182

Harris leads Trump 2-1 among the earliest voters, many driven by abortion access: new poll (www.usatoday.com)

submitted 9 hours ago by PortoPeople@lemm.ee to c/politics@lemmy.world

34 comments fedilink hide all child comments

top 34 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[-] Rentlar@lemmy.ca 8 points 2 hours ago

Winning, losing, whatever, GO AND VOTE!

A Canadian provincial (state equivalent) election just happened and a number of races have a margin of difference under 200 votes. And though the polls were reasonably correct overall there were several upsets that were more than 10% off from polling like my riding. Campaigning makes a difference.

Get every eligible voter who is sick of Trump to go and cast their ballot. Get every man, woman and person you know out to protect American uteruses, American democracy, American freedom.

[-] Easyreever@lemmy.world 82 points 8 hours ago

Doesn’t matter, vote

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 8 points 4 hours ago

It matters, but only because Dems tend to vote early while Repubs vote on election day. If the ratio was 1:1, either Republican voting patterns would have changed drastically or Democrat turnout would be tanking.

[-] Omegamanthethird@lemmy.world 26 points 8 hours ago

As Trump found out in 2020, only the final vote count matters.

[-] Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works 8 points 6 hours ago

As Hillary and Trump found out in 2016.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 42 points 7 hours ago

Let's drive it up further. Republicans tend to vote more on election day, so let's make sure the early vote grows larger and larger

Find opportunities to volunteer around you and online

Voting early is also helpful for campaigns because they can stop bothering the people who've already voted and move on to other voters (that you vote is known, but who you vote for is not)

[-] ashok36@lemmy.world 30 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

For anyone thinking, "dems always vote early. This means nothing", consider :

This is the first presidential election since roe VS Wade fell.

This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.

There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that's me) that hate trump and can't wait to vote against him. Just look at Haley's primary votes. People talk about how the dems have lost young men but the Republicans, I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump's antics. It will just depend what state those balances work out in.

[-] PortoPeople@lemm.ee 1 points 34 minutes ago

I think you could argue too that a LOT of Dems are going to be voting in person this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Last election was during Covid and Democrats took it far more seriously than Republicans who thought it was all made up or whatever.

[-] Big_Boss_77@lemmynsfw.com 13 points 5 hours ago

Cool story bro, go vote.

[-] ashok36@lemmy.world 12 points 5 hours ago

Already did, thanks.

[-] Big_Boss_77@lemmynsfw.com 10 points 5 hours ago

Nah, figured you did, just for those who haven't yet.

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 1 points 4 hours ago

This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.

Why would we expect to see turnout in Nov of 2024 surpass turnout in Nov of 2022 based on an event that happened in Jan of 2021?

There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that’s me) that hate trump and can’t wait to vote against him.

The NeverTrump Republican is purely mythological. Anyone who was going to change parties did it back in 2020, and even then Trump energized far more lazy Rs than he lost among the Cheney wing of the party. This is evidenced by what few NeverTrump Republicans campaigned in the primaries getting crucified by their own party base.

I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump’s antics

You'd expect something like that to show up in the polls. Unfortunately, Ds and Rs are running neck-and-neck, in large part due to the internal policy among Democrats to purge its more progressive elements (your Cori Bushs and Jamaal Bowmans) in favor of corporate democrats more loyal to the donors than the constituencies.

Ds and Rs alike are facing headwinds from their own policies.

[-] Dot@feddit.org 3 points 5 hours ago

Previous discussions.

[-] Empricorn@feddit.nl 17 points 8 hours ago

Please didn't get complacent! Return your ballots, make sure your friends and family have a plan to vote, donate and volunteer; it's easy and might make all the difference!

[-] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 21 points 8 hours ago

DOESN'T MATTER - GO VOTE!!!

[-] cabron_offsets@lemmy.world 19 points 8 hours ago

Fucking good.

[-] octopus_ink@lemmy.ml 33 points 8 hours ago

I actually wish they wouldn't publish early results like this. Because you know there are people who will now go "well, I guess I don't actually need to vote afterall" or "I guess my Jill Stein vote is actually harmless afterall" etc.

This sort of thing (IMO) potentially gets less Harris votes down the line.

[-] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 9 points 7 hours ago

FWIW, studies have shown that voters are more likely to vote for a candidate they perceive as winning than one they perceive as losing.

[-] octopus_ink@lemmy.ml 7 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

I'd love nothing more than to be wrong, so if there are studies saying I am then that's great. I'm curious what it does to their likelihood to vote at all vs who they vote for.

It feels like what it should drive is complacency to me (along with energizing the R voters) but I'm super happy for my feeling to be wrong.

[-] Makeitstop@lemmy.world 5 points 5 hours ago

People who feel discouraged and demoralized are less likely to put in the effort to vote. The perception that your side is losing tends to demoralize, while the perception that your side is winning tends to be encouraging. And even among undecided voters, the bandwagon effect tends to nudge them towards the side they view as in the lead and more popular. This is why push polls have been around for ages, to influence people by convincing them that your side has more support than it really does.

The idea that people will get complacent is something that I think is largely inspired by the 2016 election, when turnout was relatively low and Hillary lost. But Hillary was also a deeply unpopular candidate with a lot of baggage that voters found hard to ignore. Harris isn't universally loved, but she's a lot more popular than Hillary was. And the stakes in 2016 weren't quite as obvious and stark as they are now.

[-] octopus_ink@lemmy.ml 2 points 4 hours ago

Those are good points!

[-] TipRing@lemmy.world 10 points 8 hours ago

It will also motivate Trump voters to get to the polls to counter. Plus a 2-1 at this point just shows Democrat enthusiasm being high, which is good, but early vote numbers are a poor predictor of election outcomes.

[-] cannibalkitteh@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 8 hours ago

That's why they do it! Gotta manufacture that last-minute nail-biter to keep the eyes glued to the TV for their 24 hour coverage leading up to the polls closing, and as long as it takes to count each state's votes!

[-] DBT@lemmy.world 1 points 7 hours ago

I thought they couldn’t actually count the votes until Election Day?

[-] Moobythegoldensock@lemm.ee 5 points 6 hours ago

They can’t, but organizations can conduct exit polls where they simply ask people who they voted for.

[-] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 4 points 6 hours ago

This is not a count, it's a poll of people who said they voted.

[-] spankmonkey@lemmy.world 2 points 8 hours ago

It will also motivate people who are worried that other people won't get out and vote, so it will incentivise them.

Not everything needs to be negative.

[-] octopus_ink@lemmy.ml 1 points 8 hours ago

I can't see how hearing "D is up 2x over R" doesn't help R more than D at this stage in the race.

Not everything needs to be negative.

And yet, some things are.

[-] spankmonkey@lemmy.world 8 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

I live in a state that has given all of the electoral college votes to a Republican since Nixon. Seeing a lot of Harris signs instead of Trump and early voting leaning Dem nationwide makes me motivated to vote instead of feeling completely defeated like in prior years.

Not that I think Harris will take the state, but that there is a chance.

[-] tiefling@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 points 7 hours ago

Counterpoint: I live in NYC and have seen more Trump signs and merch than I am comfortable with

[-] CluelessLemmyng@lemmy.sdf.org 3 points 7 hours ago

I live in the DC area. It's the same even though I know it's a solid blue area for like a 30 mile radius

[-] Rhaedas@fedia.io 3 points 7 hours ago

I was going to guess Texas and say there's a chance, but apparently Texas went to Carter. So one of the midwest states. Still...turnout could make a difference, I'd have to dig in real deep to see how many of the elections for all those states were close wins, even if they all went Republican. The advantage of some of them is the population, your vote there could count a lot more to push over the edge than in a populated state.

Can't change it if you don't actually vote. It also still ticks the popular vote up one more.

[-] Omegamanthethird@lemmy.world 1 points 8 hours ago

Dems: We got this.

Reps: Fuck I gotta go vote.

[-] MediaBiasFactChecker@lemmy.world -4 points 9 hours ago

USA Today - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)

Information for USA Today:

MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source

Search topics on Ground.News

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/21/harris-leads-trump-early-voting-abortion/75763483007/

Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2024

182 points (97.9% liked)

politics

19082 readers

3693 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News