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submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by CurlyWurlies4All@slrpnk.net to c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world

An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.

....Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.

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[-] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 27 points 1 month ago

What's crazy is people bet on it without insider info, knowing that people with it can.

Some comedian made a joke about it because he read off a bunch of random words that had bets on if they were said. They all paid out because he said them

The point is for any given bet a bunch of people can either make it happen or know the result before the market adjusts to the public knowing.

It's like how early scam emails used bad grammer so only dumb people responded, if you bet on poly market, you're already a lick.

Ironically enough this is also how our entire economy is run, just not as obviously...

[-] justsomeguy@lemmy.world 1 points 1 month ago

Gambling ads go brrrrrr.

A good third of the population simply don't have the cognitive capabilities to understand these things and if they're not protected by regulation they'll always fall for some form of scam.

[-] WesternInfidels@feddit.online 11 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

How did the general public come to adopt the "prediction market" euphemism? It's crypto gambling, right? Everyone knows that's true, everyone understands that terminology. Aren't we doing the casino's work for them when we adopt their highfalutin' marketing-speak? Making crypto gambling sound like a game for rich, educated people, rather than a grubby online casino that caters to insider cheating and tax evasion?

[-] HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 month ago

I think that's sort of the point?

That by watching the money, you get the most current and accurate picture of the odds of something happening?

It's almost irrelevant that there is insider trading. The more money involved, the more reflective of reality the odds are. Money's gonna money, legal or otherwise.

[-] hperrin@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 month ago

Is it crypto gambling? I thought it was just regular gambling.

[-] TheReturnOfPEB@reddthat.com 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Who are the current high odds chances for being the host of Running Man 2026 ?

[-] SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The future fucking sucks. Literally everything is gambling now, and the people with inside information are gambling the most.

...and you know what, yes, Valve deserves some of the blame for creating lootboxes and enabling the lootbox gambling scene via their hands-off "we can't control what other people do" approach.

this post was submitted on 02 Mar 2026
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