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this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2025
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Will the political will to start an actual shooting war with the US be there?
I don't think there's a practical ability. The European powers can't project power outside their boarders without the US helping. Especially with an overseas nation like Greenland.
England and France have a few carriers, but that's about it. Landing troops would be highly vulnerable to US air superiority. US carriers are larger and more numerous than anything Europe can put up. Based on the local geography, those carriers can stay safe from drone range (a benefit Russia does not have on the Black Sea).
But that also assumes the US military is unified to follow orders into an illegal war, and that may not be the case.
It's depressing that it's almost come to that small hope, that our military isn't as stupid as those giving the orders to them.
France alone could roll up a nuclear submarine wherever, though. It would be a weird war but I don't actually know how unequal it would be.
The US has more supercarriers than France has nuclear attack submarines. That's not even counting US "amphibious assault ships", which would be carriers in anybody else's navy. It's pretty unequal.
Yes, but what would they go and do with them? I'm not super sure they could use much of that stuff up in Greenland when things are iced over, and then there's the question of how survivable they would be vs. technologically sophisticated Europe. What does holding Greenland even mean to them? What kind of losses are they willing to take elsewhere? What about MAD?
I mentioned the submarine thing because you made it sound like they'd be stuck on their own continent, and that's an obvious counterexample. There's like a million things at play.
Carriers would provide air superiority to prevent any reinforcements from landing. That's all. Trump is willing to push a war of attrition on this one, because again, he's an idiot.
If a nuclear sub did manage to sink a US supercarrier, Trump would likely try to galvanize support in a "Remember the Maine!" fashion. I doubt it would shift actual support much at all. Quite the opposite; without doing the legwork for a paper thin excuse ahead of time and building a media frenzy the way the Bush II admin did, it only highlights how dumb and pointless the whole thing is, and that he's putting American service members at risk for no gain whatsoever.
Oh, and that nuclear sub would be hunted down and sunk in response. The EU doesn't have the forces to win a war of attrition.
The only way I see this working out for the EU is if there's a major purge of the US military beforehand. That would ensure loyalty to Trump, but it would toss competence into a woodchipper. Edit: see the Finish Winter War for how well purges work out. And the Finns technically still lost that one.
If it goes long enough for new production to matter, the EU is actually better equipped for a war of attrition, being bigger and having some kind of unity. Would it actually be a drawn-out war of attrition, or something else? Hard to say, because like you've pointed out the whole thing is so dumb.
Again, carriers aren't the only variable in play, even if they are very good at creating a zone of air superiority. Greenland isn't the only theater here, it's not a single point you can sit on top of, and it's not even mostly inhabited. I'll try not to repeat myself about the other factors I've mentioned.
Curious about why it would be an illegal war. Unjust, immoral, unprovoked, and unnecessary are not actually what makes a war illegal.
The invasion of Iraq was entirely based on false pretenses and the military was perfectly unified. Compared to that, an open war of conquest is pretty reasonable.
It's illegal by international law--UN charter and the ICC both have sections against invading other country's territory. International law is only as good as anyone is willing to enforce it, which in the case of Iraq, wasn't very much.
Why would Greenland be different? Iraq was supported by a paper thin excuse of WMDs, and the history of antagonism. The Trump Administration hasn't done the legwork to even setup a paper thin excuse beyond "they have resources we want", and there's no particular history of Greenland invading its own neighbors or even threatening them. In fact, it's been an important strategic location for the US Navy's control of the North Atlantic since WWII. Trump hasn't bothered with even the slightest attempt at this because he's an idiot.
Does that mean the military will refuse the order? I really have no idea. It's not something anybody should count on. More likely, you'll have different units making different decisions. Some outright refusing, others slow walking their orders while appearing to obey, and others eager to do it. However, it's possible that the military will refuse en masse.
I think the burgeoning protest movements in the US should also be prepared to take direct action against the military. Things like linking hands to block the gates to weapons factories. And to the naysayers of "what are these protests even accomplishing?", it's to prepare a mass movement that is capable of doing this sort of thing.
The paper thin excuse is "national security" that Europe may get uppity in next few years and US needs full control of Greenland territory in order to bomb them back to Iraq level.
Iraq is filled with "scary looking" brown people with a different religion. And they have the excuse of 9/11.
Greenland tho? Yea good luck convincing people to fight the war.