256

Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory (www.nature.com)

submitted 8 months ago by boem@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

44 comments fedilink hide all child comments

all 47 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[-] Raykin@lemmy.world 120 points 8 months ago

Weather you like it or not, we have a mountain of hard choices in front of us. And nobody seems willing to climate.

[-] WhatAmLemmy@lemmy.world 35 points 8 months ago

You son of a bitch

[-] anarchrist@lemmy.dbzer0.com 16 points 8 months ago

I'm in 👉

[-] youngGoku@lemmy.world 6 points 8 months ago

Rick & Morty reference

[-] Neato@ttrpg.network 5 points 8 months ago

[-] weirdbeardgame@lemmy.world 6 points 8 months ago

Seems like a pretty hot topic

[-] PatFussy@lemm.ee 48 points 8 months ago

It's probably the methane leaking from the poles that everyone has been saying will cause unexpected bullshit for decades

[-] modifier@lemmy.ca 69 points 8 months ago

Look we can't start blaming individual countries - even if Poland has unusually gassy citizens, I just don't think they are a large enough population to make that kind of difference.

[-] Plopp@lemmy.world 16 points 8 months ago

I don't know.. I had Polish pea soup once and I farted basically all night long. Imagine an entire nation doing that, every night. We might be on to something here.

[-] Zozano@lemy.lol 8 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Poland has unusually gassy citizens

Poor choice of words

[-] randomaside@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 8 months ago

I remember this article because I saw vlog brothers episode about it.

https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth

Tldr they changed the fuel for boats to be cleaner resulting in less cloud cover significantly allowing the oceans to heat up faster than ever before.

[-] barsoap@lemm.ee 45 points 8 months ago

Already taken into account, as well as other phenomena such as El Ninjo. Even if you add up the worst case scenarios for all known mechanisms the measured numbers are above that, there's a gap in the models and it's not in our favour.

[-] grue@lemmy.world 66 points 8 months ago

El Ninjo

[-] aniki@lemm.ee 13 points 8 months ago

That is amazing. I want to buy that cosplayer a cervesa y una tequila

[-] xpinchx@lemmy.world 3 points 8 months ago

Yo tambien por favor, ¿donde estas la cicharrones?

[-] aniki@lemm.ee 5 points 8 months ago

Esta ;)

[-] OozingPositron@feddit.cl 10 points 8 months ago

Here you go brother: ñ

[-] Bruncvik@lemmy.world 2 points 8 months ago

I watched a video on Youtube (so take it with a grain of salt) that claimed that the current climate models don't take into account the reflectivity of the clouds. When these are included, the models appear to be far more accurate. (I only have a passing interest in the topic, no expertise, so I likely misrepresented the conclusions. If you are interested more watch the video yourself.)

[-] PipedLinkBot@feddit.rocks 2 points 8 months ago

Here is an alternative Piped link(s):

video

Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.

I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.

[+] youngGoku@lemmy.world -34 points 8 months ago

Maybe the molten core is boiling and slowly rising to the surface, resulting in increase of temperature.

[-] Neato@ttrpg.network 22 points 8 months ago

It's not because of the below, but that's a neat B-movie plot along the same lines as The Core.

[-] ShadowRam@fedia.io 10 points 8 months ago

The earth generally has an overall fixed rate at which it can radiate heat into space.

We dig up millions of years of stored solar energy and release it as heat.

I really don't understand why people are surprised. Sure, it can get really complicated as you factor in varying cloud cover, solar output, greenhouse effect.

But long-term trend, it shouldn't surprise anyone that every joule of energy we pull out of stored carbon, or even mass->energy via nuclear. We are generating more heat now than the earth is used to radiating out.

So obviously the average temperature is going to increase.

Even if we find ways to store the energy back, it takes energy to do so, and therefore more waste heat in the end.

If we want to cool the planet, we have to increase the rate that we radiate heat out into space.

[-] frezik@midwest.social 16 points 8 months ago

Waste heat will eventually be a problem, but we're far from the limit yet:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-022-01652-6.epdf?sharing_token=yNwL92oPzcpklZSqVsr-ndRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N0u2htmeT1Hou6SrdtT_vjhsjDi8mPyrY6gILuO1cIPYM5r9vTrCV6dFSGWkHiq63t24rvELuWNN1w82farMIezAYiWj7ialZ8KkzI_SEgHP98WBPRE6PFu8lx9H4EP5A%3D

At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription. Clearly, extrapolating our recent — seemingly modest — 2.3% annual energy growth very far into the future quickly becomes ridiculous, and cannot happen.

This is not intended to suggest that waste heat is a bigger problem than, say, climate change from carbon dioxide emissions.

So that's something we're going to need to think about after getting greenhouse gas emissions under control.

[-] porous_grey_matter@lemmy.ml 10 points 8 months ago

This is not remotely why the planet is warming up lmao

[-] aniki@lemm.ee 4 points 8 months ago

If we want to cool the planet, we have to increase the rate that we radiate heat out into space.

Or generate less heat. Al La use less energy. As in downsize our oversized lifestyles. As in spend less money. As in go counter to capitalism.

[+] FMT99@lemmy.world -72 points 8 months ago

When a year or month is not as warm we always say "you can't judge on a single outlier, the average is upwards" Maybe 2023 will not turn out to be an outlier and it needs to be examined of course (and I know people are) but there's also no need to immediately go to "we're in uncharted waters." Not to mention weaselly headlines like "we could be.." immediately make me lose all confidence in the author.

Media sensationalism is part of the problem even when we think they're agreeing with us.

[-] WaxedWookie@lemmy.world 51 points 8 months ago

It's the scientific community giving an exasperated "we're fucked", my guy.

It's all outliers and constant "once a century" weather events these days.

[-] bmsok@lemmy.world 25 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Yup. These are expert scientists with their hands up in the air explaining how this shit is exponentially hitting the fan.

This is an inflection point. The fire alarms are blaring.

They should get every penny of funding available to deal with this.

[-] grue@lemmy.world 21 points 8 months ago

It's not just about funding the scientists; it's about defunding the pollution (e.g. quit massively subsidizing roads and parking).

[-] Neato@ttrpg.network 27 points 8 months ago

Yeah. It's only been...almost every month for the past several years has been the hottest on record ever. Definitely just a fluke,

this post was submitted on 20 Mar 2024

256 points (97.8% liked)

World News

39026 readers

1220 users here now

A community for discussing events around the World

Rules:

Rule 1: posts have the following requirements:
- Post news articles only
- Video links are NOT articles and will be removed.
- Title must match the article headline
- Not United States Internal News
- Recent (Past 30 Days)
- Screenshots/links to other social media sites (Twitter/X/Facebook/Youtube/reddit, etc.) are explicitly forbidden, as are link shorteners.
Rule 2: Do not copy the entire article into your post. The key points in 1-2 paragraphs is allowed (even encouraged!), but large segments of articles posted in the body will result in the post being removed. If you have to stop and think "Is this fair use?", it probably isn't. Archive links, especially the ones created on link submission, are absolutely allowed but those that avoid paywalls are not.
Rule 3: Opinions articles, or Articles based on misinformation/propaganda may be removed. Sources that have a Low or Very Low factual reporting rating or MBFC Credibility Rating may be removed.
Rule 4: Posts or comments that are homophobic, transphobic, racist, sexist, anti-religious, or ableist will be removed. “Ironic” prejudice is just prejudiced.
Posts and comments must abide by the lemmy.world terms of service UPDATED AS OF 10/19
Rule 5: Keep it civil. It's OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It's NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.

Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.

Rule 6: Memes, spam, other low effort posting, reposts, misinformation, advocating violence, off-topic, trolling, offensive, regarding the moderators or meta in content may be removed at any time.
Rule 7: We didn't USED to need a rule about how many posts one could make in a day, then someone posted NINETEEN articles in a single day. Not comments, FULL ARTICLES. If you're posting more than say, 10 or so, consider going outside and touching grass. We reserve the right to limit over-posting so a single user does not dominate the front page.

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

Lemmy World Partners

News !news@lemmy.world

Politics !politics@lemmy.world

World Politics !globalpolitics@lemmy.world

Recommendations

How to spot Misinformation and Propaganda

For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/

Consider including the article’s mediabiasfactcheck.com/ link

founded 1 year ago

MODERATORS

quinten@lemmy.world

NewsAutoMod@lemmy.world

jordanlund@lemmy.world

Tenthrow@lemmy.world

little_cow@lemmy.world

lemmyAtom@lemmy.world

FlyingSquid@lemmy.world