cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9156148

Archived version

Here is the full study: China's mercantilist squeeze on developing countries (pdf)

• The "China Squeeze" affects low- and middle-income countries through three major channels: intense competition in global export markets, rising Chinese import competition in their own domestic markets, and limited access to China’s own consumer market for low-skill-intensive exports from developing countries.
• The scale of the squeeze is historically unprecedented and may represent hundreds of billions of dollars in lost exports and forgone jobs in labor-intensive manufacturing in developing countries.
• Macro indicators on wages, productivity, and exchange rate policy suggest that distortions, especially an undervalued renminbi, may have played a role. Regardless of the cause, China’s dominance may be closing off the traditional manufacturing-led development path for low- and middle-income countries.

...

China’s resurgent trade surplus has revived concern in the United States and Europe, but consequences for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain underappreciated.

This paper documents a “China Squeeze”: China’s compression of the industrialization space poorer economies need in labor-intensive manufacturing.

Using historical benchmarks and labor-endowment comparisons, we show that China, despite becoming richer and moving up the technology ladder, still commands a historically unusual share of global low-skilled manufacturing export markets. We estimate that this squeeze costs LMICs hundreds of billions of dollars in forgone exports.

It also operates through rising Chinese import competition in LMIC markets and China’s limited absorption of low-skilled imports from poorer countries. Macro evidence suggests that policy distortions, including exchange rate undervaluation, may have amplified the squeeze.

The central concern is developmental: China’s export strength may close off pathways to industrialization for poorer economies.

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9156148

Archived version

Here is the full study: China's mercantilist squeeze on developing countries (pdf)

• The "China Squeeze" affects low- and middle-income countries through three major channels: intense competition in global export markets, rising Chinese import competition in their own domestic markets, and limited access to China’s own consumer market for low-skill-intensive exports from developing countries.
• The scale of the squeeze is historically unprecedented and may represent hundreds of billions of dollars in lost exports and forgone jobs in labor-intensive manufacturing in developing countries.
• Macro indicators on wages, productivity, and exchange rate policy suggest that distortions, especially an undervalued renminbi, may have played a role. Regardless of the cause, China’s dominance may be closing off the traditional manufacturing-led development path for low- and middle-income countries.

...

China’s resurgent trade surplus has revived concern in the United States and Europe, but consequences for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain underappreciated.

This paper documents a “China Squeeze”: China’s compression of the industrialization space poorer economies need in labor-intensive manufacturing.

Using historical benchmarks and labor-endowment comparisons, we show that China, despite becoming richer and moving up the technology ladder, still commands a historically unusual share of global low-skilled manufacturing export markets. We estimate that this squeeze costs LMICs hundreds of billions of dollars in forgone exports.

It also operates through rising Chinese import competition in LMIC markets and China’s limited absorption of low-skilled imports from poorer countries. Macro evidence suggests that policy distortions, including exchange rate undervaluation, may have amplified the squeeze.

The central concern is developmental: China’s export strength may close off pathways to industrialization for poorer economies.

...

Archived version

Here is the full study: China's mercantilist squeeze on developing countries (pdf)

• The "China Squeeze" affects low- and middle-income countries through three major channels: intense competition in global export markets, rising Chinese import competition in their own domestic markets, and limited access to China’s own consumer market for low-skill-intensive exports from developing countries.
• The scale of the squeeze is historically unprecedented and may represent hundreds of billions of dollars in lost exports and forgone jobs in labor-intensive manufacturing in developing countries.
• Macro indicators on wages, productivity, and exchange rate policy suggest that distortions, especially an undervalued renminbi, may have played a role. Regardless of the cause, China’s dominance may be closing off the traditional manufacturing-led development path for low- and middle-income countries.

...

China’s resurgent trade surplus has revived concern in the United States and Europe, but consequences for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain underappreciated.

This paper documents a “China Squeeze”: China’s compression of the industrialization space poorer economies need in labor-intensive manufacturing.

Using historical benchmarks and labor-endowment comparisons, we show that China, despite becoming richer and moving up the technology ladder, still commands a historically unusual share of global low-skilled manufacturing export markets. We estimate that this squeeze costs LMICs hundreds of billions of dollars in forgone exports.

It also operates through rising Chinese import competition in LMIC markets and China’s limited absorption of low-skilled imports from poorer countries. Macro evidence suggests that policy distortions, including exchange rate undervaluation, may have amplified the squeeze.

The central concern is developmental: China’s export strength may close off pathways to industrialization for poorer economies.

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9155198

Archived version

A paper signed by Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Lithuania landed in Brussels demanding a far tougher trade regime against China — faster emergency tariffs, broader safeguards and new anti-circumvention powers — days before a make-or-break Commission debate on 29 May.

The five want the bloc to confront what they call “systemic and structural industrial overcapacity,” the diplomatic shorthand for Beijing flooding world markets with subsidised goods. The signatories are not fringe voices. They are among the largest economies in the union, and their patience has run out.

...

The timing is driven by a number that keeps getting worse. China ran a $113 billion trade surplus with the EU in just the first four months of 2026, up from $91 billion a year earlier. Europe’s full-year deficit with China hit nearly €360 billion in 2025. The political question on 29 May is no longer whether to act, but how hard — and whether Europe can hit back without triggering the retaliation Beijing is already promising.

...

The paper sets out a concrete escalation of Europe’s trade toolkit. It calls for faster emergency tariffs, so Brussels can move in weeks rather than the months its current investigations take. It wants broader safeguards to shield strategic industries, and crucially, new anti-circumvention powers — measures to stop Chinese producers dodging existing tariffs by routing goods through third countries or shifting final assembly offshore.

...

The fight spans almost every sector Europe still makes things in. Steel, chemicals and electric vehicles are the obvious flashpoints, but the front has widened. Brussels is moving to phase Huawei and ZTE out of telecoms and solar infrastructure over three years, and is weighing a rule forcing EU firms to source critical components from at least three suppliers — a direct attempt to break single-point dependence on Chinese parts.

Then there is the consumer flood. The EU is trying to bring forward a handling fee on the billions of cheap parcels shipped from Shein, Temu and Alibaba — accelerating it by more than two years to protect domestic retailers. Every layer, from heavy industry to the package on your doorstep, is now contested ground.

...

The era of treating China as simply a large customer is over. What replaces it will be decided, in part, on 29 May — and Europe’s biggest economies have just made clear which way they want it to go.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9155198

Archived version

A paper signed by Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Lithuania landed in Brussels demanding a far tougher trade regime against China — faster emergency tariffs, broader safeguards and new anti-circumvention powers — days before a make-or-break Commission debate on 29 May.

The five want the bloc to confront what they call “systemic and structural industrial overcapacity,” the diplomatic shorthand for Beijing flooding world markets with subsidised goods. The signatories are not fringe voices. They are among the largest economies in the union, and their patience has run out.

...

The timing is driven by a number that keeps getting worse. China ran a $113 billion trade surplus with the EU in just the first four months of 2026, up from $91 billion a year earlier. Europe’s full-year deficit with China hit nearly €360 billion in 2025. The political question on 29 May is no longer whether to act, but how hard — and whether Europe can hit back without triggering the retaliation Beijing is already promising.

...

The paper sets out a concrete escalation of Europe’s trade toolkit. It calls for faster emergency tariffs, so Brussels can move in weeks rather than the months its current investigations take. It wants broader safeguards to shield strategic industries, and crucially, new anti-circumvention powers — measures to stop Chinese producers dodging existing tariffs by routing goods through third countries or shifting final assembly offshore.

...

The fight spans almost every sector Europe still makes things in. Steel, chemicals and electric vehicles are the obvious flashpoints, but the front has widened. Brussels is moving to phase Huawei and ZTE out of telecoms and solar infrastructure over three years, and is weighing a rule forcing EU firms to source critical components from at least three suppliers — a direct attempt to break single-point dependence on Chinese parts.

Then there is the consumer flood. The EU is trying to bring forward a handling fee on the billions of cheap parcels shipped from Shein, Temu and Alibaba — accelerating it by more than two years to protect domestic retailers. Every layer, from heavy industry to the package on your doorstep, is now contested ground.

...

The era of treating China as simply a large customer is over. What replaces it will be decided, in part, on 29 May — and Europe’s biggest economies have just made clear which way they want it to go.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9075620

Archived version in Russian language

The following is an automated translation with minimal edits.

Putin completely stopped public trips in Russia due to attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, report says

After returning from China, Vladimir Putin did not visit any Russian region, although in past years such visits were the norm, according to the Moscow Times citing [the Russian independent media outlet] Agentstvo.

...

The pause in his movements around the country against the backdrop of more frequent attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine grew to 196 days - a record that exceeds even the Covid isolation (the previous record was set in 2020 - 132 days). The last time Putin traveled outside the regions with main residences was on November 6, 2025 - then he visited Samara on a one-day visit. Since then, all his public events have taken place only in Moscow, the Moscow region or St. Petersburg, the publication notes.

...

The main reason for the cessation of travel within the country is the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attempt to strike at Putin’s Valdai residence at the end of 2025, which was announced by the Russian authorities. At the same time, world leaders, including Donald Trump, then doubted the reliability of this information, but a Project source close to the Kremlin said that Putin was then seriously afraid for his life.

European intelligence services, in turn, are also recording unprecedented security measures around Putin. As CNN reported, citing a report from one of the special services, the Kremlin fears not only drone strikes, but also a military coup, the possible organizer of which is called Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu. Against this background, Putin’s security, according to intelligence data, has sharply reduced the list of places that he previously visited regularly, including residences in the Moscow region and Valdai.

According to Financial Times [FT] sources, Putin is now spending weeks in underground bunkers, and state media are publishing pre-recorded videos. Fears intensified after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the Americans and the Ukrainian Operation Web, when UAVs were launched from Russian territory at strategic airfields, FT interlocutors said.

...

[Edit to insert the un-archived link.]

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/9057152

Archived version

Neither Russia’s delegate banging her desk to interrupt Ukraine’s representative speaking at the World Health Assembly (WHA), nor her request to dismiss debate, stopped member states from condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s health system.

A report by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Director-General before delegates estimated that Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has caused 55,600 civilian casualties, including 14,999 deaths.

Violence intensified in 2025 with civilian casualties going up by 31% compared to the previous year, and by 70% when compared to 2023.

The WHO also documented 579 attacks on healthcare facilities that caused 19 deaths and 204 injuries among healthcare workers and patients in 2025. This was an 18% increase compared to 2024.

...

“Since this report was published, WHO has recorded 190 new attacks on health care, with 86 injuries and 15 deaths between 1 January and 6 May, 2026,” said Dr Altaf Mossani, Director of Humanitarian Disaster Management, WHO Emergency Preparedness and Response program.

“On May 14, a clearly marked United Nations vehicle was severely damaged by drone strikes in Kherson City. This is the second incident that week,” he added.

...

Countries raised alarm at the WHA that 202 of Ukraine’s 11,887 health facilities have been severely damaged, and 1,013 units are partially damaged.

Countries raised alarm at the WHA that 202 of Ukraine’s 11,887 health facilities have been severely damaged, and 1,013 units are partially damaged.

“We strongly condemn Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and the deliberate escalation of attacks targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, including health care facilities, and we are deeply alarmed by the sharp increase in attacks on the health infrastructure since the last World Health Assembly,” Moldova’s representative told the WHA.

...

Russia’s representative first moved to dismiss the debate on the report on Ukraine entirely. That request was put to a vote and defeated.

Following extensive discussion on the report, Russia again moved to stop the WHA from noting the report.

Russia was reminded that noting the report was merely procedural, but it requested a vote again. Once again, countries voted in favour of noting the report.

At one point, the Russian representative banged the desk several times to interrupt the Ukrainian speaker, and was reminded to raise the country’s flag if she wanted to make a statement.

...

Russia then accused the WHO of spreading misinformation.

...

Russia opposed the noting of the report by the WHA. The report was noted nevertheless, following a vote.

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/8998019

The declining industry is looking for ways to revive itself.

Archived version

Coal has been in decline in many countries for two decades [but now] the coal industry has been looking for new ways to revive coal. Their latest plan: gasification.

...

[In the United States], the Wabash Valley Resources coal-to-chemicals plant [in the state of Indiana] broke ground [planning] to produce 500,000 metric tons of blue ammonia. If built, it will be the first large-scale commercial coal gasification plant in the United States.

...

Other countries are attempting the same thing. In China, there are now numerous newly opened and planned coal-to-chemicals plants. Indonesia, the world’s top coal exporter, is also pushing forward on plans to build several new coal gasification plants. If these are built, they could have widespread negative climate, environmental, and social impacts and make it harder to reduce emissions in line with science-based climate targets.

...

“The main risk for any country considering this route is that it can create a high-carbon lock-in,” said Xinyi Shen, a researcher at the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “While coal conversion may reduce import dependence, it can worsen the climate problem and leave countries with carbon-intensive industrial assets that may become harder to justify economically.”

...

The United States, China, and Indonesia are among the largest coal-producing countries in the world. China has, nearly on its own, kept the global coal industry alive, more than making up for all the closures of coal-fired power plants in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, adding more capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024 and 2025. While there are hopes that the country’s increase of solar and wind could finally lead to a slowdown in new grid coal, gasification, like in the US, presents another path for coal interests.

...

Social concerns

For Indiana residents in the U.S., gasification is nothing new. Back during the George W. Bush administration, there was a plan for a $2.8 billion coal gasification plant in Rockport, Indiana, to produce a liquid fuel alternative to imported petroleum and natural gas. But the fracking and oil sands boom made that unnecessary. Despite millions spent on planning, the plant never broke ground and was canceled in 2013.

The Wabash includes many of the same environmental and social concerns as that project, Olson said.

“It will increase greenhouse gas emissions and be a significant threat to our water supplies and our water quality and public health through fugitive emissions,” said Olson,

...

In China, it's notable that many of the planned coal gasification projects are located in the far western region of Xinjiang, home to the Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim community.

“In recent years, particularly amid heightened energy security concerns, China has poured enormous resources into developing the coal gasification industry in the Uyghur region, especially because of the region’s abundant coal reserves,” said Peter Irwin, co-executive director at the nonprofit Network for Uyghur Rights.

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/8998019

The declining industry is looking for ways to revive itself.

Archived version

Coal has been in decline in many countries for two decades [but now] the coal industry has been looking for new ways to revive coal. Their latest plan: gasification.

...

[In the United States], the Wabash Valley Resources coal-to-chemicals plant [in the state of Indiana] broke ground [planning] to produce 500,000 metric tons of blue ammonia. If built, it will be the first large-scale commercial coal gasification plant in the United States.

...

Other countries are attempting the same thing. In China, there are now numerous newly opened and planned coal-to-chemicals plants. Indonesia, the world’s top coal exporter, is also pushing forward on plans to build several new coal gasification plants. If these are built, they could have widespread negative climate, environmental, and social impacts and make it harder to reduce emissions in line with science-based climate targets.

...

“The main risk for any country considering this route is that it can create a high-carbon lock-in,” said Xinyi Shen, a researcher at the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “While coal conversion may reduce import dependence, it can worsen the climate problem and leave countries with carbon-intensive industrial assets that may become harder to justify economically.”

...

The United States, China, and Indonesia are among the largest coal-producing countries in the world. China has, nearly on its own, kept the global coal industry alive, more than making up for all the closures of coal-fired power plants in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, adding more capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024 and 2025. While there are hopes that the country’s increase of solar and wind could finally lead to a slowdown in new grid coal, gasification, like in the US, presents another path for coal interests.

...

Social concerns

For Indiana residents in the U.S., gasification is nothing new. Back during the George W. Bush administration, there was a plan for a $2.8 billion coal gasification plant in Rockport, Indiana, to produce a liquid fuel alternative to imported petroleum and natural gas. But the fracking and oil sands boom made that unnecessary. Despite millions spent on planning, the plant never broke ground and was canceled in 2013.

The Wabash includes many of the same environmental and social concerns as that project, Olson said.

“It will increase greenhouse gas emissions and be a significant threat to our water supplies and our water quality and public health through fugitive emissions,” said Olson,

...

In China, it's notable that many of the planned coal gasification projects are located in the far western region of Xinjiang, home to the Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim community.

“In recent years, particularly amid heightened energy security concerns, China has poured enormous resources into developing the coal gasification industry in the Uyghur region, especially because of the region’s abundant coal reserves,” said Peter Irwin, co-executive director at the nonprofit Network for Uyghur Rights.

...

The declining industry is looking for ways to revive itself.

Archived version

Coal has been in decline in many countries for two decades [but now] the coal industry has been looking for new ways to revive coal. Their latest plan: gasification.

...

[In the United States], the Wabash Valley Resources coal-to-chemicals plant [in the state of Indiana] broke ground [planning] to produce 500,000 metric tons of blue ammonia. If built, it will be the first large-scale commercial coal gasification plant in the United States.

...

Other countries are attempting the same thing. In China, there are now numerous newly opened and planned coal-to-chemicals plants. Indonesia, the world’s top coal exporter, is also pushing forward on plans to build several new coal gasification plants. If these are built, they could have widespread negative climate, environmental, and social impacts and make it harder to reduce emissions in line with science-based climate targets.

...

“The main risk for any country considering this route is that it can create a high-carbon lock-in,” said Xinyi Shen, a researcher at the nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “While coal conversion may reduce import dependence, it can worsen the climate problem and leave countries with carbon-intensive industrial assets that may become harder to justify economically.”

...

The United States, China, and Indonesia are among the largest coal-producing countries in the world. China has, nearly on its own, kept the global coal industry alive, more than making up for all the closures of coal-fired power plants in the US, Europe, and elsewhere, adding more capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024 and 2025. While there are hopes that the country’s increase of solar and wind could finally lead to a slowdown in new grid coal, gasification, like in the US, presents another path for coal interests.

...

Social concerns

For Indiana residents in the U.S., gasification is nothing new. Back during the George W. Bush administration, there was a plan for a $2.8 billion coal gasification plant in Rockport, Indiana, to produce a liquid fuel alternative to imported petroleum and natural gas. But the fracking and oil sands boom made that unnecessary. Despite millions spent on planning, the plant never broke ground and was canceled in 2013.

The Wabash includes many of the same environmental and social concerns as that project, Olson said.

“It will increase greenhouse gas emissions and be a significant threat to our water supplies and our water quality and public health through fugitive emissions,” said Olson,

...

In China, it's notable that many of the planned coal gasification projects are located in the far western region of Xinjiang, home to the Uyghurs, a mostly Muslim community.

“In recent years, particularly amid heightened energy security concerns, China has poured enormous resources into developing the coal gasification industry in the Uyghur region, especially because of the region’s abundant coal reserves,” said Peter Irwin, co-executive director at the nonprofit Network for Uyghur Rights.

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/8976435

• Pollution from coal-fired power plants that blocks sunlight is significantly cutting global solar output, and potentially causing an overestimation of climate progress.

• Aerosols – tiny particles released from the burning of fossil fuels as well as natural sources like volcanoes – reduced global solar generation by 5.8 per cent in 2023, according to the study.

• In China, the world’s largest producer of solar power and coal, aerosols slashed photovoltaic output by 7.7 per cent, with scientists attributing nearly a third of the decline to coal-fired power plants. Aerosols also cut solar output in India, the US and Japan.

• "Given the slow pace of global coal phase-out, these results reveal a constraint on solar performance that, if unaccounted for, could lead to a systematic overestimation of the transition’s contribution to climate and air quality goals," the study concludes.

Here is the study: Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition (pdf)

Archived version

...

Between 2017 and 2023, new PV installations added an average of 246.6 TWh of electricity each year, while aerosol-related losses from existing systems reached 74.0 TWh annually - equivalent to nearly one-third of the gains from new capacity. This highlights a previously unrecognised interaction between fossil fuel use and renewable energy, where emissions from one system directly reduce the performance of the other.

...

This effect is particularly evident in China, where solar and coal capacity have expanded in parallel and are often co-located. Regions with high coal capacity aligned closely with areas experiencing the greatest solar PV losses.

...

China is the world’s largest solar producer, and generated 793.5 TWh of solar PV electricity in 2023 (41.5% of the global total). But it also experienced the largest losses from aerosols, with total output reduced by 7.7%. The researchers estimate that around 29% of aerosol-related solar PV losses in China come specifically from coal-fired power plants. Coal plants emit fine pollution particles that scatter and absorb sunlight, reducing the amount that reaches nearby solar panels. As a result, the panels generate less electricity than they otherwise could.

...

• Pollution from coal-fired power plants that blocks sunlight is significantly cutting global solar output, and potentially causing an overestimation of climate progress.

• Aerosols – tiny particles released from the burning of fossil fuels as well as natural sources like volcanoes – reduced global solar generation by 5.8 per cent in 2023, according to the study.

• In China, the world’s largest producer of solar power and coal, aerosols slashed photovoltaic output by 7.7 per cent, with scientists attributing nearly a third of the decline to coal-fired power plants. Aerosols also cut solar output in India, the US and Japan.

• "Given the slow pace of global coal phase-out, these results reveal a constraint on solar performance that, if unaccounted for, could lead to a systematic overestimation of the transition’s contribution to climate and air quality goals," the study concludes.

Here is the study: Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition (pdf)

Archived version

...

Between 2017 and 2023, new PV installations added an average of 246.6 TWh of electricity each year, while aerosol-related losses from existing systems reached 74.0 TWh annually - equivalent to nearly one-third of the gains from new capacity. This highlights a previously unrecognised interaction between fossil fuel use and renewable energy, where emissions from one system directly reduce the performance of the other.

...

This effect is particularly evident in China, where solar and coal capacity have expanded in parallel and are often co-located. Regions with high coal capacity aligned closely with areas experiencing the greatest solar PV losses.

...

China is the world’s largest solar producer, and generated 793.5 TWh of solar PV electricity in 2023 (41.5% of the global total). But it also experienced the largest losses from aerosols, with total output reduced by 7.7%. The researchers estimate that around 29% of aerosol-related solar PV losses in China come specifically from coal-fired power plants. Coal plants emit fine pollution particles that scatter and absorb sunlight, reducing the amount that reaches nearby solar panels. As a result, the panels generate less electricity than they otherwise could.

...