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US Economy Was Already Sputtering Before Trade Pain Kicked In
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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all the official numbers are so cooked and fucked. every time i get a chance to share this site i do: https://www.lisep.org/
24% real unemployment v. 4.2% "unemployment"
9.4% true living cost v. 4.1% CPI (the CPI is heavily weighted in areas that do not affect your day-to-day living/life. if you strip down to the essentials of necessity/core living needs - inflation is so so so much worse)
$1,000 weekly earnings v. $1,194
edit: i really want to nerd rage about CPI some more. i fucking hate the CPI. i'm also a bit high rn but whatever
it does consumer-whore adjustments. so like. a faster computer = more for your dollar even though it costs more. but it doesn't account for this because faster computer = less inflation or something another?????
it also does the substitutions: if pork is expensive it doesn't account for this because you go buy beef or whatever instead. but what if everything increases? oh you buy tofu suuure.
it looks at rental costs not buying homes. sure buying a home is impossible, but this isn't factored in because "rent only went up whatever %" while down payment + interest rate + housing costs went WILD.
the CPI includes things people don't buy or put in their budget. jet skis? cool it's included even though who tf buys jet skis? (okay jet skis are cool... but you see my point?)
if the CPI was actually accurate, it would look at only/weight HEAVILY core living costs. things like: housing, utilities, internet, food, healthcare, transportation, childcare, and personal good like soap, detergent, basic clothing. fuck everything outside of this.
oh wow didn't know about lisep, 24% effectively unemployed is wild
yah. it's gene ludwig which was clinton's 1990s comptroller... so take that what you will. but it's still doing good work.
i read the methodology for its/his take on UE and it makes so so so much more sense that the BLS stats
It definitely seems more inline with other measures such as credit card delinquencies. Thanks again for linking it, definitely an interesting read.