Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.
Due to a request by @miz@hexbear.net, this thread's COTW is Qatar.
The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.
I'm not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we'll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Iran might get nuked tonight or tomorrow .. there are 5-7 B2 on diego garcia and Russia has send the strategic coperation Agreement to the Parlament for Approval . So the Timewindow for a Act like this is closing fast.
It's not necessarily about nukes. It could just be to offer more capability in using conventional standoff munitions jsow jassm
Ignorant nothing ever happens Lurker here, can you explain why this tweet is an indication of nukes being dropped on Iran? Seems like that won't be very good and would result in a lot of things happening
I dont think AmeriKKKa would be so stupid to do that but I could be convinced otherwise. They might do a strike on Isfahan or something (and tbf using something like a MOAB isn't far off a tactical nuke in yield).
Even if the nuke was effective in its target, Iran would immediately flatten Israel with the rest of its missile silos (the US would have to expend a lot of its stockpile to disable Iranian missile bases that number hundreds), and they still might have nuclear capabilities within a short time period with almost everyone in Iranian politics begging Khameini to lift his fatwa against Nuclear armament (he'd likely change face if the US nuked them).
The B-2s are probably going to do something really stupid and aggressive against the houthis. Maybe even fly over Iran on the way to Yemen just to prove they can penetrate Iranian AA networks. But even for Trump and Hesgeth the crown jewel of nuking Iran without consequence is far from reality, and likely will never occur (without consequence) since the pact is due to be signed as you said.
Thank you for the explanation
you Stating that your Ignorant and you didnt even notice the lot that is currently happening is not encoraging me to invest time.
6 Nuclear Capable Bombers , 3 Carier Strike Groups .. Strategic Security Agreemnet waiting to be Approved by Russia , so time is running out for the Nuke option .. its now or never with the most "now" administration you can imagine..
I appreciate you taking the time regardless. Thank you
Shout out to you for handling that undeserved and rude comment with more grace than I would have.
Not here to fight i didn't take it personally
Might be good to get some air and take a break or walk. It’s very unlikely that a nuclear attack will happen, and the stress you’re having on this doesn’t seem healthy.
no lol ? its 00.30 ,thats not a good time for a walk.
Any strikes on Iran will be conventional
conventional ones wouldnt reach the Missile cities. If you first strike you strike in a way that makes you maximalist unconcered with Irans Missile reation , the logic of Irans Second strike capability invites a nuclear first strike so to say...
I just don't think the US would kill millions in one fell swoop. I'm sure we're that evil, but it would turn the entire world against us
I've seen people saying that the whole Atlantic/Signal thing was intentional and a smokescreen for something big happening in the next few days
Tbf, nothing could overshadow a nuclear strike, but a limited conventional one maybe?
I can’t imagine a world where the US carries out a preemptive nuclear strike on a non-nuclear nation.
If Iran sunk a carrier fleet that might happen though.
this "cant imagine thing" has no influence of the world .. the world does what it does anyway ..
that might be the play they go for .. "The Poles sunk the USS Gleiwitz! " - maybe this hole show is just playacting to increase the Negotation Postion. But I Assume Israel using Americans to Nuke Iran beeing a very realistic option as well.
They would absolutely have to build a basis for it.
I suppose if the US drops a nuke on Iran without any warning or false provocation at all, I will eat my hat as the world ends in Nuclear fire
that literally allready happend and it had splendid results for the perpetrator
No, it didn't. The US was at war with Japan and had already invaded Japanese territories. The nuclear strikes we not pre-emptive.
And back then the horrific nature of nuclear war was not yet fully understood. People were still thinking of nukes as just being really big bombs.
They also thought the whole atmosphere could ignite. There was definitely a big risk involved.
What if Iran "did an assassination attempt" on trump?
Damn so it was not a good decision to watch Threads (1984) for the first time today?
Iran doesnt have a Nuvclear deterend thats kind of the Crux of the hole issue , enabling the "undetered action"
I know, it was a statement more hyperbolic in nature.