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this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2025
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If you're telling me that you think Harris lost 20% of Biden's voters to Trump in those 6 states, then yes, one of us definitely isn't reading. But it ain't me.
Brother, total voter turnout in 2024 has nothing to do with who voted in 2020. Very cool that the total numbers you are using to draw your conclusion are close to the same, but they have no correlation with each other unless you are making the bold assumption that the same exact set of people showed up in 2020 and 2024 lmao
So yes, given this data it is entirely possible that people staying home because of Gaza mattered, though to be clear that was never a claim that I made. I said 2020 voters’ largest reason for staying home was Gaza.
Nothing? No, really. Nothing?
Sure was weird to spend so much effort looking at this particular group of people in the OP then. I think you're grasping at straws here.
I guess going from "The discussion is over." to "it is entirely possible" is progress of a sort.
Sure, it would make sense that you might think going from "The discussion is over." to "it is entirely possible" is progress of a sort. Of course, this is only if somewhere along the way you imagined me making the argument that this is what swung the election one way or the other, then in your own mind managed to successfully debate against the point I never made.
And for the statistics in question, yes, 2020 voter turnout really does have nothing to do with 2024 voter turnout in the argument you are making unless you are making the assumption that the same exact slate of people showed up for both elections.
Close to the same total number of people showing up ≠ the same exact group of people showed up +/- net difference
You cannot expect me to believe this schtick where you pretend this information doesn't belong in the context of the broader discussion about the outcome of the 2024 election. This is not a free floating factoid you happened to be interested in for the purely intellectual pursuit of understanding the motivations of Democratic voters. What is the importance of this information outside of that context?
If you’d stop reading into things I didn’t say, this whole discussion would have been much less frustrating for you. It’s literally in the title of my post. The top reason Biden 2020 voters sat out of the 2024 election was Gaza. Literally that is the point. The point is that it was actually a reason people chose not to vote.
I'm not frustrated, even slightly.
What discussion is over then? What is the purpose of bringing this up in all future elections, as the title directs me to do?
can you Indian number system
if Dem voters in 2024 are different from Dem voters in 2020, it means that Gaza turned people off yes, AND ALSO that something Kamala did BROUGHT IN ADDITIONAL VOTERS. MEANING THE NET LOSS IS ALMOST BREAKING EVEN.
So yes, you can consider them equivalent big picture. She lost a very small fraction of voters, which is irrelevant to the whole reason of why she lost.
Yes, it is entirely possible that policy on Palestine is irrelevant to the reason Kamala lost. Have you also considered that people showed up for other reasons that weren’t Palestine related at all?
Net change in vote between 2020 and 2024 means literally nothing here. It gives you no useful information other than comparing the vote totals. It does not tell you who did/did not vote and why, it tells you how many people did/did not vote.