The problem they have is that they have nowhere to expand to, and from US perspective there is nothing more that can be achieved there going forward. The US simply doesn't have the resources to take on Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time, so they're going to have to pick their battles going forward. The US sees China as the primary adversary, and I expect that Asia will be where US focus will increasingly shift. This necessarily means having to cut Europe loose. The other side of this is what we're seeing happening in France and Germany right now where liberal centre is collapsing. I fully expect that nationalist parties will take power within a few years, and these parties are hostile to NATO.

I think it'll hobble along for a few more years, but I don't think there's going to be any faith in the project going forward. If Trump gets elected, he's almost certainly going to pull funding and force Europe to pay. That will in turn cause a bigger rift across the Atlantic. The liberal centre in France and Germany is already collapsing, and where they go the rest will follow.

I think if US pulls money that will be the end, and US has to pick its battles at this point. Stepping up military investment is also driving austerity in Europe which is leading to a backlash against NATO. Hence why we're seeing nationalist parties gaining a lot of support. For example, RN in France and AfD in Germany are both openly hostile to NATO.