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this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2024
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Attacking a US embassy deliberately is a VERY dangerous escalatory move. Legally the embassy is territory of the owning country. Given the salami slicing we've seen I would expect the embassies are way down on the list.
Although I agree that it would be seen as an escalation, it would fit the bill of Putin's and Lavrov's comments over it being a valid reaction, without necessarily striking into actual NATO territory.
They can also send multiple clear warnings like they did last time so that the embassies can evacuate personnel again, in order to prevent foreign (civilian) citizen deaths falling solely on their hands. But then NATO chains of command need to also act responsibly and allow personnel to evacuate, which is much more likely than it seems, as they did evacuate a cease functions temporarily just last week.
It's a fair point. I think hitting infrastructure is more likely, but you're right that it could be on their list and might be aligned with their goals.
The US literally attacked Russia with missiles while claiming it was Ukraine doing it and Russia saying that it sees it as the US and its vassals, so the escalation is already way past that point.
Agree not using nukes are like Russia holding back
Can you even imagine how the american public would react if that happened? If they could publish that american citizens died in an embassy after a Russian and have it actually be true?
There's still ambiguity under international norms because the missile launch button was plausibly pushed by a Ukrainian soldier in Ukrainian territory. Yes, everything else was provided by the USA or NATO, but there's still an ambiguity that would make a direct Russian attack on an embassy an escalation.