[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 1 points 8 months ago

Can we put numbers to that and prove it to convince at least some? Or is it a religious topic?

You replied to a thread where I literally did

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 3 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Hillary, who you voted for, wanted to eliminate the Castle Doctrine, which makes this sort of thing legal.
So I think you need to decide whose side you’re on.

No, I'm not some fucking lib toeing the democratic party line, and criticizing someone for that is "RINO republican" bullshit with a D at the front. I also think her policy against police abuse of waxing poetic about its tragedies while advocating for further funding is bootlicking bullshit, I think her stance against abolishing the death penalty while downplaying its minimum 4% false positive rate in killing innocent people fueled by a 69% rate of official misconduct and 15% rate of judges overruling jury decisions to enforce the death penalty as "very unfortunate & discriminatory" is blatantly prioritizing bootlicking over actual justice, I don't think her stance at that time to merely reschedule marijuana as schedule II rather than full legalization is sufficient, and her policy of "the cops can have a little stop & frisk, as a treat" is more of the above. And no, I don't support eliminating the castle doctrine or passing duty to retreat laws for one's own home either.

But I'm sure if I instead cited these disagreements as why I didn't vote for any candidate you'd be perfectly understanding, right?

And what about this situation makes you think "this sort of thing" was legal here? The shooter was charged with manslaughter & armed criminal action with a bail of $100k.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 0 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

the act of “home invasion” is fundamentally different in the UK and the US

Yes, I alluded to this by rhetorically asking why US burglars are half as willing to break in while an occupant is home. Still wondering why that would ever be.

turning “somebody stole my iPad” into “somebody stole my iPad and then shot me in the spine”.

Household burglaries ending in homicide make up 0.004% or 1 in 25,000 break-ins, and with national firearm injury rates being roughly double homicide rates that should mean roughly 1 in 8,333 break-ins leave the homeowner injured or killed to guns. That would math to 108 households in 2021 with occupants killed/injured by guns in 2021, or over 1 in a million yearly odds. Compared to the near-identical odds between the 2 countries of being assaulted or having other violent crime done against you if you see the burglars (27% vs 26%), it's a weird edge case to focus on while dismissing the entire collection of crime it's a minuscule subset of.

Also wild to see "you'll be shot while complying" in this argument, normally it's people saying anyone practicing self-defense thinks they're Rambo and that they'd be better off just ascribing best-intentions to the assailant and giving them what they want.

Again, the point of this isn't to say that concern about gun violence is wrong or nutty, it's to argue that concerns about violent home invasion are even less paranoid than that.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 3 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

If they’re supplying them, they’re usually bullshit

No need for hypotheticals here, we've got hard examples of stats & studies that either are or aren't bs. Although the only bit I talk about on gun violence is from the GVA, but you're welcome to call them BS if you wish.

there’s a layer of murder on top of every crime

At ~20,000/year, it's 1 in 17,500 people. Or 1 in 6,180 households to keep comparisons equal.

The point of the comparison isn't to downplay gun violence, as should have been evident by how I'm arguing an equally-likely violent home invasion isn't something to dismiss.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social -1 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

where does the “37,500 break-in assaults” number come from when it’s 3x higher than what your source lists?

Specifying assault specifically was a mistake on my part, as I said the math came from the article's citations on all violent crimes experienced by occupants during break-ins multiplied against the year's 583,000 burglaries. Of that 26% number, 18% is assault while 6% is armed robbery and 2% is rape. I'm not sure where the article's 11,000 claim comes from, as that number is uncited and would represent a substantial decrease vs the numbers they have citations for, which showed consistent values year-to-year in the mid-2000s though at a significantly higher overall rate of burglaries at 3.7 million/year. The closest number I can think of would be if they're just counting specifically aggravated assault, which using the cited percentage of occurring in 4.5% of occupied break-ins would come to 10,125 instances in 900,000 break-ins.

And actually, re-reading the article shows the 600,000 burglary number only accounts for 69% of the US population whose law enforcement reports numbers to the FBI, real numbers from the FBI are 900,000 for the past couple years making that number's discrepancy even worse with the math's number of 62,100. I'm not able to find any more recent data on either a % or a hard-number of home invasions resulting in assault or other violent crime victimization, if you have any please share.

Meaning you’re 4x more likely to be shot by someone than assaulted during a burglary

Coming at me citing suicide stats in a crime discussion, nice! And not even applying them correctly, using the number of deaths as a stat for being shot at all. I already referenced a more accurate, if still flawed, number by summing injuries & deaths from the GVA above.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social -1 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

you take as the given that individual gun violence is a likely threat in most of the country

I don't. As I said, poverty & organized crime is a driving factor in both burglaries & gun violence moreso than any other metric and heavily skews those statistics between localities. Many regions will have rates 3-4x that. I also feel like you're minimizing the part where it's 1 in ~~3300~~ 1990 per year, which applied over even just 50 years comes to ~~1.6%~~ 2.5% of people experiencing it in their lives. Hell, the total burglary number of ~~600,000~~ 900,000 is nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US.

It would absolutely be inconsistent to cite gun violence stats as a cause of concern for the average person (2) (3) while dismissing being assaulted in a burglary, nevermind being burgled at all, as an essentially zero chance.

As an interesting point of reference, UK home break-ins occur at a rate of 578,000 yearly for a population with just 27.8 million households. That works out to 2% of households yearly being burgled, and per the first source over half of those occur while someone is present in the house (twice as often as happens in the US). Here's another source citing a 1.27% rate of domestic burglary for the year ending in June 2023, and that's vs the US rate of 0.728% (1.7-2.7 times higher). I can't find any sources for what percentage of these break-in lead to assaults on the occupants, but for even the more conservative number of 1.27% from earlier and 50% of those being occupied homes, a rate higher than 6.90% of those occupied burglaries leading to assault would place the odds of being assaulted in your home in the UK higher than in America. This article working off of 2020 ONS data cites that of the 64.1% of incidents where someone is home 46% were aware and saw their burglars, and of those 48% reported being threatened and 27% reported force or violence being used against them. Plugging that into the most recent rate of 1.27% being burgled, that comes out to a 1 in 989 chance yearly of being a victim of violent crime by burglars in your own house, double that of the US.

I wonder what's different about American households that so dramatically shifts both the number of break-ins as well as how/when they occur. Poverty certainly plays a role, where the UK's poverty rate after housing expenses is twice that of the US (22% vs 11%). Doesn't explain the nature of the break-ins though.

Edit: See math from earlier post, actual number is 1 in 1,990 yearly, or a 2.5% chance of experiencing violent crime in a home invasion over 50 years. Also makes the rate of burglary nearly thrice the rate of house fires in the US. Updated the math throughout the UK paragraph to match.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 1 points 9 months ago

"You made us make this inane law"

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 2 points 11 months ago

911 funding is a convoluted mess between municipalities and states that's separate from "funding for law enforcement" and HAS been woefully under budgeted, especially as systems need upgrading.

Calling cops to an overdose instead of EMS is part of the fucking problem.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social -1 points 1 year ago

That American liberals focus on rifles in regards to gun violence more than 1/20 as much as they do handguns or 1.75x as much as the president's recommended shotgun, nevermind the fervor for AWBs, betray the lack of concern and understanding of the issues truly driving America's culture of violence beyond "big ones are scarier".

All compounded by their laws' universal exemptions for police current and former, on-and-off-the-clock demonstrating no fear of arming the most violent among us as long as they swear fealty to minority oppression and dissident suppression in the name of maintaining capital's status quo, sleeping sound assuming those barrels won't turn inwards towards them. Hell, that the fight against gun violence now includes banning armor to protect oneself from it shows how important it is that we be obliged to let them indulge.

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

any situation where a person pulls a gun on a person without a gun is not a defensive use of a gun

"You must defend from your assailants with an attack of equal or lesser hit points or it doesn't count." Am I allowed to pepper spray someone punching me? Or do I need to know what they bench first? Where do knives rank on the chart? And how does this system scale with multiple assailants?

Any interaction between two gun wielding individuals is similarly not a case of a good guy preventing violence

"You prevented nothing, sir"

[-] TonyStew@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

This isn’t an error. It’s people claiming to have done a thing they did not do and demanding to be added to the count.

You're allowed to read the article, you know. They literally cite with corroborated news articles every single claimed omission, they didn't compile this from Google form submissions. They're not "I had a knife pulled on me in an alley" stories, they're instances of live fire into crowds that the FBI is drastically undercounting due to reliance on either local law enforcement reporting incidents or national news media reporting on them. I don't think these are the numbers you'd get with omniscience, real story here to me is that the FBI undercounts so drastically (and potentially with such bias) that you can cite enough new instances to swing their results by an order of magnitude.

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TonyStew

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