i found an article mentioning thermobaric Shaheds from December 2023. The source is pretty mediocre. i also found this article from yesterday, which has some good technical information. Apparently, the factory that makes this particular warhead was hacked, so there’s a lot of information about what it can do.

In war reporting, i think thermobaric explosions or fuel-air explosions are often brought up to sound bad. It brings to mind terrorism and a cruel-seeming death. When the USA uses them though, they are precision weapons on account of the fact that a rapidly expanding explosion is more devastating to bunkers and fortifications than open air (it still obliterates things in the open air). As Russia moves through the last defensive lines from before 2022, i would expect them to use and need fewer anti-fortification strike tools.

43% of the votes have been counted. That 53% ‘no’ vote represents about 23% of the total expected votes. Broadly speaking, the first votes counted are from small and rural areas, and the last votes counted are from mail-in and urban areas. The first group tends to lean conservative, and the last tends to lean liberal or progressive or whatever. California is frequently pretty dogshit politically, but we aren’t going to know any results until like tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. People are happy to call it for Harris because it’s California, but for actually competitive issues it takes hours if not days. Something like 30% of votes were mail-in this year, and they couldn’t legally open those until the physical polls were closed.

Drop Site News also reports that the leaks show the USA acknowledges the existence of “israeli” nuclear missiles. The second image, bottom left corner, says that they think such missiles are not being considered, for whatever it’s worth

Chevron has been developing a methodology for pushing back on attempts to regulate it. In 2022, they (and Aera, another oil company) spent $8 million to defeat a county measure. Ventura County has roughly 500,000 registered voters (for roughly 850,000 residents). That is, generously assuming that all those people voted, oil companies spent $16 per voter and achieved the desired result. Compare that to the cost of having to rip out and replace on shore and off shore oil rigs in order to comply with environmental regulations.

Their main innovation in methods for dealing with voters is relentless test messaging. They did not use the mass texts and form letters ‘from’ the candidate or the party, as we see even the current presidential candidate do. Instead, they made up five characters, hypothetical locals who would have their jobs and bills impacted negatively. i think most residents ended up getting messages ‘from’ two or three of them. To someone used to political texts or following events, not much of a change. But to someone used to skimming over or ignoring a form letter that’s way too long for a text message, there was a tighter emotional core. Go marketing! They also tried a nonsense television campaign about foreign oil leading to higher electricity prices (that’s not how California makes power).

i don’t know what Chevron might do differently for influencing assembly people, but the last time they tried to influence the law they got exactly what they wanted and didn’t get punished. Probably comes down to whether Caesar Newsom wants it or not. God help us all

the russians did not deploy enough troops to ever seize or siege a large population center in northern Ukraine. back of the envelope occupation math suggests 1 soldier for every 1000 civilians. the russians did not deploy that many troops on the entire Ukrainian front. big serge (my milblog goat) goes into more detail here

i’m not a morocco expert, but that article reminded me of an article naked capitalism posted earlier this month. phosphate mining is critically important as a material industry for morocco. morocco has been engaged in ongoing warfare with and colonization of the western sahara and the sahrawi since 1975. the current king of morocco is the son of the king that started the invasions of the western sahara. one policy of USamerica during “competition” with china for critical resources is securing friendly governments over resources, like the bolivian coup. while that ultimately did not work in bolivia, the broad policy of authoritarian but compliant governments controlling resources is a US trick as old as time.

phosphate will always be relevant for mining and export for fertilizer. what’s interesting to me as armchair people’s secretary for electrification is how much longer phosphate will be relevant in modern batteries. lithium iron phosphate batteries are advantageous, especially for vehicle and utility applications, because iron and phosphate are cheap/ relatively abundant. lithium is not and never will be. there are a number of promising alternatives, both at an academic research level and in different manufacturers’ test cars. as soon as it is industrially viable to switch to nickel batteries or one of the more esoteric other options, everyone will do so. when that happens, the idea of phosphate as a critical material might no longer hold water. i’m sure morocco will be happy anyways to take land they’ve been after for fifty years, but it seems like if that happens it would sour relations with algeria. i’m sure one of our comrades from algeria could say much more about that.

the oldest possible zoomer was roughly 10 for ‘Hope’ round 1. some people have to touch the stove before they know it’s hot. the optimistic takeaway is that there are a lot more leftist resources compared to 15 years ago for them to turn to when kopmala doesn’t actually make policy based on taco jokes

the utilities are squeezing people while they’re still allowed to. after the camp fire (the one that the power company caused and then killed 90 people a few years back in northern california), the state legislature has passed several laws about power companies and wildfires. one of them mandates that utilities offer a flat rate based on income, with the highest tier being $85 a month for households that make more than $180,000 a year. for pretty much everyone, even people with full solar, this will mean the power bill goes down. the plan is still moving through bureaucracy, and it’s scheduled to start in early 2025 (fingers crossed). so long as our power and gas come from organizations with executive boards and benefits packages, they’re going to rip the copper wire out of the wall until their business model collapses.

i agree with your position on deng and the current ‘frog boiling’. i think a major factor that will determine how that happens is china’s entanglement with the USamerican economy. while china is reducing its ownership of us debt, it still owns a lot. this means they are deeply invested in the US’ ability to make interest payments. the US can never stop servicing that debt, or else everyone in the world would panic and drop everything connected to the dollar. aadditionally, my understanding of china’s central banking policy is that they cannot force a financial economy to develop, so until that happens organically they are reliant on the west. the financial options the west offers are everything from bonds and other securities designed to absorb excess cash and return a profit to unique corporate structures that allow companies to headquarter different branches in different countries for maximum benefit. that’s the one hand.

on the other, it’s been more than ten years since the tpp and obama’s pivot to asia. in the eye of some warhawks, just as soon as the US can get out of SWANA, they’re going to be right at war in the indo-pacific. if the US continues its hot and cold attitude, then i’d guess china will maintain its current pace of reforms. if the US is humiliated in some major way, then Xi might be able to pull out the big red button at will. i don’t see a path to real aggression against china, but i think major surface fleets are defunct and that china has an overwhelming material edge in a conflict with the US that lasts longer than four days. those in charge of the boats and planes are cut from a different cloth, so they might try and do it. i think the two types of “war” against china that are on the table are either jumping from a broader middle eastern conflict to cut off oil shipments through the persian gulf and the strait of malacca, or boosting the phillipines into a south china sea provocation that calls in the whole regional gang. in the event that we are not all burned away in nuclear fire or its consequences, this ‘proxy’ war could allow china to nationalize industry for the war effort.

no matter what, i think the current pace of reforms is irreversible. there are changes in the world that could cause an acceleration of the reforms, but i can’t imagine how they’d be reversed. the material conditions of people in the urban areas of china that i know are getting to the be the best capitalism can give to a society. if capitalist development is no longer benefiting the people in china, then the communist party will phase them out. the fact the USamerican empire is sprawling outwards in a deathspasm at the same time is either happy coincidence or further proof of the immortal science.

the recent NATO summit asserted that Ukrainian membership was inevitable. i believe they added the caveat that they would only get in once they were not under threat. while he is a problematic favorite, i think simplicius has rightly articulated that putin wants a brand new/ re-defined security architecture, in europe if not the world, in order to get peace in the Ukraine. the west has lied too many times for anything else. so there can’t be a real peace with the current version of NATO policy.

i think it turns on who is it that you think is speaking there when NATO says ukrainian membership is inevitable. if it’s Joe Biden/ Bidenist Americans, then he’s toast in 6 months, and you can keep up the current level of pressure on the hopes of a better negotiation with a new president (winner doesn’t really matter). if it’s the European Council or NATO/ US military speaking here, then either they or their public facing statements are delusional, and russia has every incentive to maintain the slow and steady screw turning until they realize. never interrupt your enemy while making a mistake and all that.

i agree that your description is the inevitable outcome of the actual war in ukraine, but you and i have known most of that since 2022. i think the slow war/ fast war thing has an impact on how involved NATO is in the conflict, not the actual military result against the UA. if you go too fast, then NATO goes nuclear (bad) or sees it as a lost cause and stops sending free equipment to burn (bad). i’d be happy to be proven wrong by either someone else or reality, but i don’t see any benefit to accelerating the war. more dead russians, minimal change in western posture (they’ve been rattling sabres at defcon 1 for 2.5 years), and possible nuclear conflict in exchange for potentially fewer dead ukrainians is not a good deal, cruel as it might be.

i’m happy to be corrected on this, but my understanding is that the key role of the war cabinet was a consensus builder. netanyahu and the opposition leaders, including gantz, were all in the room making decisions together, because the war transcended the political divide or whatever. the opposition is not opposed to genocide, so this will not affect anything ongoing with the military. the opposition decided that for whatever reasons, netanyahu is running the war poorly and has no plan for victory. someone in the news mega a few days ago said that gantz is just so excited for the CIA to pick him as the leader of a color revolution in “israel”. internal “israeli” politics have been operating in a coalition, but now the main opposition has pulled out and performatively submitted a bill for dissolving parliament/ fresh elections. i say performative because they lack a majority or alternative coalition to likud, so the bill has no chance. the contradictions of Zionist civil society are heightening, but this is another brick in the wall instead of any sort of inflection point

i think if anything graham’s comments give us some insight into different factions within the US mono-party. vicky nuland spent a decade trying to make this war happen out of sheer love of the game (belief in the necessity and possibility of beating russia on the battlefield). when she got replaced, but the war didn’t end, it’s obvious there’s at least one other school of thought in the democrat camp. looks like some republicans are also interested in ukraine, even though the two parties just pretended to fight about war aid. the mineral resources in question are predominantly coal and natural gas, and both chevron and shell were on track to begin exploitation before the SMO. it’s not so much saying the quiet part out loud, but saying one of several. the US famously feels no obligation to discuss its intentions, and also famously has a dozen different groups trying to grab the policy lever. so it says something about what a shit show ukraine is that not only is the squabbling open to the public, two different interest groups have had to put their cards out on the table. obviously admitting stuff won’t change anything, but i think it’s a source of some optimism that the US war and foreign policy machines are running less and less smoothly