Critical support for the Tories in their efforts to destroy UK defense capabilities, not least with the Royal Marines

With the creation of BRICS 2.0, what's in store? The pull-out of Argentina makes it increasingly clear that BRICS was focused on the Middle East/North Africa this year, encompassing globally important shipping lanes and a vast amount of oil production. It seems as though BRICS is trying to undermine the foundation of the petrodollar.

Going through some eastern EU mainstream news from December and it's getting a bit long already so I'll post what I have so far and probably do a part two later this week

France24 - Tusk back as Polish PM, vows Ukraine support 13/12/2023

Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on Wednesday stressed that supporting Ukraine would be a "priority" for the new administration.

Earlier this week, Tusk slammed Western leaders for voicing "fatigue" with the situation in Ukraine, as aid packages for the war-torn country were being held up in the United States and the EU.

BBC - US anti-missile base in Poland to start operations - Polish PM 11/12/2023

The Redzikowo base was intended to begin operating in 2018 but its opening has been repeatedly delayed.

The Redzikowo base is located around 150km (93 miles) from Kaliningrad

The bases in Romania and Poland are part of a missile defence system which also comprises a radar facility in Turkey, a command centre in Germany and US Navy ships.

The alliance says the system will protect members against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The system does not work against cruise missiles, however.

The Aegis system is also deployed on American, Japanese and South Korean ships in east Asia.

Euronews - EU should prepare for war by end of decade, German Defence Minister warns 18/12/2023

As the U.S. shifts its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, Pistorius highlighted the need for Europe to enhance its security and defence capabilities independently.

In a bid to strengthen European defence collaboration, Pistorius advocated for adding a military component to the Weimar Triangle, an informal forum comprising Germany, Poland, and France.

He expressed keen interest in this collaboration and extended an invitation to the newly-appointed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, saying, "We are very interested in [adding a military component to the Weimar Triangle]."

Yahoo Finance - Ukraine Issues Plea Over Budget as Funds Dwindle in New Year 28/12/2023

Ukraine’s budget may be hit by shortfalls as early as the first two months of next year, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said earlier this month.

Ukraine’s options for generating funds on its own — including raising tax revenue, devaluing the hryvnia or tapping the central bank — are limited and viewed as risky by the Finance Ministry. But the premier said they’ll be deployed as a stopgap until international funds arrive.

Reuters - Ukraine probes listening device found in office used by top general 17/12/2023

Ukraine has launched a criminal probe after a listening device was found in an office that was set to be used by armed forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, officials said.

The security service added that the device - initially characterized as a bug by local media - was considered under preliminary information to be "in a non-operational state", and no means of information storage or remote transmission of audio recordings were found.

BBC - Ukraine military seeks extra 500,000 soldiers - President Zelensky 19/12/2023

At a news conference in Kyiv, he said his commanders were seeking "450,000-500,000 individuals", admitting this was a "sensitive" and costly issue.

dagens.com - From gender changes to fake disabilities: More than 6,000 Ukrainian men are leaving Ukraine daily

Matviychuk recounted an incident where a man, initially named Anton, changed his legal identity to Tonya, not through an actual gender transition, but solely on paper.

Additionally, there has been an uptick in the number of men marrying mothers with multiple children, a strategy used to gain exemption from border restrictions. Moreover, men with disabilities or those accompanying them have been leaving the country in large numbers.

AP - Bulgaria dismantles a Soviet army monument that has dominated the Sofia skyline since 1954 13/12/2023

The monument was erected in 1954 to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Soviet forces entering Bulgaria, which had been allied with Nazi Germany in World War II.

On Wednesday, following years of heated debate, workers began to dismantle the 45-meter-high (147-foot) installation, removing the figures at the top, which showed a Soviet soldier holding an automatic rifle, a woman with her child, and a worker.

BBC - Paris 2024 Olympics: IOC boss defends move to allow Russians and Belarusians to compete as neutrals 14/12/2023

This was, he said, "one war among 28 wars and conflicts going on this world and all the other athletes are competing peacefully with each other".

Ukraine itself suggested it might boycott the games

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/07/1223065019/20-mile-backup-as-polish-truckers-blockade-border-in-standoff-with-ukrainian-dri

In a reprisal to the EU's support to Ukraine in the form of deregulation of trade and logistics of Ukrainian cargo truck drivers, poland's truckers come together to protect their material livelihood by actively sabotaging the Ukrainian war effort through their own legally permitted protectionist blockades at Ukrainian Polish border checkpoints to limit the number of cheaper labor and commodities in the form of Ukrainian migrant workers and goods in order to staunch the hemorrhaging economic free fall they would cause with their presence.

I for one say critical support to the Poles in their continual feud with the ukro-nazis.

ISISrael

Haitian revolution 2 was not something i was looking at but huh

Settler-on-settler violence: https://nitter.net/AryJeay/status/1743784441154064697

I've been neglecting Bhadrakumar lately (through no fault of his own, I've just been busy) and he's put out some interesting pieces in the meantime.

In the first, he describes how India has turned around on the Israel-Palestine conflict:

India’s voting pattern in the United Nations with regard to the Israel-Palestine conflict is lately marked by a calibrated distancing from Israel. Only a few weeks ago, Israel’s ambassador in Delhi bullishly described the Indian stance as one of “100% support” to his country. But that is no more the case today.

Delhi has rejected the repeated Israeli entreaties to declare Hamas as a terrorist organisation, marking its independent opinion regarding the ecosystem of resistance movements. Indeed, this is a highly significant distinction that Delhi is making vis-a-vis the Israeli and Western narrative about Hamas. although India has not hesitated to condemn the violence directed against Israel on October 7, it refused to name Hamas.

...from a geopolitical perspective, Delhi has marked its distance from the US-Israeli campaign branding Iran as the instigator of extremist groups acting against Israel. Interestingly, on December 19, India was one of only thirty states — along with Russia and China — who voted against a UN resolution on “the human rights situation in Iran.”

The unprecedented unity among the Arab countries, the close coordination between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the huge groundswell of opinion in the Arab world against Israeli atrocities against the Palestinian populations in Gaza and West Bank — all this has created a new momentum in Middle East politics that has pitchforked the Palestine problem to the centre stage, which is something India cannot afford to ignore. ... The acolytes of Israel in the Indian strategic community feel utterly disillusioned. Simply put, an influential constituency in India and the interest groups that it spawned are no longer calling the shots in Delhi. This is going to be consequential.

In the second, he describes how the US war on Ansarallah is illusory, and they are more isolated and vulnerable than they would like to admit:

From a geopolitical perspective, the US has strong reasons to dominate the Red Sea where China has a naval base in Djibouti and Washington has been fuelling the civil war in Sudan to keep the country on the boil and block Russia’s plans to set up a submarine base.

Another littoral state Eritrea occupies a key strategic position on the eastern side of the Red Sea, which has strong economic, diplomatic and military ties with China and Russia. Indeed, the US efforts failed miserably to overthrow the democratically elected Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, the largest country in the Horn of Africa, who is aligned to Russia. Suffice to say, the US has not a single friend or ally left today in the entire eastern part of the Red Sea.

The big question is whether the US ploy to drag QUAD — and along with that, India — into the Red Sea will succeed. This is in some ways a replay of history when resisting pressure from the George W. Bush administration, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government refused to join the US-led coalition of the willing to invade Iraq in 2003. In retrospect, that proved to be a wise decision. Then, as now, there are influential interest groups in Delhi who would probably argue for Indian participation in the US-led ‘war on terror’ against the Houthis.

...Stakes are indeed high for Israel to give ballast to the US-led coalition in the Red Sea. The US and Israel are desperate to rope in India in their upcoming ill-fated ‘war on terror’ against Yemen, a civilisational state, so as to give their risky enterprise a regional habitation and name.

And in the third, he talks about Putin's speech on December 19th:

Putin’s speech exuded a buoyant mood. The Russian economy has not only regained its pre-2022 momentum but is accelerating toward a 3.5% growth rate by the yearend, marked by rising incomes and purchasing power for millions of its citizens and an increase in living standards. Unemployment is at an all-time low and Russia has beaten back the Western sanctions and the attempts to isolate it in the international arena.

... On the military side, clearly, Russia will press forward the attritional war to its logical end of pushing the Ukrainian military into a strategic dead-end, which would mean seeking tactical improvements along the frontline, undermining Ukraine’s economic potential, inflicting military losses, and boosting Russia’s own defence industry on a scale that tips the balance of forces to weigh against any military adventures by the NATO.

In the final analysis, Putin asserted, Russia is determined to reclaim the “vast historical territories, Russian territories, along with the population” that the Bolsheviks transferred to Ukraine during the Soviet era. However, he drew an important distinction as regards the “western lands” of Ukraine (west of Dnieper) that are a legacy of World War II over which there could be territorial claims from Poland, Hungary and Romania, which at least in the case of Poland is also linked to the transfer of “eastern German lands, the Danzig Corridor, and Danzig itself” following the defeat of the Third Reich.

Putin took note that “people who live there (western Ukraine) – many of them, at least, I know this for sure, 100 percent – they want to return to their historical homeland. The countries that lost these territories, primarily Poland, dream of having them back.” That said, interestingly, Putin simply washed his hands off any territorial disputes that may arise between Ukraine and its eastern neighbours(all of whom are NATO countries.) Looking ahead, this is going to be a can of worms for the US. Recently, Russia’s intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin used a powerful metaphor, warning that the US may face a “second Vietnam” in Ukraine that will come to haunt it for a long time.

...a decisive shift in the balance of forces against Ukraine is entirely conceivable by the end of next year, leading to an end of the conflict on Russia’s terms.

More news at the Burkina Faso-Mali border: https://nitter.net/marcus_herve/status/1743033741755158737

On January 4th, 2024, a column of terrorists coming from the Malian border swept into the Nassoumbou area, with the intention of a large-scale attack. Thanks to intel, they were discovered in time, just outside the town. However, sensing danger, the criminals turned back.

There's drone footage of a couple of dudes getting hit by something, probably the drone.

I love listening to Nasrallah

I was browsing movie torrents, and I noticed two rather highly seeded Israeli B-rolls (Unit 262 and The Engineer)

They have imdb scores of 1.7 and 4.0, which should say something about their quality. I wonder if people are thinking "Israel is in the news rn, let's check out their movies!" or if it's part of the propaganda push.

The weekly update is here on the website.

Also check out the new community that I moderate, c/self_improvement!

--

The Country of the Week is Haiti!

As mentioned in the preamble, feel free to post or recommend any material related to Haiti, whether from a thousand years ago or yesterday. You can post it anywhere in the thread, but you can also reply to this comment if you wish.

If you're feeling particularly ambitious and want homework, you could take on any or all of these questions (no reward, but I'll be very proud of you):

• Who are the main political actors? Are they compradors, nationalists, international socialists, something else?
• What are the most salient domestic political issues; those issues that repeatedly shape elections over the last 10, 20 years. Every country has its quirks that complicate analysis - for example, Brexit in the UK.
• What is the country's history? You don't have to go back a thousand years if that's not relevant, and I'm counting "history" as basically anything that has happened over a year ago.
• What factions exist, historically and currently? If there is an electoral system, what are the major parties and their demographic bases? Are there any minor parties with large amounts of influence? Independence movements? Religious groups?
• How socially progressive or conservative are they? Is there equality for different ethnic groups, or are some persecuted? Do they have LGBTQIA+ rights? Have they improved over time, or gotten worse?
• What role do foreign powers play in the country’s politics and economy? Is there a particular country nearby or far away that is nearly inseparable from them, for good or bad reasons? Is their trade dominated by exports/imports to one place? Are they exploited, exploiters, or something in between?
• If applicable, what is the influence of former colonial relationships on the modern economy and politics?
• Is the country generally stable? Do you think there will be a coup at some point in the future, and if so, what faction might replace them?

The previous country was Finland.

This is our Geopolitics Reading List so far! Please chime in with suggestions!

General Theory:

• Super Imperialism, by Michael Hudson.
• Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century: Globalization, Super-Exploitation, and Capitalism’s Final Crisis, by John Smith.
• Superexploitation and the Imperialist Drive of Capitalism: How Marini's 'Dialectics of Dependency' Goes beyond Marx's 'Capital', by Andy Higginbottom.
• Capital Volume 3 Lecture Series, 32 videos, 10-15 minutes each, by Andy Higginbottom.
• World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction, by Immanuel Wallerstein.
• Geopolitical Economy: After US Hegemony, Globalization and Empire, by Radhika Desai.
• Capitalism, Coronavirus and War: A Geopolitical Economy, by Radhika Desai.

Canada:

• Canada in the World: Settler Capitalism and the Colonial Imagination, by Tyler Shipley.

Chile:

• 1000 Days of Revolution: Chilean Communists on the Lessons of Popular Unity (I cannot personally find an online version).
• Santiago Boys Podcast, analyzing Allende's government and Cybersyn.

Lebanon:

• A History of Modern Lebanon, by Fawwaz Traboulsi.

United States:

• Drug Cartels Do Not Exist: Narcotrafficking in US and Mexican Culture, by Oswaldo Zavala.

Venezuela:

• Objective Conditions in Venezuela: Maduro’s Defensive Strategy and Contradictions Among the People, a longform article by Steve Ellner.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-block-uk-minehunter-ships-intended-ukraine-2024-01-02/

Turkey to block minehunter ships intended for Ukraine

erdogan-troll when

Your Tuesday Briefing

Estonia has become the first former Soviet republic to legalize gay marriage, due to an amendment to its Family Law which passed 55 to 34.

The United States and Europe are unable to compete with China in the solar panel industry according to a report from consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The cost of producing solar modules dropped by 42% in 2023 to $0.15 per watt; in Europe the cost is $0.30 and in the US, $0.40. China also has 80% of the world's solar panel manufacturing capacity.

Uganda is beginning construction on the $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline as the first shipment of pipes have arrived from China, as Uganda seeks to deliver its first oil to international markets by 2025 by shipping it to Tanzania's ports. Pressure from environmental campaigners under the StopEACOP slogan has since several US, European, and Japanese companies withdrawing from the project, leaving China to fill the gap. France's TotalEnergies has a 62% interest in the pipeline, and European politicians have warned against TotalEnergies from continuing to back the project.

Iran and Russia have officially abandoned the dollar for mutual settlements, finalizing an agreement to trade in the ruble and rial. New financial and banking institutions have been established to allow non-SWIFT messaging systems, and establishing bilateral brokerage relations in national currencies. This comes as Iran signs a free trade agreement with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, in which tariffs are being cut down for 87% of products.

Russian manufacturing is at its highest level of growth in seven years, as the PMI rose from 53.8 to 54.6 in December. Unemployment has also hit a record low of 2.9%. The service sector also expanded.

Ancap Update:

The Argentine Labor Court, this time responding to another request from the Argentine Workers' Central, has issued another injunction suspending the effects of the labor reform, which were included in the DNU signed by Javier Milei last year.

Daily combat footage

https://streamable.com/8ad8dq