Image is sourced from this Economist article.
Most of the information in this preamble is from the Cradle; notably here, here, here, and here.
The features of an effective American war (proxy or otherwise) is that it is a) against opponents with much less military power than you; b) with very low American losses; c) with victories you can visibly show off from time to time to justify involvement, and d) with a profit margin beyond merely giving money to military corporations. The war against Yemen was none of those; airplanes tumbled off aircraft carriers, and the navy complained of the hardest fighting conditions in decades. Conquering Yemen for its resources was inconceivable given the terrain, lack of good intelligence, and the strength of Ansarallah, and all that seemed to be visibly harmed were empty patches of desert and civilians.
Apparently, the ceasefire last month merely stipulated that they stop attacking merchant vessels in the Red Sea; it said nothing about attacking Israel. Therefore, Yemen is absolutely free to create a new blockade of Israel by just striking their airports and seaports, and all Israel can seem to do is try and bomb them in retaliation, a futile strategy which has failed to produce a military or political change in Yemen for the last decade when many other countries have tried it. And if America directly attacks them in response to attacks on Israel, the ceasefire is off, and expensive equipment will continue to be lost.
Across the strait from Yemen is an interesting array of countries. Egypt's position in this war is well-known, and Somalia is under a kind of US occupation under the guise of fighting terrorism (Trump withdrew most troops, but they were then sent back under Biden). The other three are Sudan, Djibouti, and Eritrea. All three are increasingly being drawn into the anti-imperialist camp, as they cooperate with Iran, Russia, and/or China. Sudan is undergoing a civil war, but the rebels fighting the government are famously backed by the UAE. Djibouti has refused to allow themselves to be a launchpad for US strikes on Yemen.
Eritrea has a fascinating history of flip-flopping between West and East over the past few decades, but has, since 2020, sided with the East. It was one of the five countries to oppose the 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia's war with Ukraine. Eritrea sends two thirds of its exports to China, and Iran has reportedly supplied them with military equipment. If a stronger link could be reforged, then Iran would have significantly less trouble sending military technology to Ansarallah, and to other friendly groups throughout the region.
Naturally, the lidless eye of the imperial core is shifting its gaze onto Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopia - a country that has experienced frequent conflict with Eritrea - is part of BRICS+ and their economy is increasingly reliant on China (as is most countries' economies nowadays). If a permanent resolution between the two could be created, it would be a victory for themselves and the Resistance, and a defeat for America, which thrives on conflict and destabilization.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I've decided to check in with the libs and endured half an hour of a shitlib news podcast on Ukraine (2x speed though)
The expert (basically just a journalist) said:
The war is a stalemate, since the Russians said they'd win in a couple of weeks, so they are quite humiliated, especially because of the recent attacks
Despite the stalemate the Russians are unwilling to compromise on their demands
One of their demands is the lifting of sanctions, which signals that the sanctions do hurt the Russians
Yeah it turns out the Russian economy did not collapse in a few months after the first round of sanctions, but who knows what will happen, they are very strained
It might be true that there's some fatigue in the Ukrainian populace, but the drone strike boosts morale
In Ukraine, human resources (mobilization) are the main challenge, especially in the absence of spectacular successes (like in the autumn of 2022)
Trump courts Putin and criticizes Ukraine, which reinforces the "proxy war" narrative for Russia and makes them less willing to compromise
Ukraine was very smart to do Operation Spiderweb completely independently, it shows that they are capable
This allowed Ukraine to signal its capability to carry out independent operations for which Russia may not have a ready countermeasure. This implies they are not in such a dire position that they are forced to accept all Russian conditions and, in essence, surrender
And so on and so forth, it truly feels like a parallel universe, but some facts start to seep in, but very very slowly (he mentioned that 6 million Ukrainians fled the country in the first year of the war)
Even hexbear beloved breadtube icon hassan still thinks ukrainians can win and how they "owned" evil putler by bombing those rockets or whatever and putting israel & russia on the same level lol. Their minds will shatter once ukraine basically loses a third of its country. Mayhaps they will give it the finland treatment though.
Hasan did not say that at all. He said that Ukraine had the right to carry out the drone attack which, no shit, it did. He didn't frame it as a morally cool super awesome putler p0wned thing, and he cursed NATO in the same phrase.
Part of “Operation Web” was also terrorist attacks on civilian targets such as the passenger train and Crimea bridges. No they don’t have a “right” to perpetrate terrorist attacks against civilians.
Fucking absurd there's people here arguing that the CIA has the "right" to do perfidious drone strikes inside of the sovereign territory of its enemies. Get a grip people before you become Bernard Sanders 2.0.
Edit: Actually even worse! I watched the clip and Hasan isn't saying that Ukraine has the right to do drone strikes against a military target they are at war with (a more reasonable take). No, he said "Do I think Ukraine are in the right to blow up some russian bombers? Hell fucking yes". He's expressing excitement and glee at NATO tactical victory, not saying that Ukraine has a legal right to fight. That gives me vaush and nafoid vibes.
While I vehemently disagree with the soft pro Ukraine takes he has,I won't shed tears over them losing some bombers.
Yes,it was a reckless escalation and a dangerous development,but I can also say fuck the Russians for being so corrupt and arrogant that they thought they wouldn't get this type of response from a state which is the manifestation of the hatred the west has for Russia,a weapon with which to dismember and damage it.
You can't tell me the onus is only on the west for striking and not on the crass incompetence for even making this possible on the Russian side.
I'm going to make this into a semi call-out post,so I do apologize for my combative tone,but I did ruminate this over some time, reading your takes on Russia.
First,I will never tarnish the valuable contributions of Russia to the fight against the West in the global south. Their support for the DPRK,Cuba and Traore is commendable in it of itself. Helping Syria and making it into an anti Israel bulwark was also an unequivocally good decision and I won't ever criticize their position of helping those who want to fight the west all over the globe.
Now,that being said,where my opinion differs from yours is what they do in their backyard. I am fully prepared to get shit on for being the average ungrateful post communist state dweller east European for some of these takes,but so be it. One,they are undoubtedly still a capitalist state.
Now,this absolutely doesn't mean they should be fractured, demilitarized or weakened,but at the end of the day,I will always keep them at arm's length until something changes radically in their political structure.
Two,they, no matter how much I understand and agree with their position,they are still a direct threat to me and to my livelihood. I can agree with their position and I certainly won't cry any tears if they strike a NATO base,but they still are indirectly a very real danger to me.
This isn't some fever dream of a liberal living in the west,I live right on the border with Ukraine and I saw Russian drone strikes from my house. If this gets ugly,me and my family are the first in the line of fire.
Of course,this would only happen because of NATO jumping the gun,but while my logical mind can tell me who is really responsible,I,like any normal person would have a hard time completely avoiding thinking anything negative of the people bombing you,no matter how much you know they're in the right.
This point is weaker,mainly boiling down to me being scared of them if NATO goes haywire,but it's my perspective as someone who's as close to this disaster as one can be without having their lives in danger.
Third,they did something I can never forgive this election cycle and backed the fascist candidate. Before you tear my throat for being a Russia gate style eurolib, I'm not talking about election interference,but something they said about the fascist candidate. They had the audacity to say he is like Traore and that he would free the country like he did.
Keep in mind this is a neo legionary crook football hooligan piece of shit who makes liberal use of slurs and even threatened a member of the Senate with SA.
The sheer cynicism of that move lays bare to me the fact that they dgaf about the consequences of what they do and that the good they do is just remnants of the Soviet past and favorable conjuncture.
And yes,this was reported on by the native pro western news,but even I can tell that shit was astroturfed from one direction, because no Romanian knows who TF is Traore and what he did. That is not to mention their opposition to the cancelled elections last year. Yes it was a filthy PSD power grab so that they could try to re rig the election into having their candidate get into the second round,but it also kept Georgescu,a rabid lunatic who sieg heils with the best of them and has eulogized the "national hero" Antonescu.
Idgaf if he's the only anti west guy, voicing your support for this human filth shows that you don't give a fuck about denazification when the Nazis say they want to follow "Russian wisdom".
I will never disparage the conduct of the USSR towards Romania,with the small caveat that the Moldovan SSR should've kept the Bugeac,but the shit the RF is attempting to pull here now is quite frankly appalling and makes me seriously doubt their commitment to to liberation and instead makes me think they only want to split the world like a cake and put the worst kind of fascist adjacent buffoons in their slice so that they can control them like puppets.
Do I think they will invade us?No.
Do I think they should win in Ukraine?Yes
Do I think they should be a counterweight to NATO? Absolutely
That all being said,I can't see them as anything more than a useful enemy of the west,with a cynical foreign policy for my slice of the world.
I do not care if it seems like I'm trying to say they are at fault for this (I do not) and that they are the quiet supporters of neo legionaries in my country (they are),I can't get over some of the more blatant running of defence for Russia even when they fuck up spectacularly and let shit like this happen. It's nice that they hold up a lot of the big opposition to the west in the global south,but them giving their soft backing to the neo legionary candidate is a bit too much for me. It's clear they have a vision for eastern Europe and I don't know if I'm in complete agreement with it.
I'm not reading that wall of text
you aren't responding to what i said. Ukraine targeted a civilian passenger train and civilian vehicles when destroying a civilian bridge over a railway. That was this same operation, done at the same time, by the same guys. They also launched yet more drones into the Crimean bridge, a purely civilian bridge. They are doing terrorist attacks.
Look,I'm not being combative, but it's alright,you don't wanna read it,fine
However,when did I say the Kerch attack was justified? Did I say I'm a crypto banderite? I realize I'm talking to someone called Zposter here,but some charity would be warranted. The attack on the military bases is both on Ukraine for attacking and on Russia for not preventing it,that's my point.
I think it's a little unfair how even the slightest criticism of Russia is enough to brand someone as a pro Ukr,pro NATO chauvinist.
The reason I'm so up in arms is because eastern Europeans get so much unwarranted shit here and it's been bothering me. Most of it is completely warranted,mind you,I find myself astounded at the servility of our compradors to the west and the depravity of our Russophobia.
What I don't appreciate is us being sandpapered over because of the historical and modern day pro west lackeys that held power in our area of the world and how we have to treat Russia like it's still the Soviet Union if we don't want to be branded as "pro NATO".
This area ping ponged between Russia and the west for two centuries now and even in the best of times, during the Soviet years,there was still a soft undercurrent of subordination to them.
So now we have to be completely uncritical of what they do because they saved us from fascism,even when the state that actually did that now decayed into a oligarchic semi dictatorship that stumbled ass backwards into being on the good side of history because the west got too greedy and didn't wanna share and because of the Soviet heritage. It's just a bit insulting to be treated as a punchline, "the reddit belt", when voicing even the slightest negative opinion towards them.
I will never criticize the heroic efforts of the Soviet Union nor the measures it sought to implement in the liberated nations.
However,I hold no such reverence for the RF,no matter of how beneficial they are to the global south,they have a vision for this corner of the world that is fundamentally incompatible to what it would look like if it was truly liberated and I believe that is not a chauvinistic thing to believe at all.
I just have no idea what any of this has to do with this conversation or why it's relevant.
Hasan supports some terrorist attacks, I say "hey that's chauvinist bullshit" and you decided to lore dump on me about your unrelated gripes.
Well,fair enough,but it was cooking in my mind for a while
Also,I don't know if he said anything about the bridge attacks,all I recall was the military bases being attacked being commented on
No him and all other pro-Ukraine chauvinist talking heads don't mention the attacks on civilian targets that happened concurrently with Operation Web. That's the point. It just further proves my point that he talks as if it never happened
Yeah,that I think is irresponsible
Overall I still think he does more good than harm,but he's way into "anti war-ism" on the Ukraine issue
Anti-warism is an idealist, radliberal position that poisons the brains of westerners
Interesting perspective. Mostly commenting to say that I've read your comments. It is much to digest.
No offense, but please space your paragraphs. This was difficult for me to read even on a tablet.
Sorry,used to just spacing once instead of twice
Will revise
They are already way on their ways. They just need the right person to massage the message. So much explosive rhetoric but so little actual revolutionary substance.
He didn't say "they have the right to do it" by the way. I just watched the clip. He said "Do I think Ukraine was in the right to do this. Hell Fucking Yes"
He is gleefully cheering, not making some argument about state rights. He isn't saying that Ukraine has the legal right to do this, he's saying "It is correct and good to inflict damage on Russia on behalf of NATO"
Sorry, I'm a Spaniard so English isn't my native language. I thought that "being in the right" is a synonym with "having the right to", I see now it's not. Thanks for the correction
I mean people called me liar and all that. I didn’t have an opinion on the guy before the empanda stream and then watched a couple of videos and he said these things.
The thumbnail literally is just evidence enough. The cognitive dissonance is strong. Like like three or four times he called North Korea a dynastic dictatorship where the kim family rules as a monarchy. Like ok thats just straight up cia BS.
Wanna take a wild guess what this guy's opinion on Syria and Assad was?
I mean, that's a fan channel, not him
Here's his words from the auto-transcript, edited for legibility, emphasis mine:
First the chauvinism, then the upcoming both-sidesism to whitewash himself. 'Look I'm left as it gets but Ukrainian Nazis are based when the do terrorist attacks inside of Russia against civilian trains and bridges, and it's FUCKING EPIC'
Head pats. Now back to your regularly scheduled western chauvinism
Literal blue anon radlib nonsense. You defend this guy? Really? This is your guy? DRUMPF IS HUMILIATING ZELENSKYY AND GUIDING PUTIN. DO SOMETHING CIA!!! I HATE NATO BUT ALSO PLEASE NATO PROXY BLOW UP YOUR ENEMIES ITS EPIC!
You really defending this absolute libshit? We need to Punish Putler because he's basically Israel, we need to protect American unipolarity to keep Russia (and Israel apparently) at bay! (Don't mind me implying that Israel somehow benefits from America's power waning, so us good anti-zionists should apparently want to keep American hegemony around) Goddamn this is such radlib horseshit how do you even begin to tell me this shit is ok? If someone came into hexbear and started commenting like this, they would be banned instantly.
I was banned from his chat instantly when I posted the Palestine flag in his stream where he was crying about Kamala losing. Everyone in the comments saying anything about Palestine being the cause of Democrats losing was instantly banned. These are his mods. This "fan channel" is given its approval by him. His editors are paid by him. He cultivates this radlib following.
Wait what this is what Hassan says? I've never watched the guy, had no idea the liberalism runs that deep, saying that Putin is controlling Trump. From the way people talk about him, you think he's some kind of online Maoist lol.
Does he not understand the concept of distance? Gaza is next door and has no air defences, Iran is nearly 1000 miles away and has an integrated air defence system protecting key sites, which was targeted. It's a lot easier to bomb people next door with no defences than flying 1000 miles and going up against S-300s. The planes don't teleport to their targets.
Hasanabi Productions isn't an official channel, Hasan has no control over this channel. He's openly explained many times how he doesn't take any action against these channels clipping him and uploading it to YT because
Free advertising
He doesn't really believe in intellectual property in that way and he's totally fine with people reuploading his content
Correct. It's bizarre reading so much out right bullshit in the news mega.
Incorrect lmao
It comes off extremely pathetic and lonely looking to suck up to parasocial streamers this much. Hasan regularly creates "Putin 0wned" content and regularly praises Ukraine and calls Russia fascist and imperialist, and he supports Ukraine winning the war and has said as much multiple times. He's a social chauvinist, and if you can't see it you are too
I don’t think Hasan thinks Ukraine can win, pretty sure he thinks Ukraine needs to accept the losses they have. I’m gonna be honest with you I watched Hasan talk about those recent events and he absolutely does not equate Russia and Israel, I really don’t get where you’re coming from at all on this. Criticize Hasan for a lot of things but he doesn’t have bad takes on Palestine.
I said he equates russia with israel genocidal actions. I have heard it multiple times at this point, he also keeps mentioning putin, Netanyahu and trump in the same sentence = moral. But I wont argue about it because people have an toxic one-sides parasocial obsession with that guy, which is not warranted, no offence. Besides that he was big into supporting kamala and vooooote scolding. So like supporting genocide?
No offense taken, but honestly I don’t see where any of this is coming from, and I watch him pretty regularly. I don’t mind calling him out on stuff but like, there was definitely no vote scolding for Kamala on his stream. It feels like people who critically support him and who don’t are watching two different streams, I don’t get it.
On the stream where he was crying about Kamala losing after the election, legitimately tilted and getting visibly upset, his mods were banning everyone in the chat who mentioned Palestine being the cause
This is an outright lie.
You are either misinformed or have an agenda. Hasan refused to endorse Harris. Was kicked out of the DNC convention for calling out the Democrats for their support of Israel. He is the most prolific streamer advocating for Palestinian emancipation. He is the target of an active ADL campaign to deplatform him for his criticism of Israel. He has not once vote scolded. I've listened to his stream while working since he started on Twitch. He frequently explains to his chat that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is completely different than the active genocide in Gaza. I don't agree with him on everything but he's a positive force.
IE, the standard Neocon line on sanctions and squeezing Russia and negotiating from a position of strength and all that. It's literally just re-branded Lindsay Graham talk, except Lindsay Graham approves of Israel. For him, the solution to this war is to make Ukraine stronger. How is that not a chauvinist position? He wants his own empires proxy to win.
He is directly equating Israel and Russia here as regional powers that will get away with whatever they want due to America's hegemony weakening. He says that is a bad thing, and very often puts Trump, Netanyahu and Putin in the same line equating them, as he does here:
He believes BlueAnon nonsense about Drumpf and Putler being on a team, and poor Zelesnkyy is the victim.
The only conclusion one can draw from these types of opinion is that he's a radlib interventionist and western chauvinist. He wants unipolarity to remain strong, he bemoans it degrading, blames Trump and Putin for it, and somehow believes that America weakening is making Israel stronger although that makes 0 sense whatsoever. The way Israel is destroyed is through further weakening of American hegemony, not strengthening of it. Israel is a product of American unipolarity, not of regional multipolarity. His muddled, confused and unfocused analysis frequently has these problems.
No Sinisterium is absolutely correct. Every time Russia comes up Hassan calls it a "fascist" country and denounces their "full scale imperialist invasion"
This is literally the main argument I hear from about why Russia won't win the war - they said they'd take the whole country in a few weeks, they didn't, and therefore they can't win
(No Russian officials ever said anything about winning the war in a couple of weeks, this was entirely Western talking heads who said this)
This NYT article is the source, I think
So Barroso said Putin said this (in 2014)
He could have ended the war in 2 weeks in 2014, the Ukrainian army was basically non-existent at that point. He never claimed that about the SMO in 2022.
It feels like they need to strike a delicate balance in praising Ukraine, but also not praising them too much that people would think they don't need Western aid
All of this is of course very far from actual materialist or even realist analysis
an excerpt:
It is truly amazing how biased they are that they don't turn the very same arguments around to talk about Ukraine:
Russia has waaaay more capabilities to "surprise" (escalate) further. It actually shows restraint that they haven’t bombed every bridge and power station in Western Ukraine (that's what the US would do)
As opposed to Ukraine's sincerity? Are you serious?!?! Conducting a large drone attack hours before demanding ceasefire? I shoot at you then shout "ceasefire"! Is this sincere?
Literally what Ukraine is doing in trying to get back territory through negotiation they've lost years ago
Did the Russians change their demands? Lavrov has been quite open about it for years at this point.
Nope, the memorandum delivered in Istanbul is substantially identical to Putin's June 2024 terms. Nothing has changed from the Russian side in a year in terms of their demands.