95
Ukraine Faces A Growing Risk of Outright Military Collapse If No Deal Struck
(www.19fortyfive.com)
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
this post was submitted on 22 May 2025
95 points (96.1% liked)
news
24740 readers
657 users here now
Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:
-
To learn about and discuss meaningful news, analysis and perspectives from around the world, with a focus on news outside the Anglosphere and beyond what is normally seen in corporate media (e.g. anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, Marxist, Indigenous, LGBTQ, people of colour).
-
To encourage community members to contribute commentary and for others to thoughtfully engage with this material.
-
To support healthy and good faith discussion as comrades, sharpening our analytical skills and helping one another better understand geopolitics.
We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.
Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:
The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.
-
Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.
-
Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.
-
Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.
-
Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.
-
Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.
-
Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.
-
American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.
-
Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.
-
AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.
founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS
At this point I pretty strongly believe that total collapse and occupation by Russia would be far and away the best outcome for most Ukrainians
Its the best outcome for the world too, we don't need a western rump Ukraine for the EU/US to pump full of weapons and create a flashpoint
Ok but what if rump Ukrainian state backed by EU/US that turns on the EU/US?
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Blowback Season 7 hell yeah
Not exactly sure about that, there's going to be a substantial insurgency either way.
Yeah, either way. The best outcome for Ukraine would’ve been to tell the west to kick rocks in like 2013, not done ethnic cleansing, and not gotten into this situation in the first place.
But now the best outcome is anything that ends the war with the least amount of control by the United States.
There will definitely be an insurgency but I'm not sure it's going to be as powerful as many think. With the losses Ukraine has suffered, there won't be a huge reserve of people willing and able to carry it out, similar to how there was very little Nazi insurgent activity after the end of the war because most of the true believers with military experience had been killed by that point. This is probably an additional reason as to why Russia is carrying out its attritional strategy, as it partially defangs the inevitable insurgency. But I suppose the counter to my argument is that a Ukrainian insurgency would almost certainly have Western intelligence backing, whereas the Nazi's Werwolf was an anemic project from the outset with no outside backing.
That and all the skilled nazis got hired by the us and nato for reasons. When the nazis stayed in power in lots of places there was not a practical need for them to have an insurgency in that way.
Good point, I definitely overlooked that. I also forgot to mention for comparison that one of the reasons why the Iraqi insurgency was so strong was because the Iraqi military wasn't destroyed (at least manpower-wise) in the US invasion, which allowed huge swathes of Iraqi soldiers to become insurgents.
I have to remember to think about it myself. That lifetime of propaganda sits in sometimes.
In the west, which I doubt russia will occupy. Central and Eastern Ukraine will be no issue.
You strongly believe Russia should occupy the parts of Ukraine that are majority Ukrainian? Why?
This is a country that was already not wealthy to begin with, which will have to deal with the devastation caused by the war, with the remains of a military increasingly run by card-carrying neo nazis and with having lost an entire generation of men. And if that wasn't enough, Ukraine has already agreed to let Western capital loot the country and strip it for parts the second the war is over, like the extortion deal they signed with the US. Even if Putin were to sign an unconditional ceasefire tomorrow and retreat from every occupied territory, Ukraine would be absolutely and completely fucked.
Those territories becoming part of Russia would cause its own share of problems, sure, but I can see how Russia would be more capable of rebuilding and maintaining at least a minimum of stability.
Couldn’t have said it better