76

Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.

What do you think?

First image is 2024, second is 2020.

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[-] shoulderoforion@fedia.io 65 points 4 weeks ago

After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.

[-] Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world 33 points 4 weeks ago

I used to joke that America is a terrible place, full of narcisists, liars, and assholes.

Trump isn't the cause of this. He's just exposed how much those jokes are based on reality, and are no longer jokes.

He's brought to the forefront our worst qualities, and confirmed the fact that no matter how much progress America has made, we're all still just a bunch of racists and assholes. And this time it's not a joke. It's confirmed.

[-] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 7 points 4 weeks ago

It appears that’s what won him the election. Yes turnout was down, but the demo percentages from 2020 to 2024 are not that much different outside of Latino voters.

And I must ask? How did Trump pull this off? And would Kamala have won without the Latino rightward shift?

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[-] ramenshaman@lemmy.world 46 points 4 weeks ago

Don't forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn't fucking vote in 2024

[-] Jake_Farm@sopuli.xyz 7 points 4 weeks ago

15 million of them. That is a staggering number.

[-] would_be_appreciated@lemmy.ml 29 points 3 weeks ago

15 million of them. That is a staggering number.

It's also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That's about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.

People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don't know, don't post.

[-] Jake_Farm@sopuli.xyz 17 points 3 weeks ago

It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.

[-] njm1314@lemmy.world 10 points 3 weeks ago

No, if you said it a week ago it would be outdated. The fact that you're still saying it is what makes it false. As you point it out new information is available. You're just using old information still.

By comparison if I wrote a book in the 1600s about the medical necessity of leaching, that would be outdated today. If I wrote a book about the medical necessity of leaching in 2024 that would just be false.

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[-] would_be_appreciated@lemmy.ml 5 points 3 weeks ago

We both know the reasonable way to interpret your post, and the way nearly everybody would interpret it, is that that's the current or final count. It's also outdated to say 74 million fewer people voted for Harris, but at one point, that was in fact the count. But it's more than outdated - it's misleading to the point of being factually inaccurate to any observer.

I can't believe instead of being like "oh shit, I made a mistake, my bad, I better think for a second about this in the future" you're going to try to justify it. Whatever, that's social media at this point I guess. Surely I'm not the problem, says everybody feeding misinformation in a giant circle. I thought Lemmy might be better, but it's just not. Thank you for convincing me to finally give all social media up.

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[-] deegeese@sopuli.xyz 40 points 4 weeks ago

I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.

[-] hendrik@palaver.p3x.de 8 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)... Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren't that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn't have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you'd probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.

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[-] pennomi@lemmy.world 8 points 4 weeks ago

With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.

[-] FourPacketsOfPeanuts@lemmy.world 8 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

It's hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.

Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.

Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start..

[-] 2nd_Fermenter@lemmy.world 5 points 3 weeks ago

As another White Dude for Harris, I concur entirely. It's definitely an issue with white dudes.

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[-] 3dogsinatrenchcoat@slrpnk.net 38 points 3 weeks ago

White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him

[-] Flocklesscrow@lemm.ee 14 points 3 weeks ago

What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug

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[-] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 33 points 3 weeks ago
[-] sygnius@lemmy.world 27 points 3 weeks ago

As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There's really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.

Also, first, there's not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it's only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn't going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.

[-] orcrist@lemm.ee 26 points 3 weeks ago

Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It's so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you're doing.

This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it's the Latinos' fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).

[-] Revonult@lemmy.world 23 points 3 weeks ago

White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.

I am ashamed of my peers.

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[-] bear@lemmynsfw.com 21 points 3 weeks ago

Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that's Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.

[-] Jackthelad@lemmy.world 19 points 4 weeks ago

"Are we out of touch with our core voters?"

"No, it's the voters who are wrong".

This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.

[-] Landless2029@lemmy.world 15 points 3 weeks ago

Kamala lost because the Dems didn't show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those "undecided" and "obstainers" that didn't just stay home. They didn't bother doing a mail in.

[-] M0oP0o@mander.xyz 5 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Second highest voter turnout in the US. A difference of only 2,624,285 as per University of Florida estimates so far (the number is likely to go down).

This excuse is getting old.

One, you are assuming people who did not vote would vote dems.

Two, you are pushing blame to the voters who did not show up (and based on the lack of choice it is wild so many showed up)

Three, by pushing that blame on to voters you are almost asking for this to happen again. (By letting the dems keep being crap, pissing off voters, and getting people angry at their neighbours helps the republicans)

[-] hydrospanner@lemmy.world 9 points 3 weeks ago

First, an explanation isn't an excuse. It's a reason. It doesn't make it okay, it doesn't place or shift blame, it just correctly points something out.

In this case, Trump broadly received the same number of votes as he did 4 years ago, while the Democrats got millions fewer.

There's no assumption there, it's just an observation.

It's not pushing or assigning blame. Maybe they didn't vote because they were lazy. Maybe they didn't vote because they didn't like Harris. Maybe they didn't vote because they didn't like the process by which she became the nominee. Maybe they didn't vote because they've lost faith in the entire system.

Regardless of reason, and regardless of how any observer decides to interpret it or assign blame, the facts speak for themselves.

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[-] Kalcifer@sh.itjust.works 14 points 3 weeks ago

It's really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What's each column?

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[-] Krono@lemmy.today 13 points 4 weeks ago

Your narrative is that Latinos "shifted right" but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.

Look at the Democrats' 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing "left of center" such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.

[-] pyre@lemmy.world 7 points 3 weeks ago

wow, you answer one question about abortion by saying immigrants are rapists and suddenly people feel abandoned. tsk tsk.

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[-] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Democrats failed to solve people's issues. That's just it.

But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.

Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn't change any person individual values.

But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.

This doesn't negate any Latin American person who is progressive, of course. Just talking about averages and the reality that was shown by the polls.

In general Democrats, and any left leaning party, think that because they defend immigrants, immigrants will support them by default. This has been shown far from the truth. If someone have conservative values they will probably vote for a conservative party. That's just it. One person won't become progressive (as in stopping being sexist or transphobic) just because they moved from one country to another. An immigrant is a whole person with their own sets of values, both before and after they migrate, and won't be reduced to "being an immigrant" when voting, specially once they are legally settled in a place and their residence won't be at risk, they will just vote for their values. If they have conservative values they'll vote conservative if they have progressive values they'll vote progressive.

[-] Wes4Humanity@lemm.ee 10 points 3 weeks ago

Many legal immigrants get pissed if you conflate them with illegal immigrants. They try very hard distance themselves from those people. Couple that with pervasive machismo and Catholic ignorance and this is what you get.

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[-] ShellMonkey@lemmy.socdojo.com 12 points 4 weeks ago

Need some titles on those columns. I'm guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?

The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.

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[-] TempermentalAnomaly@lemmy.world 12 points 3 weeks ago

These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.

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[-] Maeve@kbin.earth 11 points 3 weeks ago

The Dems would have won if they ran a campaign relevant to the struggling and apprehensive. They didn't. They lost.

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[-] enbyecho@lemmy.world 11 points 3 weeks ago

I know! Let's blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.

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[-] Yerbouti@sh.itjust.works 11 points 3 weeks ago

Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.

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[-] El_guapazo@lemmy.world 9 points 4 weeks ago

The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris' policies.

[-] zbyte64@awful.systems 21 points 4 weeks ago

Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from "he's a fascist" to "let's put out differences aside". Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.

[-] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 10 points 4 weeks ago

I object!

White men voting for trumpism is also the issue.

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[-] scarabic@lemmy.world 8 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that US Latinos should be appalled at the way Trump painted Mexican immigrants as criminals.

But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on those recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level.

So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about simple “me” economics, not “we” identity.

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[-] ZombiFrancis@sh.itjust.works 7 points 3 weeks ago

A functional, coherent working class policy would've ticked some of those numbers in the campaign's favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.

[-] uebquauntbez@lemmy.world 7 points 3 weeks ago

Kamala Harris lost cause she's female. And didn't ~~lie~~ promise (that much) to voters. And had the richest 0.5% of US voters against her. This is cause the oldest wannabe-democracy of the world lost his state long ago.

[-] Nougat@fedia.io 6 points 4 weeks ago

I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.

[-] Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago

If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.

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this post was submitted on 24 Nov 2024
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