If liberals in big enough numbers cost Biden the presidency, imagine their shock when they discover trump is way way worse than Joe ever was on issues in the Middle East they care about. These people remind me of the handful of “Democrats” I know personally that refused to vote for Hillary because they just knew she’d be no different than trump. 3 SCOTUS radicals, an attempted Coup later and Roe v Wade now overturned, I wonder if they are happy with their decision?

I'm definitely not happy with Biden supporting genocide, but the alternative is way worse. Biden is the least bad option with any hope of victory, so he'll be getting my very frustrated but strategically sound vote.

unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004

And even then we'll re-elect the asshole who sent them there.

American politics is so fucking broken I'd weep if I weren't dead inside from seeing this happen over and over again. And the worst part is that people here actually want this shit.

In 2020, Biden carried four swing states by less than 2 percent: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If the 2024 election were again agonizingly close, would-be Biden voters infuriated by Israel’s conduct in Gaza could make a difference by staying home or opting for a third-party candidate. But the same is true for other issues that arouse passions like guns, immigration, and abortion.

Lol...

So the author admits Biden is dangerously close to losing, but he doesn't think Gaza matters because lots of other issues could lose the election...

So he thinks we should just ignore all the issues and plow ahead with a candidate we all know could easily lose.

History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.

History does suggest that but we are in the present. It's now rated one of the top issues facing the country. Maybe voters will forget all about it by November, but it seems pretty important as things stand now.

Best hope for Biden is for this nightmare in Gaza to end. Obviously Trump is worse, but it's not a good look for Biden in any case. He could stop supporting Israel but I don't know what the death toll would have to reach for that to happen

I'm not convinced.

Biden is super pro Israel, has been forever.

Trump is super pro Israel. But also is pro money. And pro being schmoozed. And pro Saudi. Honestly he's pro-himself only.

The American public at large doesn't GAF about Palestine. I bet 90% can't even point out where in the world Israel is on a map even if they are Bible thumping Jerusalem lovers.

If Trump gets into office, you better believe Saudi, Qatar, and the UAE will be whispering sweet nothing's into his ear while donating some sweet money to his corporations to care more about Palestine. Trump Estate's, a new Palestinian village coming soon.

With Biden you know what you're getting. With Trump you don't know. So if this is your single issue... I could see it mattering.

People vote against their interests or irrationally based on a single talking point all the time. It's time to stop giving so much reverance to the US voter. They do not research and carefully weigh their options. Most vote tribally for whoever has the right letter. The rest are too stupid or brave to admit the choice they made up 3 years earlier. Very few are truly swing voters and of you can't pick a side at this point, you're exactly the type of person that would vote for someone giving you a free sandwich or that agrees with your one talking point you love.

Yeah, the average American doesn't care enough about the Israel/Gaza genocide. Like if it was between Biden and a moderate or more progressive candidate that didn't support Israel's genocide then maybe. But even then you run up against the generations of Pro-Israel bias that has been fostered in America a lot of people aren't even aware of. It just won't matter on election day. Americans will care a lot more about issues that affect them like abortion.

It's the economy, stupid.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/consumer-prices-up-3-0-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2023.htm

"Over the year ended June 2023, consumer prices increased 3.0 percent, after increasing 4.0 percent over the year ended in May 2023. The June 2023 increase was the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. A year earlier, in June 2022, the 12-month increase in overall prices was 9.1 percent, and had been 7.0 percent or higher in the preceding 6 months."

Okay, I don't have a lot of confidence in this, but I assume the average American is actually pro-Israel? At least the swing "independent" voters?

Like I know young people are pro-Palestine but those people probably wouldn't vote for Trump in any case and probably live in strongly blue states?

Yeah, but I doubt average Americans think about international relations and macro trends in that way when voting. The economy is “booming”, but people are not experiencing the boom, and are rather complaining about increased cost of living, coupled with rising crime in cities like NYC due to a challenging refugee situation.

If I was a betting man, that will score higher in the voting booth than Middle East policies, NATO, green new deal or RvW, and I think there are a number of democrats who are unhappy, but won’t necessarily vote for Trump, however they might not be voting Biden either.

I think the balance of power has shifted a bit between the US and Israel, such that many people are overestimating how much sway the US has over Israel. Since about the 90's, Israel had set about trying to reduce their own dependence on the US for its military needs, specifically because they didn't want to be beholden to our demands and they didn't see us as a reliable partner. While the GOP mostly gives them the greenlight on anything (at least since after Bush I's term), the Democrats have the gall to want a more balanced approach to the peace process, to actually consider Palestinians. Everyone still has this idea that Israel is completely dependent on the US for everything, but that's just not the case anymore. Pre-Oct 7, they'd made peace with neighbors, it's relatively cheap for them to maintain the Iron Dome system (that we did most of the setup for, but it's drastically cut down on the effect of rocket attacks), and the amount of aid that the US provides is a smaller % of their GDP. It's just a different world now.

I think if we were to push the subject of them ending their offensive, they'd say, "Fuck off," and go to China or maybe Russia for whatever weapon needs they still have, someone who won't give them any shit about genocide. I think we should still do it anyways, because we can't be an impartial broker of peace as long as we're supplying weapons to one side of the conflict. I think Biden/Democrats are trying to walk a fine line here, they probably honestly want the Gaza war to end, but there's a fear of pissing off weapons companies and AIPAC, it would hurt them bad in elections. It's still the right thing to do, but I'm guessing that's part of the calculus.

Is it because Biden isn't president of Israel?

I bet it's that.