People said they wouldn't last 6 months here at the start. Then Ukraine wouldn't last a year, then not two years. Then repeated assurances a new Russian offensive was coming in 2024, then 2025 that would collapse the front and Ukraine would have to surrender. People have been saying Ukraine would run out of man-power for years so excuse me if I don't believe it. There are shortages sure but this is a new age of warfare using drones operated by women in apartments in Kiev and the far west of the country which make it hard to advance so even if a Ukrainian position has only half its compliment of men it doesn't matter because the Russians are pinned by drones that will assassinate them without notice and few counters.
Truth is the lines are not moving much, Russian gains are slow and mostly empty area or small hamlets. Constant drone attacks have made troop movements very slow, very cautious on both sides and the Russians don't really have a comprehensive counter that enables them to get out of this trench warfare and either really break Ukrainian lines by killing enough of them and/or safely advance their own forces at any meaningfully significant pace.
There's no sign that Ukraine's lines will collapse. If anything they've adapted to Russian tactics that led to devastating early losses and are only getting stronger technologically and on tactics. At this rate of gain it will take Russia years more just to free the oblasts they legally claim and incorporated as Russian territory to say nothing of how they're going to move beyond that to forcing Ukraine to surrender by doing something like taking most of it industry, putting Kiev at threat, cutting them off from the black sea entirely, etc.
Ukraine isn't winning but they're not going to collapse and give Russia what they want anytime soon either. If the war ends soon it isn't because Ukraine lost or Russia won decisively on the battlefield its because Ukraine's backers decided to re-allocate too many resources elsewhere and told them to throw in the towel in doing so.
It isn't intended to be temporary. It's intended to be permanent via Chevron. The capital flight and de-industrialization of Europe has already begun. The question becomes really if they can make China unattractive and noncompetitive to force de-industrialization and capital flight to the US. They can at the least with this plan put a really big hurt on China and make them reliant on the dollar and maintaining its hegemony which means US hegemony which also means the B&R fails which means the US succeeds in enslaving most of the planet and China's attempts to free them fail which ultimately if not interrupted at some point in this process leaves China a mere regional power totally under the economic power of the US in a world also controlled by the US.
In other words China and Russia but China especially need to be strident and prepare for combat on the high seas against this pirate empire. The US won't go down easy. If this video is to be believed they have no intent of retreating to the Americas as many here like to speculate rather they may cede air power and all their air bases for a handful much more defensible and important naval bases and choke points across the globe and attempt to maintain power via a navy.
This is also why Trump's plan for building American ships by imposing fees on any ships coming to the US that aren't US made shouldn't be scoffed at right now as transitioning from an air power to a naval power would require increased shipbuilding capacity which would be helped by opening new naval yards, expanding existing ones via commercial orders. However, even if that should fail the US has enough ship-building capacity as well as established ports around the world to fairly effectively carry out this strategy.
Navies are not easy to disable no. Compared to air forces that sit on tarmacs fairly static ships are constantly moving so a lot harder to find, target, and destroy than air forces that can't be in the air all the time. Additionally these carrier groups carry anti-sub equipment, travel with attack subs, and have aegis anti-missile defenses on them.
It's not impossible if China wants to war with the US for them to attack them and start destroying them but two things: 1) China doesn't want to fight the US, has resisted any military action against them because the US is run by mad-men with nukes who are seething at Christianity losing, white supremacy losing (but I repeat myself), and capitalism losing and China also does a lot of business with the US and while the US might take a lot of slaps from China they'll probably cut off trade and crash the Chinese economy if China goes to war with them. 2) China does not have a deep water navy. They lack the ability to project power like the US does. They don't have logistics chains for projecting power like the US does. They don't have all these colonial hold-over ports and different fleets all over the world supported with air power resupply. Ultimately the US could carry out their piracy just with subs so developing ultra-long-range missiles for taking out carrier groups while firing from China and evading their interceptor defenses won't be enough to stop the US because the US can continue to carry out this strategy with subs. Thus China requires a deep water navy capable of sub hunting in vast stretches of multiple oceans around the world. This will take time to build, take time to figure out logistics for because they don't have land bases to resupply from anywhere in the world at this point so it would be more expensive and intensive on them. This gives the US probably another decade of dominance at least during which they can do a lot.
If China strikes now, dissuades the US they might be able to prevent this strategy from fully unfurling and the US might indeed flinch this early on. However if the plan progresses, Europe de-industrializes and the US somewhat reindustrializes or at least "friend-shores" the industry to say Latin America, Asian lapdogs, etc then the US will become progressively less likely to flinch. Problem is China's navy at the moment isn't really ready for a full confrontation with the US that rages far from the SCS (US has been very careful in this plan to have its choke points and blockade points far from the SCS).