The average user would not know about lemmy without a reddit post linking and explaining. It's what got me here.

Started here a week ago. There will probably be a spike in users. Hopefully as the weeks go on, more will come. People will try Reddits official app. I think the Fediverse will get more popular, and Reddit will get more unusable.

Maybe a bit but it won’t be a tsunami, most Redditors don’t care about the Reddit backend or mods or api changes. Don’t forget we’re just a vocal minority.

Yes

Doubtful, to be honest.

Most who have used 3rd Party apps have already migrated or found some other solution. Those who don't care are still using the official app, and, to be frank, despite what everyone says, the quality content hasn't decreased by that much.

It's still half Twitter and TikTok reposts, and one-fourth 'advice subs' (creative writing), like it's been for several years before this debacle.

Hell, maybe this is a good thing in some ways, where that kind of content can hopefully fall by the wayside over here, instead of choking communities out like it does in Reddit. (I have over 50 popular subreddits on Boost filtered out to avoid this stuff, and it's still not enough to get rid of all of it)

I would imagine most people planning to head here already have accounts, activity will no doubt go up though.

As the weeks go on though more will find this place and I'm sure there will be more surges to come.

No. There are good things to look at on Reddit, and effectively nothing around here. This place is incredibly barren and will continue to be unless creative people show up to populate it... which they won't when it's a nightmare just to get an upvote to stick,

I really enjoy the idea of open source, so earlier today I started thinking isn't that the direction the reddit community should take? Couple of minutes and a search later i found Lemmy and thought it was the coolest concept ever. I may not be most reddit users, but the actions reddit have taken certainly got me here. Lack of apps on ios may be problematic as i don't think most users will think of using web apps (or whatever they're called)

As much as I'm enjoying Lemmy, I don't see the vast majority of Reddit users making the switch to anything. Mastodon, Lemmy, and kbin are far too obscure, and most people use Reddit for pino and memes. People just aren't very technologically inclined and Reddit satisfies the dopamine fix for most regular visitors.

I would imagine that most of the influx already happened and most people who care should be here (in the threadiverse) already. That is unless:

1. unpurged accounts becoming [deleted] makes it more apparent those who left, and the scale/news of it
2. quality drops like a rock due to mods and users who have left (also because of those who stay behind)
3. the admins keep digging further
4. there is a sizable chunk of people who for whatever reason haven't paid attention to the situation for a month, or haven't decided on an instance

I would say something about continuing mod protests, but I think if they're not here already they are probably are just mad that it's happening and wouldn't switch.

In any case I cannot see any of these causing an influx on the 30th or even on any timescale shorter than a week.

I started earlier than the 30th as it's clear that Reddit went full twitter.

I imagine there will be a big uptick in the number of new users but it won't be a huge wave, not initially. Human nature being what it is, users will switch to the official app, mods will try and muddle through with a more limited toolbox and, slowly, the wheels will fall off as people find that the user experience has been degraded, leading to a fairly steady flow of people moving over (and a decent number moving on as Lemmy likely isn't ready for primetime just yet). I think what will be key is whether the most experienced moderators and most active posters make the jump - without them the site is a hollow shell as it is largely built on their disproportionate contribution. That might speed up Reddit's downfall.

The best thing we can do is make their landing as soft as possible.

• Make sure there are welcome posts in each instances main communities.
• Keep an eye on Reddit for people asking how to make the move.
• Keep an eye on the relevant communities here for anyone struggling.
• Get equivalents to the subs set up.
• List these on sub.rehab and similar directories.
• Don't panic! Perhaps this should have gone first.

I'm guessing a good chunk of people will be split between creating an account on Lemmy/kbin, raddle, squabbles and possibly tildes. One of the alternatives will most likely win out for users switching from Reddit, I hope it is Lemmy but who knows.