Well, often they know it´s hard to estimate, but the entire corporate system is built around having things done by a certain date, your time costs money and payments are usually linked to those dates. They don´t really have a choice but to make a planning based on the estimates you give and monitor the progress so they can give the proper level of panic to their bosses. Of course, software has always been a disaster with estimates and attempts to tame the chaos haven´t been that successful.

I usually make a ridiculously detailed list of all tasks. ¨Add button A on screen. Discuss details: 2 hours. Interface work: 0.5 hour. Code work: 2 hours. Database work: 2 hours. Testing: 2 hours. FAT: 2 hours. Changes after FAT: 1 hour. SAT: 2 hour. Test script: 1 hour. Update documentation: 2 hours. Add button B ... ¨ Put it all in an excel sheet and summarize. Most PMs don´t even want to start arguing a list like that, and it seems to make a reasonably good estimate for me.

If it involves an issue you can't just Google, it's something AI can't do.

To be fair, tariffs can be implemented in a clean surgical way or start tiny and slowly ramp up so everybody can adjust and anticipate. Tariffs can be used like a feather to tickle the market. Trump is using the whole chicken coup and throwing them in other people's faces.

They'll keep saying it's still a good idea butt just barely executed for years. That's what happened with Brexit in the UK.

A man is flying in a hot air balloon and realizes he is lost. He reduces height and spots a man down below. He lowers the balloon further and shouts: "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised my friend I would meet him half an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man below says: "Yes. You are in a hot air balloon, hovering approximately 30 feet above this field. You are between 40 and 42 degrees N. latitude, and between 58 and 60 degrees W. longitude."

"You must be an engineer," says the balloonist.

"I am," replies the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," says the balloonist, "everything you have told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to make of your information, and the fact is I am still lost.

"The man below says, "You must be a manager."

"I am," replies the balloonist, "but how did you know?"

"Well," says the man, "you don't know where you are, or where you are going. You have made a promise which you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. The fact is you are in the exact same position you were in before we met, but now it is somehow my fault."

Musk is the guy that says he wants to burn society to the ground and rebuild it better. Then he's shocked people are focusing on and strongly disliking the burning part. Also people have seen the cyber truck and the yearly promises to have self driving next year for sure and don't trust his rebuilding abilities.

He's still a hero in his own mind, thinking "Can't people see I'm trying to improve society? Sure, several million people might lose everything and maybe die, but you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. It's for the greater good!" Now he's shocked the few million people scheduled for demolition strongly disagree.

That's why Tesla's full self driving is officially still a level 2 cruise control. But of course they promise to jump directly to level 4 soon™.

Nah. What he wants is bossing others around and taking revenge on people and things that bothered him, or going after things he thinks give him an advantage. That's usually by bullying people until they give up and do what he wants. His voters like DEI? Bully and force things until it's stamped out. Justice convicted him, so break justice. Consequences for jobs and the economy, or even the law, don't matter to him.

Journalists called it the Great Grovel. Trump looked sternly at one university and they all collectively went on their knees with "Thy bidding m'lord" on their lips.

Every service you depend on is being cut, and wealth extraction of the middle class is going into high gear to make the upper class richer. No reason to feel safe.