I can see it now. Trump calls in gravy team 6 to break him out, they kill a ton of cops in a firefight while rescuing him, once back at the white house he drone strikes the judge and prosecutor responsible and he spends the next couple years vindictively attacking Democrats and their prosecutors and dismantling the justice department while battering the hell out of NY with federal antagonism that's not really legal further pushing the idea of a breakup of the states into the mainstream. Democrats promise to jail him after he leaves office but he dies days before the election after finishing a Big Mac for dinner and Vance issues a sweeping pardon for Trump's family and associates for all activities to which Democrats tut tut but have to respect the institutions and so go on to face-plant in the next election as well despite it being "the most important election of our lives".

Well I should point out I could easily see between high hundreds of thousands and over a million Trump people simply dying because A) a lot of them are old B) Covid which they deny and had 4 years to die from it.

I could also see a million or so being disillusioned with Trump, either Q people who thought he'd do different or people who saw something else in him that he didn't live up in his new campaigning. Also a lot easier to just check the box to re-elect the president for a certain amount of Americans who may not even be consistent Republicans but just people who thought he did a good enough job giving them free money during Covid and deserved to continue. So those numbers are if anything low and suggest IMO he probably gained some voters as well between losing people to dying and disillusionment and such.

So then the discussion must go towards those Democratic voters, they must have really alienated them, they must have really lost the enthusiasm and angered them. Sure we can discount a couple million as racists who voted for Biden because he was a white man with ties to anti-busing and crime legislation and KKK leadership but not nearly all of them. There's still a significant chunk, millions and millions you have to account for.

Nah. Lots of liberals like using words like imperialism and will call Russia imperialist. There's a liberal anti-warism that's for Ukraine, for Palestine but also regularly duped into supporting color revolutions like Hong Kong and calling Chinese efforts to prevent color revolutions "imperialism" because they live in this moment to moment vacuum devoid of historical context or understanding of material and historical forces.

Reminder:

Are we comfortable asking farmers on another continent to sacrifice their livelihoods for the sake of other nations’ unwillingness to reduce CO2 emissions? Should we be comfortable with that? Who even is "we" here?

Would we go to war to stop this from happening? Would we go to war to make this happen, should we decide it’s in our national interest? Either way, the implications are deeply troubling.

I truthfully believe this is part of a kind of hybrid warfare against China by the US and if the modeling shows it will devastate them while hurting the US significantly less then they'll go ahead with it. The resulting famines and other issues are ripe for exploiting to overthrow the CPC or at the very least seriously injure their aspirations for surpassing the US and hobble them and set them back by a decade or more. The US is also the one most likely to believe that China won't use nukes to prevent this kind of a plan and to be willing to gamble even if they're unsure as it has a chance of ensuring another century of hegemony in their minds. Climate change in general I believe has largely been allowed to continue not just because of capitalist interests but because the models show the US will be among the most resilient to it, it represents an incredibly powerful form of hybrid warfare to wage on and destabilize the rest of humanity to allow US hegemony to continue. Your mentioning that a single actor could do this also worries me. The US would love the plausible deniability angle of using a US corporation to do this and when China threatens them they claim "wasn't us, hey you can't nuke us for the actions of one of our companies without our knowledge".

Suddenly, all that warming that they've been masking is back, only instead of seeing 4+ degrees warming spread over a century, we see it spread over 24-36 months.

I assume as do many others you mean if this were started and continued for decades, those at the end of that line would have no choice. Not that if this were started and allowed to run for say 6 years that we couldn't stop it and we'd only reap the normal amount of warming we'd have gotten anyways (not 4 degrees C over that limited span) though which could still be bad as the change in temperatures would be harmful to various ecosystems I'd imagine and the stress of going from warm to cool to even warmer again could be devastating to a lot of things.

They may see with the US risking getting into a war with Russia and wanting a war with China that their own time to pull the US into a conflict to settle the region's problems in their favor using the might of the US is quickly drawing to a close and will likely not exist in a few years so why let a crisis go to waste when they can try and get the US to take out Iran and Hezbollah for them which would allow greater "isreal" to become a reality. It's an expansionist mindset too. Also fascists gonna fascist.

Here we go. Now did they have an ounce of sense and just pound the desert and a few unimportant places and claim otherwise in their propaganda so Iran has an out not to retaliate in kind? Or more likely did these deranged zionists hit important things and Iran has to hit back even harder and kill US troop scum manning their air defenses as well? At which point the US can either leave with its tail between its legs like Reagan did Lebanon in the 80s or escalate in some way including potentially war.

I hope the people of Iran remain safe regardless of outcome. I hope the colonizers of the zionist occupation continue to feel and be very unsafe as they should be until they stop their genocide and dismantle their apartheid regime.

Wow great read and some nice hopium!

I like this:

And America itself can't even show up, they're actually in the middle of a long retreat from the world, furiously throwing proxies in front of themselves and resorting to open terrorism.

It conjures up images of an old American style cartoon character whipping out things to put in front of them as they hastily backpedal.

I would guess it's probably private Russian companies that sold access to the data to anyone including Iranians or Russians sympathetic to the movement who passed it to Iranians and that is being spun as part of the anti-Russia hysteria as the Russian military itself giving such data directly to Iran. It's possible they did that, based as fuck if they did of course but I have serious doubts the Russians were burning bridges with the zionist regime that early given their attempts to maintain ties with anyone not directly part of NATO.

That's not happening. This is meaningless talk.

They're still withholding the machines and maintenance to the top end processes from China on national security grounds. They've already committed economic suicide. Germany is blaming Ukraine for the Nordstream attacks.

They lost their chance for independence this decade with the blowing up of Nordstream and when they all jumped onboard with anti-Russia sanctions and supplying weapons. The US has an interest in keeping the war in Ukraine burning or ending in a Korea type situation without a clear winner to keep Europe off Russian gas and reliant on US gas. Meanwhile the US poaches their talent, empties their industry into its pockets (some goes to China but that's the way the cookie crumbles), and so on.

The idea of an independent Europe is laughable, it was happening but in too weak a way to ever succeed and the us sabotaged it easily and will again. After Ukraine the US is going to use Taiwan as an issue, there will be a big thing about it declaring independence, Europe will of course have to "stand with European values and democracy" and antagonize China and commit more economic suicide in decoupling from China to abide by US suggested sanctions, and so on. Europe is cooked. They're going to go to the hard right parties after that happens since the left is not allowed at which point they'll either start doing imperialism with the US while brutalizing migrants or they might actually take a more skeptical stance against the US and adopt a more mercenary position under the banner of white supremacy and reaction. Either way I'm sorry to say I don't see socialism in Europe this decade or probably even the 2030s.

And they have an advantage in that they own the biggest global media production and distribution houses. They can just pay some Hollywood producer a few million to insert some anti-China lines or propaganda in random movies or TV shows and it goes global just like that (though it's usually a bit more complex and would involve wining and dining various people via think-tanks paid to to do this and sharing talking points with them). And China has no real power to push back on that outside its borders and given its foreign policy of non-interference they couldn't if they wanted to without doing a dramatic change there.

Compare to the US reaction if China tried shopping around a TV series or show that had some minor anti-US and pro-China sentiment? US and aligned media across Asia would light up screaming about it being China propaganda, about how it has to be censored, about how weak any given country will be if they allow it to be shown and stirring up a shit-storm over it. So the US is definitely able to actually make use of their dollars here and get good value. China by comparison can spend as much as they want on shoving propaganda into products, the US will handily get a large chunk of it censored or subject to boycott.

People need make no mistake. This will go to think-tanks who will produce slander which is picked up by western and non-western news and ran near verbatim as stories. They will create chains of citations and credibility in academia and in the NGO world about China being up to no good. This will filter into western and non-western media, public consciousness, etc. It will likely end up nearly as complete as the propaganda about the USSR was for Americans and the western world. Just like indoctrinated Americans who can go to the DPRK and see what they want to see instead of the reality, even travel will not dispel this for many and at that point the task is simply to make it impossible to challenge their narrative, for any westerner who speaks truth to be cast as mad, as a bot, as a propagandist, as indoctrinated by China, as fooled by potemkin villages, as gullible, naive fools.

And that's just the west, their real goal is to propagandize to Africans, to people in Asia, to potential partners of China, to undermine the material goods Chinese projects do with suspicion, lies, and fantasy about what it's all /really/ about to create space for the US to drive a wedge and to operate, to create terrorists and coups with some amount of popular support to remove China-friendly governments and replace them with US friendly puppets. Such is the problem of short human lives. Though the older generations may remember and know of what the colonizers did, the young may buy the "that was the old us but we've changed" routine the US has so perfected. And without class consciousness this can work.

This is what idealism does to you.

Hmm today we will openly, defiantly, and unambiguously break the law.

Hmm we've gotten a legal demand to stop and a lawsuit, they say if we stop, apologize and promise never to do it again they'll settle for a pittance but we are taking a moral stand here and believe our moral philosophical arguments hold more weight than the law as written that clearly places us unambiguously in violation of the law.

Court proceeds to ignore their philosophical arguments and enforce bourgeois law as written

This was beyond obvious as the outcome. Bourgeois courts don't serve some public interest.

So instead now we stand to lose an invaluable, irreplaceable archive of not just the internet over decades of time but also rare media such as movies, TV shows, music videos, and much more all also archived with them. And for what? Because someone couldn't back down and thought that courts in the US served the common interest instead of the wealthy. Because someone forgot the golden rule of piracy and breaking IP laws and that's keep quiet about it.