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Ukraine Faces A Growing Risk of Outright Military Collapse If No Deal Struck
(www.19fortyfive.com)
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this post was submitted on 22 May 2025
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Not exactly sure about that, there's going to be a substantial insurgency either way.
Yeah, either way. The best outcome for Ukraine would’ve been to tell the west to kick rocks in like 2013, not done ethnic cleansing, and not gotten into this situation in the first place.
But now the best outcome is anything that ends the war with the least amount of control by the United States.
There will definitely be an insurgency but I'm not sure it's going to be as powerful as many think. With the losses Ukraine has suffered, there won't be a huge reserve of people willing and able to carry it out, similar to how there was very little Nazi insurgent activity after the end of the war because most of the true believers with military experience had been killed by that point. This is probably an additional reason as to why Russia is carrying out its attritional strategy, as it partially defangs the inevitable insurgency. But I suppose the counter to my argument is that a Ukrainian insurgency would almost certainly have Western intelligence backing, whereas the Nazi's Werwolf was an anemic project from the outset with no outside backing.
That and all the skilled nazis got hired by the us and nato for reasons. When the nazis stayed in power in lots of places there was not a practical need for them to have an insurgency in that way.
Good point, I definitely overlooked that. I also forgot to mention for comparison that one of the reasons why the Iraqi insurgency was so strong was because the Iraqi military wasn't destroyed (at least manpower-wise) in the US invasion, which allowed huge swathes of Iraqi soldiers to become insurgents.
I have to remember to think about it myself. That lifetime of propaganda sits in sometimes.
In the west, which I doubt russia will occupy. Central and Eastern Ukraine will be no issue.