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I don't know if I'm going crazy but looking at the current situation in the world ... please tell me that I'm overexagurating

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[-] chaosCruiser@futurology.today 17 points 1 day ago* (last edited 22 hours ago)

In 2001 there was that 9/11 thing and it sounded like WW3 had just started. Turns out, it didn't. Well, lots of things did happen as a result of it, but WW3 wasn't one of them. Soon after that, USA was involved in a number if wars in the middle east and it felt like WW3 had just started. Again, it didn't. Some time around 2010s the tension between North Korea and South Korea was getting pretty intense, and a friend of mine started talking WW3... As usual, WW3 didn't start.

At the moment, the situation in Ukraine feels just like all the other major incidents, but we'll see how it works out. If you expose your mind to tabloid journalism, it begins to feel like the entire world is about to explode. History has a tendency of repeating itself, so I suggest reading about the things that lead to WW1 and WW2. Once, you've done that, you'll begin to pay attention to certain signs and start ignoring most of the nonsense tabloids keep writing about.

[-] tetris11@lemmy.ml 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

That's just survivorship bias, you didn't live through the worlds where all those things escalated into flat out war, you dimension skipping hippie.

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[-] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 22 points 1 day ago

I've been expecting WW3 since 1983.

[-] AnarchoDakosaurus@toast.ooo 4 points 1 day ago

Only Wiseman in the thread.

[-] iii@mander.xyz 11 points 1 day ago

It's reminiscent of the cold war.

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 day ago

Anything could happen of course, but I don't see this as a likely scenario myself. What's more likely is that we return to bloc competition similar to what we saw during the Cold War. Except this time it's going to be G7 against the BRICS.

[-] Stovetop@lemmy.world 7 points 1 day ago

Star Trek says that we shouldn't expect World War 3 until 2026, so we've got 1 more year to live to the fullest before then.

I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:

  • Continued Syrian Civil War: wont be pretty but escalation is unlikely
  • Palestinian occupation: Will absolutely continue to be horrific but none of the neighboring Arab counties care enough to escalate (or risk US aid)
  • Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
  • India/China border dispute: They'll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
  • US/Canada/Mexico/Greenland conflict: Who knows tbh, most likley Trump is running off his mouth as always
  • China/Taiwan: I severly doubt it, in addition the US is moving microchip manufacturing to the US so strategic value may loosen

Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.

[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 6 points 1 day ago

Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.

How do you imagine the EU will do that exactly? The EU has no military industrial capacity to speak of, it doesn't have access to cheap energy, and it's becoming politically unstable. A far more likely scenario here is that the EU starts breaking up, and nationalist parties start realigning their countries towards Russia because the US will leave EU to hang.

I would imagine that if Russian agression continues than nationalist parties would loose steam

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[-] wewbull@feddit.uk 8 points 1 day ago

No.

Russia (the current primary aggressor) is on the brink of a banking system collapse. It doesn't have the money to wage war on a bigger scale than it already is.

China is far more interested in trade than hostilities.

The middle east has been a tinder box for over a hundred years. I don't see it dragging outsiders into it and hopefully we have a respite coming.

Central Asia has tension between India and Pakistan, but that's nothing new. India could piss off China or the reverse, and if that kicked off the loss of life could be on a scale that would be unprecedented but still I think it wouldn't drag the west in.

The US has joined the party

[-] small44@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

Sorry if i misinterpreted your comment but saying that the middle east has been a tinder box for century feel like it alluding that other regions like Europe has less conflicts and is less prone to violence

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[-] davel@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 day ago

According to the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, we are closer to nuclear war now than ever in history. Closer than when boomers were doing school duck and cover drills.

2024 Doomsday Clock Statement: A moment of historic danger: It is still 90 seconds to midnight

[-] DragonsInARoom@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago
[-] GlassHalfHopeful@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 day ago
[-] Xaphanos@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago

I think it has already started. It just hasn't consolidated yet.

[-] Franconian_Nomad@feddit.org 3 points 1 day ago

I don’t expect it, but I don’t rule it out either.

Just a warning for everyone who isn’t worried: you expect that the leaders of the world act logically and like adults. That might be a mistake.

[-] Azzu@lemm.ee 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Actually I don't expect them to act logically or "adult", whatever you mean by that. Adulthood doesn't mean anything.

But that they don't act like that is exactly why I think there won't be any world scale wars.

[-] RoidingOldMan@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago

You never really know, it's plausible. But I doubt it. It doesn't seem any more likely now than it did in 2016.

Ceasefire in Gaza for a minimum of 6 weeks (if I understood the news correctly) is huge. That conflict might be close to over if we're lucky.

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[-] xc2215x@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

No but there will be wars.

[-] Zeppo@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago

Current circumstances do seem worrisome. But, we've been threatened with that for all my life, and even decades before I was born. So who knows. MAD is a certain thing and I don't think entire countries are unstable enough to let that happen. I'm not really sure what Putin is getting at threatening all of Europe. The situation with China and Taiwan doesn't look good, with the US pledge of taking Taiwan's side for independence.

It’ll take longer than 2 years. It’ll take a decade.

[-] sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

My vibes based analysis says atleast in the next ten years

[-] BJHanssen@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

Nah we’re speedrunning the 20s currently, so it’ll probably be another ten, fifteen years or so.

[-] WoodScientist@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago

Many will say that World War Three cannot happen, that nuclear weapons will prevent it. However, this assumes that World War Three has to be global thermonuclear war, rather than some repeat of the previous world wars.

Cities don't have to be leveled for nations to fight a world war. The US fought two world wars, and we never had our cities and infrastructure decimated. What I can imagine is a future world war where all the major players fight the war in the same way the US fought the two previous wars. Both sides contribute massive resources, adopt wartime economies, throw their whole populations behind the effort etc, but at no point do the various combatants directly attack the main territory and population centers of the other side. You could have a conflict where both sides lost millions of troops fighting it out in some third party territory, but the nukes never fly as all sides realize that invading the home territory of the others is suicide.

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[-] lordnikon@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

No I really don't I see water wars and cold war style espionage but no WW2 style conflict. But I also think we will have Societal collapse by 2030 due to climate change and being unable to grow food. Honestly after Cheeto got reelected I have just gone numb to all the of it. I am savoring each day.

I hug my love ones just a little longer than I used to. I write a log of each day to I remember it a little better. I have made a bucket list and I'm trying to check off as much as possible. But even with all that I sometimes catch myself mourning the earth. Also it's good to video your love ones it's awkward but it will be nice to hear their voice when you can't anymore.

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[-] small44@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

We already are, just in a smaller scale than ww1 and 2

[-] chaosCruiser@futurology.today 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

In the previous world wars there were various alliances between many countries, but eventually two sides emerged. If you see two clear sides engaging in active warfare against each other, you'll know that WW3 has started. At the moment, it's a bit more complicated than that. Seems to me that there are a bunch of disconnected conflicts going on, but the big picture of a proper world war hasn't really emerged yet.

[-] sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 day ago

I see two clear sides engaging in numerous proxy wars with eachother at the very least. I wouldn't call it comparable to either world wars yet but it puts me on my toes

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[-] Vaggumon@lemm.ee -1 points 1 day ago

Hope so, it's long past time for a reboot.

[-] stinky@redlemmy.com 4 points 1 day ago

the rich will survive, the poor will die

[-] Vaggumon@lemm.ee 1 points 1 day ago

I'm disabled and well below the poverty line, I'm fully aware where I would end up in a class war.

[-] Edie@lemmy.ml 2 points 21 hours ago

You are already living in a class war. You are below the poverty line because of it.

[-] sit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 1 day ago

Thankfully nukes exist = (war on a big enough scale = mutual destruction (the people in power want to keep their position))

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this post was submitted on 18 Jan 2025
49 points (72.1% liked)

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