In short, preparations for a large attack on Iran have been taking place at Hatserim airfield, involving loading Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (ALBM) onto at least six F-15I (Israeli version of the F-15E Strike Eagle) aircraft at the base, likely of type "Golden Horizon", but not certainly. A minimum of 56 ALBMs have been taken out of storage so far by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in total at all air bases. 40 of type "Rocks" and 16 of type "Golden Horizon". More on that later. ALBMs being taken out of storage and loaded onto aircraft was also spotted at Ramat David airfield and Ramon airfield.

Israel have also been spying on Iran, within Iran itself, using some sort of stealth UAV of type "RA-01", operating out of a hangar at Ramon airfield. More on that later.

Israel also conducted a large scale practice exercise for their attack on Iran, involving one AWACS aircraft and three aerial refueling aircraft. The AWACS and refueling force is of a similar size to that which was used to conduct long range strikes on Yemen during September. No word on the size of the fighter aircraft force component though.

Israeli air defense systems in Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 continue to be deployed, along with the Navy being deployed.

Lastly, Israel likely has deployed the nuclear armed Jericho II Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM) in a defensive position since October 1 2024, the date of Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attack. There is no indication that this is an offensive deployment or that they will be used in the upcoming Israeli attack. But this is as close as we'll get to the US acknowledging the Israeli nuclear arsenal, and shows that nuclear weapons are in play.

What's interesting from these leaked documents, is that they reveal the existence of two weapons systems of which there is no public information on. The Golden Horizon ALBM, and RA-01 stealth ISR UAV.

The RA-01, based on the size of the suspected hangars and intended role, could be a propeller powered flying wing design drone, similar to an RQ 170 but propeller powered. Other suggestions involve an ISR version of the Ibis HA10 High altitude long endurance concept drone, Public research paper here, with the wings fitted on after exiting the hangar as the wingspan would be too large for the hangars at Ramon. It would also explain the US spy report providing details about a technical crew needed to prepare the aircraft after take offs and landings. I'll attach an image below to illustrate this, and yes, it's the highest quality image available. This is really obscure territory here. This UAV concept was designed with stealth and a flight time of over 24 hours in mind, so it's a viable suggestion. The twitter account that initially suggested it also got deleted, which adds some sort of credibility to the theory I guess? It's concerning that Iranian air defences have not been able to detect or engage this UAV type.

As for what this could mean in an Israeli attack, we'll start with the ALBMs. The concept of this is familiar, the most well known ALBM is probably the Russian Kinzhal, an Iskander SRBM converted for an aerial launch. Israel have a similar weapon in the Air LORA, a LORA SRBM converted for aerial launch. The "ROCKS" ALBM is weapon that we do have public information on. It's a weapon with a range estimated to be between 250-300km which gives it stand off capabilities, uses a single Sparrow booster stage (the sparrow series are a series of ALBMs that Israel uses to test it's Arrow and David's Sling air defence systems, they are designed to imitate Iranian ballistic missiles), and uses GPS and inertial guidance, along with an electro optical seeker, or anti radiation seeker. A ROCKS ALBM with an anti radiation seeker was likely used to destroy an Iranian air defence radar that was part of a S300PMU2 missile battery during Israel's April attack. Drones were used to stimulate Iranian air defences into action, giving away their position for the anti radiation missile to home in on their radar. The fact that 40 of these missiles have been deployed is very concerning and could indicate Israeli intentions to carry out a wider scale Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD/DEAD) operation. This is a capability that Israel has already demonstrated against Iran, that Iran failed to stop last time round. We have also seen how effective this attack vector has been against US Patriot air defence systems in Ukraine, when Russia destroyed them with Kinzhals and Iskanders.

There is much speculation on what the "Golden Horizon" ALBM is as there is no public information on it, with many suggesting that it is the internal nsme for the Air LORA ALBM. I disagree, and think that it is likely a multi stage version of a Sparrow ALBM (in particular blue sparrow), readied for actual combat use. Imagery of such a weapon was posted by the IAF online a few weeks ago. It's still up on twitter actually. This would give this weapon a longer range in comparison to ROCKS, in violation of some of the missile treaties Israel publicly says that they follow, which is likely why it's been kept secret. These weapons would give Israel a great stand off capability with their long range, a range of around 2000km potentially. Israeli jets wouldn't even need to leave Israeli airspace to strike Iran. It was also theorised by some that Israel fired a few of these weapons with inert warheads during their strike on Iran in April.

What happens from here really depends on what Israel targets with their ALBMs. If they target Iran's above ground missile facilities, along with very limited strikes on air defence systems, I can see a potential road to de escalation, with Iran likely launching a limited drone or ballistic missile attack in response, similar to the April attack. If Israel carries out a large scale SEAD/DEAD campaign to open up the possibility for a further aerial campaign, and/or tries to strike Iran's underground missile or nuclear facilities, we could be on the verge of all out war. Such an attack would amount to a declaration of war, and Iran's response would likely make their October 1 attack look small in comparison. The resulting escalation ladder of such events could get really tall really quickly. I don't see Israel being able to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles over the medium to long term, which could lead to a US response if Israel is on the end of a large retaliatory strike.

The exercise of the right of self-defence cannot justify or be a defence to genocide

I should address the question of self-defence. In its Advisory Opinion in the Wall case the Court noted that the threat that Israel argued justified the construction of the Wall was not imputable to a foreign State, but emanated from territory –the Occupied Palestinian Territory – over which Israel itself exercises control. For those reasons the Court decided that as a matter of international law the right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter had no relevance in such circumstances.

Twenty days ago the Security Council affirmed yet again that Gaza is occupied territory. Though Israel refers to a complete withdrawal from Gaza, it has retained control over Gaza – over access by land, sea and air, and over key governmental functions and supplies of water and electricity. The tightness of its grip may have varied; but no-one can doubt the continuous reality of Israel’s grip on Gaza. The Court’s legal holding from 2004 remains good.

What is Israel is doing in Gaza, it is doing in territory under its own control. Its actions are enforcing its occupation. The law on self-defence under Article 51 of the Charter has no application. But that is not the main point.

The main point is much simpler. It is that no matter how outrageous or appalling an attack or provocation, genocide is never a permissible response. Every use of force, whether used in self-defence, or in enforcing an occupation, or in policing operations, must stay within the limits set by international law, including the explicit duty in Article I of the Convention to prevent genocide.

South Africa believes that the publicly-available evidence, of the scale of the destruction resulting from the bombardment of Gaza, and the deliberate restriction of the food, water, medicines and electricity available to the population of Gaza demonstrates that the Government of Israel – not Jewish people or Israeli citizens: the Government of Israel and its military – is intent on destroying the Palestinians in Gaza as a group, and is doing nothing to prevent or punish the actions of others who support that aim.

The point is not simply that Israel is acting ‘disproportionately’: the point is that the prohibition on genocide is an absolute, peremptory rule of law. Nothing can ever justify genocide. No matter what some individuals within the group of Palestinians in Gaza may have done, and no matter how great the threat to Israeli citizens might be, genocidal attacks on the whole of Gaza and the whole of its population with the intent of destroying them cannot be justified.

And no exception can be made in a provisional measures Order to allow a State to engage in actions that violate its obligations under the Genocide Convention. It is unthinkable that a court would ever do such a thing. That is the simple point in this case: genocide can never be justified in any circumstances.