1000 comments and it's a boring ass slow news week

Russia’s war economy

Michael Roberts comes along in our time of need to discuss what's going on economically in Russia with a little more rigor than I can do, though he mostly examines what factors are affecting Russia from the outside rather than what's going on inside the government and central bank.

It's worth noting that while he is pro-Global South, he is very much not pro-Russia - at least, not to the same extent that Hudson and Desai and other similar economists are. Nevertheless, he comes to the same conclusion that I and others have:

But the impact of sanctions is slow burn. It may weaken Russian productivity and domestic production over the long term, but it is not going to stop the Russian war machine now and energy revenues to finance it. That could only happen if fast-growing Asia led by China and India refused to buy Russian oil and gas, but the opposite is the case – they are buying more at cheap prices.

Russia’s war machine will continue but as emigration of skilled workers and capital owned by richer Russians accelerates, it is weakening the currency and reducing available skilled labour in production.

Inflation had fallen in the last year due to the collapse in domestic demand and imported goods. But if the currency continues to dive, then it will start to rise, increasing the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates to support the currency and try to curb inflation. A stronger ruble and higher interest rates would mean lower foreign currency revenues and a weaker domestic economy. That will hit Russian households hard.

As it is, potential average growth is probably no more than 1.5% per year as Russian growth is restricted by an ageing and shrinking population, with low investment and productivity rates. The profitability of Russian productive capital even before the war was very low.

So Russia will not collapse this decade, at least as far as we can see. It'll be mediocre growth and the slow compounding of domestic crises that they'll have to watch out for, but this is no different from any other major economy.

Western regime media (BBC etc.) are claiming that the Ukrainians have finally broken through the first of three Russian defence lines in the south. Is there any confirmation of this from unbiased sources or is it more cope?

Edit: it was more cope.

Just like in 2021, it seems that the Correaistas (Left-Wing) will be the largest party in the Ecuadorian National Assembly.

Ecuador's own foreign ministry urges the country's electoral authority to rectify the problem which is impeding the ability of Ecuadorians to vote abroad. Polls have closed overseas with widespread reports that voters were denied their right to vote

Damn

China to scale up wind and solar recycling to tackle environmental impact of decommissioned hardware

China, the world’s largest renewable energy producer, will set up a recycling system for ageing solar panels and wind turbines in an effort to tackle millions of tonnes of equipment slated for retirement in the coming years, according to the state planner.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and five other state agencies on Thursday jointly released guidelines that seek to accelerate the recycling of old wind and solar equipment.

China’s new energy sector, which covers wind, solar, battery and other emerging energy technologies, will face a problem of “mass decommissioning of equipment” as industry upgrades accelerate, the state agencies said.

A set of technical standards and policies will be introduced for the wind and solar industries to recycle their decommissioned equipment and form dedicated industry clusters across the nation by 2030.

Wind and solar manufacturers should design equipment that is lightweight and easy to disassemble and recycle, according to the NDRC’s guidelines. Renewable energy generators will also be responsible for decommissioning end-of-life equipment and will not be allowed to discard or bury the waste in landfill sites, it added.

Genuinely really encouraging. We've gotta get better recycling industries if we're gonna reduce the amount we have to quarry out of the ground so it's nice to see the world's leading renewables manufacturer getting on that ASAP.

https://archive.is/PURLY

Nonarchived link

Some fresh slop for the "7 days to China collapse" watchers

China is too big for a Soviet Union-style collapse, but it’s on shaky ground. By Larry Elliott

Outside of being insulted on the Soviets behalf, the article boils down to say a collapse of China may actually be a bad thing for the economy.

Ecuadorian President is Denounced in Villavicencio Murder Case

The Fernando Villavicencio family also blames Interior Minister Juan Zapata, Police Commander Fausto Salinas, and the director of the security operation.

On Friday, the family of the late presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio announced that they will file a complaint against President Guillermo Lasso and other public officials for the assassination of the Ecuadorian politician on August 9.

At press conference, the family's lawyer, Marco Yulema, explained that the assassination of Villavicencio at the hands of hitmen occurred as a result of an "intentional omission" by the authorities.

The Lasso administration did not comply with its responsibility to ensure the life of a presidential candidate who had received threats against him and requested political protection.

"The Ecuadorian State did not fulfill its role as guarantor... They left him abandoned, they let him die," the lawyer said and recounted the breach of various security protocols that occurred at the time of Villavicencio's murder.

Among them, for example, was the total absence of protection on the left side of the vehicle in which the candidate was embarking. For this reason, the hitmen fired without any impediment and at a very short notice against Villavicencio.

The Villavicencio family also blames Interior Minister Juan Zapata, Police Commander Fausto Salinas, and the director of the security operation.

In another press conference, Zapata said that the Villavicencio family has the right to file a complaint. However, he did not refer directly to the failures in the protection protocols.

Instead, the Interior Minister said that the police authorities cannot pronounce themselves until the Internal Affairs Directorate does not conclude an investigation on this case.

We are ready to exchange Belgorod for NATO membership – Zelenskyy

In response to a question on the possibility of territorial concessions for the sake of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was ready to exchange it for the Russian city of Belgorod.

According to Zelenskyy, it is difficult to criticise the Ukrainian counteroffensive when the country’s forces do not have appropriate weapons. According to him, Ukraine will not risk the lives of thousands of defenders in order to advance up to 5-8 kilometres with no powerful weapons.

He noted that while Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive, the Russians really dug in, mining the territory and building up their defences, but they have been doing all this since 2014.