If you remove the English Army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle, unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts will be in vain. England will still rule you. She would rule you through her capitalists, through her landlords, through her financiers, through the whole array of commercial and individualist institutions she has planted in this country and watered with the tears of our mothers and the blood of our martyrs

James Connolly, Socialism and Nationalism 1897

A travel story in which a white American woman delays a trip to Mongolia for a year because she would have to briefly enter Russia, has what sounds like an uneventful regular ass road trip, forgets what is described as a “piece of paper” but is likely her visa entry card meaning when she tries to exit she doesn’t have a valid visa, nonetheless is allowed to exit without incident after authorities verify her identity, and it is breathlessly written like a harrowing trip through a gulag.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/05/travel/road-trip-russia-mongolia-american-woman/index.html

How Conflict in the Middle East Could Send Oil Prices Soaring

From the energy sector’s perspective, Iran could threaten to further disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 30 percent of all the world’s oil has historically transited. Similar threats in the past have caused big spikes in the oil price. A less direct threat would be using its Yemeni Houthi proxy forces to step up the level of attacks on oil shipping elsewhere around the Red Sea region, which would also put upward pressure on oil prices. The Houthis could also be used to launch direct attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, as the group threatened to do recently if Saudi Arabia continued to allow U.S. warplanes to use its territory for military strikes against the Yemeni rebel group.

Alternatively, Iran could widen out its previously called-for embargo by Islamic members of OPEC on oil exports to Israel’s allies as well as to Israel itself. This would mirror exactly what Saudi Arabia did in 1973/74 to countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War with Egypt and Syria. As global oil supplies fell, the price increased dramatically, exacerbated by incremental cuts to oil production by OPEC members over the period. Gas prices also rose, as historically around 70 percent of them are comprised of the price of oil. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen around 267 percent, from about US$3 per barrel (pb) to nearly US$11 pb. This, in turn, stoked the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the net oil-importing countries of the West.

AI tech bubble bursting is just a feint to make an opening for the left hook of oil price shocks to take down the great Satan.

I foresee a very sudden shift towards restoring dialog with Russia in the Tarot cards.

Edit: although for the US gdp overall it would probably be a good thing since the US is currently a massive oil producer so the “the economy isn’t crashing” team would still claim victory I am sure, this would still simply wreck manufacturing & logistics & everything that is not directly related to causing earthquakes in Texas and Alberta.

It unequivocally sucks to be Europe, as it should be.

The chief financial druids are consulting the entrails of a bird to decide which industry gets a bailout

Copy and pasting from CNN since linking to breaking news doesn’t let me link to the story itself

Stocks are tumbling. But, no, America's market is not "crashing”

The US stock market looks like it’s going to have another very rough day on Monday. But this is not what a market crash looks like.

US futures, which give investors a sense of how the market will open at 9:30 am ET, are sharply lower. Dow futures are down 800 points, or 2%. Futures for the broader S&P 500 are 2.9% lower. And futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which entered correction territory (a 10% decline from the peak) fell 4.2%.

That’s bad, but it’s not close to historically bad. By comparison, Japan’s Nikkei 225 plummeted 12% Monday — that’s a crash.

The Dow’s worst drop, measured by points, in history, came in the early days of the pandemic: It fell 2,997 points on March 16, 2020, a decline of 12.9%. The broader S&P 500 fell 12% that day — the second-worst decline in history.

But that wasn’t even close to “Black Monday,” the worst US stock market crash ever. The Dow on October 19, 1987, fell 22.6% in a single session. That day, the S&P 500 nosedived 20.3%.

The US trading day hasn’t even begun, and strange things can happen when fear takes hold on Wall Street. But — at least so far — this is not what a market crash looks like.

My “the markets aren’t in melt down” shirt has people asking a lot of questions that are answered by my shirt.

Whatever you think is happening right now, the bank manager wants you to know that your money is safe and you should definitely exit the queue of people seeking to withdraw their money.

It’s SO fucking Joever.

Labour concedes on just about everything to the right and the right continue moving right, and now we are at the pogrom stage.

This is the news mega equivalent of queuing overnight to buy Tay Tay tickets

God if they launch the missiles in the next 3 hours I’m not going to get any sleep tonight so I hope they wait at least 4

The third great realignment is in progress.

Mark my words, the Dems will continue transforming into the strong on crime, borders, and provide a promise of “responsible administration” in alliance with capital finance and continue to shed the coalition of interest groups that constitute the “activist base”.

Meanwhile the labor movement will continue to chuddify and align with extractive industries, isolationist / protectionist manufacturing, and homophobes making the GOP the home for the actually existing labor movement, which will be reactionary.

Most of the LG in LGBT will go with finance capital as they have been gentrified now, B will just get lip service and the T dropped out into the desert like an pet bought at Christmas.

Leftism will be split between the progressive wing who will prefer the civility cult of the Dems vs chuddy transphobe MAGA commies.

Please, Xi.

Isn’t “Russian planes patrol near Alaska” literally synonymous with “Russian planes patrol near Russia”?

So Joe didn’t really have Covid?

He just took a 4 day break?

The president of the United States just quiet quit.

Biden is faking COVID.

Which really means his team have decided to pivot to a “small target” strategy. To stay out of the news.

A small target strategy is a good idea when you’re winning. Its a viable political play when you’re winning because you will bleed some support due to a loss of enthusiasm but the cost / benefit is still favorable when you’re winning since you dramatically reduce your risk of a major fuck up.

That is to say, you’re trading support for risk. A “small target” strategy works by accepting the cost of losing some support in exchange for dramatically reducing the risk of losing a lot of support.

Biden is polling at George W Bush levels and he’s behind Trump. The political cost calculus doesn’t work out. He must be stepping down or simply giving up.

Or maybe he has covid and he might die.