiwans sovereignty as a separate Chinese country, and stop being such a little bitch. The end.

China simply waits and maintains its current policy until pro-unification sentiment in Taiwan grows large enough. The balance of power in the Pacific is shifting away from the US and before this century is out they will no longer be able to offer security guarantees.

Someone who threatens war to acquire land is not the good guy. Fuck them.

Yes I realize this also references you know who as well.

A peaceful and realistic solution? Taiwan develops a strategic nuclear deterrent. They're already a near-nuclear country and an industrial and technological powerhouse. A nuclear bomb is fully within their capability, and they already have abundant supplies of all the precursor materials in their possession. The most realistic solution to the Taiwan crisis is that Taiwan obtains nuclear weapons, and China is never able to threaten them with invasion again.

I mean wasn't it largely peaceful in the past? From China's perspective they only need to act if Taiwan or other countries make public statements challenging their legal claim to the island, it is better for China to wait as the power dynamics are shifting in their favor. It is only the west that wants to force this issue to come to head now, while they still have a comparative advantage - but even now if China wants Taiwan there is little we can do keep that from happening (though the humanitarian cost would be staggering and likely hurt their standing internationally).

Edit: I also don't see why mainland would suddenly pivot on the issue, there's seems very little reason to expect them to change course.

I'm garbage in history.

Can't we just treat it as relationships. I mean the reunification should only be done if both sides mutually agree. Forcing by any means is not good

A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan remains as a separate country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.

Theres already free movement from Taiwan to Mainland China IIRC.

The PRC's current take is "Taiwan is an autonomous part of China", the only sticking issue would probably be Taiwan having its own foreign policy as they aren't going to accept having a US military base right off their coast.

Genuinely the best "solution" is reunification at an indeterminate point in the future (maybe next century, maybe the one after that, etc), avoiding anything that could disrupt the status quo.

反攻大陆 (Counterattack the mainland) 😏

/just kidding

I think the only peaceful unification would be if CCP falls and mainland China becomes an actual democracy with free and fair elections, then mainland, HK, Taiwan can form a union, where Taiwan and HK remains autonomous regions for domestic politics (and this automony would be backed by a constitution) and have a common front for defence.

I mean another option would be complete sovereignty but a European Union type of thing where they do cooperate and sort of is like a country, but maintain the option to leave.

But regardless, I think it all comes down to what HKers and Taiwanese want, you need a referrendum for these types of things. I'd say to have legitimacy: Two consecutive referrendums in two separate regularly scheduled election with majority approval before any plan is enacted, to attempt to prevent a Brexit shenanigan.

I'm Chinese American so while I do support democracy, I am kinda leaning towards reunification assuming that there is actually democracy, but again it all comes down to what the people think, the will of the people is more important than my opinions.

Freedom for Taiwan and Hong Kong.

I don't think it matters what I think. Like everyone else chiming in on this thread, I have zero expertise on the subject - so whatever I say is just my personal preferred outcome, not a realistic one.

The peaceful solution is the decline of the West. Politics is rational. The CPC has no need to invade provided that foreign militaries do not build up threats on the province. As the West declines, trade with them becomes less attractive to Taiwan and trade with the mainland becomes more attractive. As the mainland develops, Taiwan will have the same calculus to do as Europe is doing now - align with the US or align with China.

It's really just a matter of time before Taiwan fully embraces 1 country 2 systems. Materially, the only component they don't currently embrace is the national defense component. They don't purport to be a country independent of China, and the legal reality is that they are literally part of China. So they essentially are 1 country 2 systems with th exception of national defense being provided for by the US instead the CPC.

Peaceful reunification will happen when the US withdraws. Violence will happen if the US escalates. That's the entirety of the spread of possibilities. The choice of peace lies entirely in the hands of the US.

While I don't claim to be an expert on the subject, the only peaceful outcome I can see is actually just a continuation of the status quo, where mainland China uses "reunification" messaging as little more than a show of strength and patriotic political rhetoric, and where the Western world continues to treat Taiwan's independence with "strategic ambiguity" while hinting to China that any attempt to take Taiwan will be met with a large scale Western response from the US and allies.

I do think that the West wants Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine to be a sign of what China should expect if they were to attempt to annex Taiwan. It won't be easy, it'll throw trade and supply chains into absolute chaos, and it'll be met with harsh economic sanctions and large weapons deals at the very least. The West wants China to feel that there is very little upside to attacking Taiwan, and that it's much more reasonable to maintain the status quo (though arguably, tariffs and trade wars needlessly remove some of the US's economic leverage over China).

Rhetoric aside, how much chaos and bloodshed is China really willing to tolerate just for the pyrric victory of finishing what Mao started almost a century ago?

I think the main hope for peace is that Xi and the ruling members of the CCP feel that it's in their personal best interest to talk a big game while doing the bare minimum to disrupt the systems that they currently benefit from.

There is more functional democracy in China with its one-party socialist state than there is in the US's two-party capitalist democracy.

The idea that the number of parties impacts the people's will and ability to enact change is complete fantasy celebrated by those who mindlessly fetishize democracy.

Forty-Six

When the Tao is present in the universe, The horses haul manure.
When the Tao is absent from the universe,
War horses are bred outside the city.

There is no greater sin than desire,
No greater curse than discontent,
No greater misfortune than wanting something for oneself.
Therefore he who knows that enough is enough will always have enough.

Sixty-One
[...]
Therefore if a great country gives way to a smaller country,
It will conquer the smaller country.
And if a small country submits to a great country,
It can conquer the great country.
Therefore those who would conquer must yield,
And those who conquer do so because they yield.

A great nation needs more people,
A small country needs to serve.
Each gets what it wants.
It is fitting for a great nation to yield.

Thirty
[...]
Force is followed by loss of strength.
This is not the way of Tao.
That which goes against the Tao comes to an early end.

from the Tao The Ching (by Lao Tsu), as translated by Gia-Fu Feng and Jane English

Book 14 #3

The Master said: 'When the way prevails in the state, be enterprising in speech and enterprising in action; but when the Way does not prevail in the state, be enterprising in action but prudent in speech.'

from The Analects (of Confucius), as translated by Raymond Dawson

Just maintain the status quo indefinitely. That's what most people in Taiwan want, and the status quo has maintained peace for what, 70 years? It could last another 70 years if we let it.

China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs

Is it? China has maintained it's formal claim of Taiwan for decades but hasn't actually moved on it, even when it's foreign policy was much more extreme and interventionist. I don't see a reason to think they intend to deviate from this policy.

Sure, they do saber-rattling. But this is generally in response to the US increasingly deviating from the policy of strategic ambiguity in recent years (which the news doesn't generally report on as such). China right now is "winning the peace," they are growing in power every year (economically, diplomatically, etc) while the US burns itself out getting involved in every military conflict it can find. They have no reason to jeopardize that by forcing the issue, though how they would respond to deviations from the status quo (like formal recognition) is hard to predict. Trying to call bluffs is often how wars happen.

Is there a reason why Taiwan needs formal recognition? Is there suddenly something wrong with the compromise that has kept the peace for so long? They are functionally independent already. It seems like it's just a matter of pride, just words on a page. Materially, it would make no difference in their lives. Is that worth potentially starting WWIII over?

What I find terrifying is that most USians don't seem to know or care about strategic ambiguity. They are so easily worked up into a war frenzy, and keep trying to act like some kind of superhero who never has to make compromises or accept imperfect solutions, who instantly understands any situation at first glance. Continuing to apply this mentality as the US declines is going to lead to more and more conflicts with reality, and I'm frankly terrified at what my countrymen might decide to do when faced with the collapse of their superhero fantasies.