[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 2 points 3 months ago

You mean a unified state? I interpreted the question as explicitly a Palestinian one, so assuming a 2 state solution. A unified state with constitutional protections may work too, although it would take a lot of trust that I don't think really exists right now. It may still happen though via simple amexation and naturalization by Israel. It's what happened with the Palestinians remaining in Israel after the 48 war hence about a 20% Palestinian Israeli population today.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 3 months ago

I'm happy to hear that I was helpful. I'm not any sort of expert, but a lot of this is basic state building. Add to that that the Palestinians actually have pretty high rates of education, already have access to a stable currency, and a regional power that they're already integrated with, they really have a leg up on most other countries starting out. The main sticking points are leadership, radicalization, and external forces like the IRGC backing terrorist groups.

As time goes on I really see this winding down one way or another in a couple decades. In 1948 basically the entire Arab world supported the Palestinians both directly and indirectly against Israel. Now Egypt and Jordan both have peace treaties and increasing economic ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia is coming onboard and the UAE and Bahrain already signed the Abraham accords. Palestinian maximalist goals look more and more unreasonable. Hamas hoped that their attack would trigger a whole regional war against Israel. It didn't, just IRGC proxies joined in. It didn't even put a stop to Saudi normalization, just delayed it a bit.

For the Israel side of it, there is more international pressure than ever to resolve this. The only hard dealbreaker IMO is keeping Hamas around in power. I just don't see any other way that has historically worked to remove a fascist regime than force. See the Whispered in Gaza series for what life is like under Hamas. Now we just need a good Palestinian leader to actually push building a positive future or Israel may just say screwed it, I'll do it myself, which would probably include annexation and citizenship.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

A couple points: Hamas doesn't just want back the land that was stolen during the Nakba. They consider all the land including state land and even privately purchased land by Jews from before the war to be Arab land. They reject wholesale any Jewish self determination in the land as illegitimate. This is why Israel is refusing to sign a deal that leaves them in power, because that just kicks the can down the road for a bit.

Hamas even put a plan together of what to do if they win and it boiled down to: murdering all the Zionists, enslaving key talent to prevent total economic collapse, and then throw the rest out. Since they are a totalitarian fascist regime, I don't see how they can ever be negotiated with in good faith. I'm not aware of a single fascist regime that peacefully democratized or even stopped committing violence.

I don't agree that Netanyahu is genocidal. His general strategy seems to be crushing opposition through tactical maneuvering both internal and external. I also don't expect him to be very politically relevant once his fragile coalition falls apart or regularly scheduled elections happen in 2026. According to John Spencer and other urban warfare experts the civilian casualties are impressively low considering the environment and Hamas's tactics. That's not to be dismissive as all civilian casualties are tragic and should be avoided as much as possible. Also about 20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian.

I would love to see a reasonable 2 state solution that everyone hates, but can live with. I don't think that this Israeli government coalition would be willing to accept one, but I have pretty good hopes for future ones. My main concern is on the Palestinian side, there doesn't seem to be anyone that would both be able to afford to make a deal and be able to enforce it. The closest chance there was historically would probably have been the Camp David Summit. Currently Abbas and the PA are seen as too weak and corrupt IMO for the general Palestinian population to support it even if they did accept.

I don't see how any US president would be able to unilaterally force a 2 state solution. The US does provide a lot of support, but I don't see how leveraging that would be enough to override Israeli security concerns. The unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 is what enabled Hamas to take over and declare war on Israel leading eventually to the current situation. Allowing that kind of buildup in the West Bank would be far more dangerous as is is much closer to major population centers and has a much larger boarder. Israel didn't have major US support until the Yom Kippur war.

On top of that, there is the whole IRGC issue. They don't want any solution. They're happy to arm proxy groups that are willing to support their agenda. That makes any peaceful Palestinian government that's trying to suppress internal terrorist groups have even more to deal with and it would probably end up in a Syrian or Yemen civil war situation which would be way worse for everyone, especially the Palestinians.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 8 months ago

As a general rule, the latest one. As much as it can be hard to see, life on average has been improving. Why would I want to go back in time where medicine was worse? Or we were covering everything with asbestos, or whatever was going on at that time. The only metric that I can think of that has been getting continually worse is the climate situation. Humans are pretty awesome though and I expect that we will be able to mitigate the worst parts for us. Note: That doesn't mean that we shouldn't be actively trying to stop it.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 0 points 8 months ago

Something something lttstore.com something something.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 1 year ago

Have you looked into Solus at all? They are rolling and build with a focus on desktop usage.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 1 year ago

If you just want contacts, there are a bunch of free Nextcloud services.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 1 year ago

They both have the same signing keys. The F-Droid repo uses the F-Droid signing keys unless the build is reproducible.

[-] arirr@lemmy.kde.social 1 points 1 year ago

Uh, she told me that she and her family used Linux first...

view more: ‹ prev next ›

arirr

joined 1 year ago