The polls are wrong as long as they keep clashing with electoral reality. Nate Copper's article is heavy on poll data but flimsy on electoral anecdotes: a county election in 2020 and New York Elections with inconvenient data lopped off (The recent elections to replace George Santos).

The shift the polls are claiming are so seismic that it begs the question why this unprecedented shift is non-existent in basically every post-dobbs election. And let's not forget the fact that these polls present other, nonsensical trends to like the elderly shifting hard to Democrats too: a shift that can't easily be waved off by the usual "The shift is only in voters that only vote in presidential elections" excuse.

A lot of folks here are rightfully pessimistic about this being the actual end, considering the past history of articles like this.

I'd like to present the possibility that the GOP is crumbling BECAUSE of why those years weren't the end for the GOP like articles predicted: Trump is inflicting the same institutional damage to the RNC Obama inflicted on the DNC. The same kind of damage that gave an opening for Republicans to revitalize themselves.

The only problem is whether if there will be enough rot by this year's election: the biggest evidence of the DNC's shrivelling under Obama's shadow was the 2016 election where Hillary basically saved them from death in exchange for fealty. It's not entirely clear if the 2010 losses were from early damage or just the upswell of reactionary outrage to Obama's presidency.

The percentage is more important, and it's basically the same size as 2012 which is the appropriate comparison (2016 and 2020 had other, viable candidates to vote for).

Numbers are higher... But that's the issue isn't it? Seems to me an even larger portion of voters came out to "anti-protest" the protest voters too.