Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So Israel will be resupplied with intercept missiles, return all focus to the genocide, and all of this will have been for nothing. Wonderful.
Over the course of years, sure. We have no idea of their stocks or even realistic production capacity but I would be surprised if their stocks since Al-aqsa flood have ever recovered fully.
Again, it's hard to tell. Sure the genocide continues (and never stopped) but Hamas has had some "improved momentum" in Khan Yunis thanks to Israel removing troops to cover its borders - resistance is still alive.
The crux of it is; Israel needs manpower to occupy the strip, the west bank, and project strength against the comprador states. Heavy attrition in the strip on top of a week of Iranian missile volleys has exhausted and pissed off a lot of people who thought they could grill their way through the neoholocaust on their doorstep.
The Israeli government also threats to resume the Iran front should they wish ,much like Lebanon, but with a guarantee of retaliation. That means a lot of those troops will have to remain mobilised and placed on external borders for the foreseeable; not in the strip.
I won't say Gaza is about to free itself and Abu Obeida will be in Tel Aviv by August, but this was yet another crack emanating towards the core of America's imperial quarters of West Asia. Yet another small contradiction that, come the right time and opportunity, become a fulcrum.
Hundreds of settlers dead, and the myth of invulnerability and omnipotence that holds the fabric of Israel together was shattered.
Iran has a historic opportunity to learn from a military crisis it has not endured since its infancy, but in the meantime has been able to retain its nuclear capability at almost full strength.
Even without nuclear weapons, Iran's reformists (including and especially Pezeshkian) have been shown the true face of Western "diplomacy". The rumblings in Pakistan are a sign of Iranian foreign policy setting its eyes east, rather than trying to play Saddam, Assad, and Gaddafi's fatal games of cooperation until too late.
Worth noting that the US industrial capacity can make 50 of these per year.
Given the speed of things lately I have absolutely no doubt that they will still be dangerously low on them by the next time they're needed. This is their manufacturing under good conditions too, currently China will not give the US rare earth minerals.
Resistance is also heating up with direct action networks. European countries like Norway and Denmark are seeing more and more disruption of Israel's supply chain, hampered by European unwillingness to supplement it with industry they want to keep for their own rearmament.
The UK's attempt to ban Palestine Action has galvanises support and will only increase their destructiveness as the ban naturally filters people with lower risk appetites out towards other actions.
Israel's population and economic disruption will also have the continued effect of hampering the Knesset's ability to fund interceptors, relying more heavily on freebies or diverting American pocket money into defense rather than offense.
These are all relatively minor things in the grand scheme of the US empire, but it is still worthy of consideration and a reminder that the odds are not as insurmountable as we can sometimes think.
Iran only got directly involved because Israel fucked with them first. The Iranian government didn't retaliate to address the genocide.
Also worth noting Israel actually took some hits. The veneer of invulnerablity has fallen off and some settlers are going to run, aiding to the death spiral. It's not enough but not nothing.
I've read that resupplying their interceptors is not as easy as just going down to the interceptor missile store down the street. The rare earth export restrictions placed by China as well as the ongoing trade uncertainty/conflict in general certainly complicates matters.