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this post was submitted on 07 May 2025
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There's photo proof that at least 1 Rafale was shot down. There's a photo of Rafale tail wreckage BS-001, which means it was the first Rafale delivered to India. Last night there was already a video of a wrecked missile launcher and wrecked French MICA missile on the ground in front of a burning jet fighter. It was either shot down by HQ-9 (Chinese S-300) SAM, or JF-17 or J-10CE jets with PL-15 (Chinese long range air to air missile). Chinese missiles took out France's top fighter jet.
Funny thing is that the 2019 flare up between India and Pakistan, there was also fighter jet engagement. Pakistan said they shot down an Su-30MKI and an old Mig (bison?), and India claimed they shot down an F-16. The only proof was the Mig pilot was captured alive and later returned back to India. 2019 showed IAF that they needed "better" fighter jets, they think Western Jets were the best, so they quickly went for the hyped up Rafales. Just like in Ukraine, NATO wunderwaffe has proven to be overhyped, and way overpriced, when matched against an equal opponent.
The world is about to find out if public industry or private industry is really the better way to build things when public industrial militaries go up against private industrial militaries.
So far it's not looking good for privatization. Unsurprisingly
World War One was a struggle between the old feudal systems and the newer, capitalist modes of production. The capitalists won and the first socialist nation was born out of a crumbling monarchy.
I'm hoping all this isn't a precursor to another world war and things de-escalate. The contradictions of capitalism are becoming impossible to reconcile and it seems like it's trying to take the world down with it.
Yes, but private profits > good, useful products!
/s
Theory: just like in Ukraine, part of the goal is to draw out military capabilities and see how they perform. Russia did everything it could to limit advanced tech deployment in the beginning of the SMO to avoid showing all its cards, but the US still gained valuable Intel on Russian capabilities. If my theory is correct that this flare up is being directed by the US, it could be partially to get Intel on the field performance of Chinese weapon systems.
France would not allow their best fighter jet to get shot down by China's mid range fighter jets, just so Uncle Sam could get some information on Chinese military hardware. It's a major blow to the reputation of Dassault (Rafale Manufacturer). Western military tech sales are hyped up because of their real world success on the battlefield, but they've always been picking on weaker armies.
Would France have any power here? The issue is whether or not India attacks Pakistan. What happens afterward is all data. My conjecture is the US has a vested interest in India attacking Pakistan, that this flare up was engineered by the US, and I am trying to understand what the US gains from it as a way of analyzing my hypothesis
Intel may be part of it, but I suspect thoy wanted to try to force conflict between China and India + thoroughly corner another Muslim country, if possible.
I suspect they had little belief Chinese tech would be on an entirely different, superior level to western tech, or they considered it a relatively unlikely worst case scenario.
I agree that the intelligence angle is only part of it. The chaos of war creates a lot of opportunities. Additionally, it can potentially shore up domestic support for Modi as a "war-time" leader, create some pretext for Indian arms mobilization, create some pretext for US "peacekeeping" forces to be deployed, etc.
I think this conflict can do a lot for the US project, which is why I think the US may be behind it.
maybe they weren't expecting to get shot down and assumed they'd get the data without any losses
China also wants to know if their equipment performs as expected. It has, maybe even exceeding expectations.
I didn't think China would be pushing for a conflagration to test their systems though
Indeed!
The logistics of war being the one aspect they couldn't hide, or intentionally had several severe fuckups.