Turns out we should have been helping Ukraine against Putin's fascistic colonialism instead of supporting an entirely separate set of fascists commit genocide in Palestine.
The issue is partially that we have no real voice in American politics. Republicans are highly responsive to the whims of their voters, Democrats work hard to ignore when their voters have demands. Republicans have not choice to do what they're voters want. Democrats have carte blanc because they know "Blue no Matter Who" and "Any Blue Will Do". It's incredibly important to recognize this divide in electoralism. The policies of the Republican party are the will of the Republican voter. Republicans are scared shitless of their voters because it is a non stop series of purity tests effectively contrived through the alt right media. If you step out of line as a Republican, consider your career vanished
I feel like you have it completely backwards.
Democrats have always been "the big tent" party, which is part of their weakness, as their voters have a wide range of "demands" that are often, if not always, contradictory. You have to remember that this is a party that has to appeal to religiously conservative black people, while also appealing to upper middle secularists. They are trying to appeal to both conservative religious muslims, and at the same time the powerful voting Jewish bloc.
It's not an easy tightrope to walk, but it's not regularly "ignoring demands of the party" it's "which of these two competing demands of our party can we ignore that will hurt us less?" They basically try to appeal to the voter, but that's impossible because they are trying to please too many disparate groups at the same time.
Republicans have the advantage of having to appeal to a smaller group and set of beliefs, and then just get everyone else to fall in line behind it (although that is being tested now with MAGA delusionalists vs the traditional conservatives). Republicans have been pushing this fear of different people (immigrants, different religions)and liberal elites for decades now (as you note in another post, via things like right wing media). . . it's just that they lost control of it when someone (Trump) rose up and fully embodied the id they had been fostering. . .and now they are just following the playbook where they have to get everyone to fall in in line behind that.
US republicans are doing the opposite, they're telling their voters what to believe
I'll be real, that situation seems pretty fucked, but I have no idea about US politics really, I'm from Wales.
That being said, our main political parties are essentially in this same state by the looks of things.
Its super fucked, but its also people conditioned to believe that the Democrats are out there trying to do work for them, when they are just as invested in the US monoparty as the Republicans are. And those people are the majority of people on lemmy, pretty much representing a down vote brigade whenever you criticize Democrats, or point out that they are part and parcel to the dysfunction in our political system. They aren't adjacent or subject to the problem; they are the cause and source and one of the primary beneficiaries of the dysfunctional state. The Democrats are not your friends. They aren't on your side. They have shown that at a national level they do not give a fuck about the polices they campaign on. If it wasn't for Democrats setting the table for it in 2008, there would be no MAGA movement right now. Failing to go after any kind of meaningful policies or actual criminal prosecution of the engineers of the financial crisis; effectively validating BAU and the Bush era policies and tax cuts: they had no interest in differentiating themselves from contemporaneous Republicans. This left the primary criticism on the table and perfectly valid: that the extant political system doesn't reflect the will of its users. Enter MAGA. A specific and reactionary populist movement to address this criticism precisely. And it works because its transactional. MAGA voters are getting what they pay for when they vote MAGA. The policies are horrendous and deplorable, but you can count on MAGA politicians to work to get them into place. And herein lies the crux of the matter: Democrats are not interested in the politics they campaign on. They do not work to get the things they campaign on into place, because there are no consequences to them for not getting the job done. This is a direct extension of 'Blue No Matter Who' and "Any Blue Will Do". Democrats always have an excuse for why it can't be done. Republicans who fail to get it done are replaced.
The Democratic party is the only one actually implementing positive changes, and half the things they do gets neutered by Republican politicians and judges. Infrastructure bills, student loan forgiveness, etc, are you not paying attention?
Republicans only fight for laws that hurt people.
This is the cost of failing to fully support Ukraine, while supporting Israel in a genocide.
Is Russia really in any position to be trying to wage war on multiple new fronts? Poland just implied Russia is going to attack Europe. With what? Dry Russian wit and empty vodka bottles?
Russia still has a lot of men and has already transitioned into a war-time economy. All Europe has done is have Baltics and Poland (and probably also Finland) go through potential invasion strategies, the rest of Europe doesn't even believe in the possibility of war. The only way circumstances could be better is if Trump gets elected because that old fuck will make sure to hamper US support. Other than that if you're going to invade you couldn't want better conditions.
I'm not saying it will happen. I'm going to say the invasion would the stupid and hardly beneficial for Russia and the logical thing would be to not invade. But I will add that I said the exact same thing about the invasion of Ukraine and we know how that went. I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibilities.
the invasion would the stupid and hardly beneficial for Russia and the logical thing would be to not invade. But I will add that I said the exact same thing about the invasion of Ukraine and we know how that went.
The main difference here though is the consideration of NATO. If you attack Ukraine you're attacking one country, if you attack NATO you're attacking many, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, who have some of the largest military's forces on the planet and access to nuclear weapons. Russia had reason to believe it might have actually win against Ukraine, there's no possible way they can think that they could win against NATO.
He's counting on NATO continuing to take the "let's just sanction him" approach. He's essentially hoping they're bluffing while he tries to get the gang back together. (USSR)
They won't do that if he's actually invading though. NATO's point is they won't ever escalate a situation. That whole point is to try and prevent something like world war II happening again. So declining war on Russia while he's attacking a non-nato country would be an escalation. But they're all about responding in kind to an attack against them.
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Just commenting so I can come back here when Russia invades another country
Why multiple fronts? The current conflict may be frozen under "right" circumstances, Putin will have several years to resupply. It doesn't matter if Ukrainian allies have more economical and technological power than Russia if people in places like Germany cry that Currywurst now costs 1 EUR more than 2 years ago, and just want this to be over.
Interesting that you chose Germany specifically, which is one of the largest contributors, both total and relative to GDP.
That being said, everybody needs to step up their game, including Germany. Just send the Tauruses, Olaf.
If I remember right, most polls show people are against sending weapons. This might be why Scholz is cautious about sending Tauruses. The Baltic states have warned for years that Russia is a threat, even before Ukraine was invaded in 2022. But others didn't listen to them then, and many still don't take them seriously. The truth is, Russia is doing better than Ukraine's allies because people think the conflict won't reach them, and they prefer not to support politicians who would sacrifice short-term benefits for long-term security.
I'm not disputing your main point, I just think it's interesting that you chose Germany as an example, which, as I wrote, is one of the top contributors, even adjusted for GDP.
I think most people are missing the strategy of modern Russian warfare. Is Russian going to roll tanks and soldiers into the Baltics this year? Probably not.
Russia is using more of an asymmetrical approach to warfare with a ramp up. On the low end is the disinformation campaign. (News and religion: there are a lot of Orthodox in Latvia) Economic "Little Green men" Conventional warfare Nukes or the threat of nukes
I'm the Baltics they are in the disinformation and economic section of the ramp up and are worried about escalation.
Also note Russia goes up and down that ramp escalating and descalating as they did in Ukraine.
Yeah kinda, that's how Russia has historically won wars and handled surplus population. Sort of why its so fucking big.
This is where the drive to withdraw from NATO comes from. Because if you withdraw before your puppet master would trigger article 5 you have no problem.
The US withdrawing from NATO would make NATO pretty much meaningless, since most other NATO members are part of the EU, which has its own military alliances. Notable exception being the UK.
I don't know if that is true. For the short term .. most definitely. But in the end a lot of countries still benefit from the mutual defense clause. NATO would have to reinvent itself for sure, but it is not an unsurmountable problem. It might cause the UK and Canada to withdraw too meaning it will be the defacto European military.
In the Long run the US would lose so much in their power position towards China. Because if Beijing can just keep trading with the EU and make money there, the US will have a much harder time doing their powerplay. China will annex Taiwan and noone will be able to prevent it.
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