Japan’s governing coalition has lost its upper house majority following elections that saw major gains for a right-wing populist party that warned of a “silent invasion” by foreigners.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition won 47 seats in the 248-seat House of Councillors in Sunday’s election, three short of the 50 it needed to retain control of the upper chamber.
The outcome left Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior partner Komeito with a combined 122 deputies in the upper chamber, which fills half of its seats in elections every three years.
The result marks another serious blow for Ishiba, whose government is locked in high-stakes trade negotiations with United States President Donald Trump’s administration, after his coalition lost control of the more powerful National Diet, the lower house, in elections in October.
Speaking late on Sunday as exit polls pointed to a drubbing for his coalition, Ishiba said he “solemnly” accepted the “harsh result”.
“It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously,” Ishiba said in an interview with state broadcaster NHK.
Ishiba, who has led a minority government since losing control of the lower house, said he intended to stay on as prime minister despite the poor result.
Amid widespread discontent over rising living costs, the previously fringe Sanseito party broke into the political mainstream, picking up 14 seats on top of its one existing seat.
The party, which only holds three seats in the National Diet, capitalised on voter frustration over inflation and Japan’s moribund economy with warnings about immigration and populist pledges on tax cuts and social welfare.
Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya, a 47-year-old former English teacher and supermarket manager, has stirred controversy with conspiracy theories about vaccines and “globalist elites”, and cited Trump’s “bold political style” as inspiration.
In an interview with Nippon Television after the vote, Kamiya defended his “Japanese First” slogan.
“The phrase was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people’s livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan,” he said.
Despite denying accusations of xenophobia, Sanseito built its platform on nationalist appeals and fears of a “silent invasion” by immigrants.
Political analysts say the party’s message resonates with many Japanese voters facing a stagnant economy and a weakening yen, which have drawn record numbers of tourists and fuelled inflation.
Foreign residents in Japan reached a record 3.8 million last year, only about 3 percent of the population, but concerns about immigration remain present, even if not dominant.
NHK polling before the election showed that just 7 percent of respondents considered immigration as their main concern. Far more voters expressed anxiety over the country’s declining birthrate and rising food prices, particularly rice, which has doubled in cost over the past year.
“The buzz around Sanseito, especially here in the United States, stems from its populist and anti-foreign message. But it’s also a reflection of the LDP’s weakness,” said Joshua Walker, the president of the US-based Japan Society.
While Sanseito has drawn comparisons with far-right European groups such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK, right-wing populism is a relatively new phenomenon in Japan, where such movements have historically struggled to gain traction.
It's a common issue everywhere, this is possible in many countries now because of the shift in demographic balance where elderly make a bigger voter bloc compared to rest. Whereby governments use pensions and benefits for the elderly as a source of easy votes while using policies that constantly undermine young populations with living cost concerns then foreigners make an easy target and at the same time something to associate their discontentment towards governments and economic situation. In a way these governments make immigrants partners in crime to their adherence to status quo that keeps getting more and more unsustainable when immigrants are often preferred because it is easier to exploit them with lower wages and basically no working rights while at the same time pretending they can't do anything about it because of international laws or "because of the woke" or something like that.
It’s the opposite in Guatemala where we saw a leftist surge. We have a much younger population that’s recently become more politically active after years of being exhausted with far-right rule.
Obviously, these populist rightwing parties aren't a solution to anything at all. They are not going to improve living conditions of anyone but unfortunately the indifference and even disdain the ruling governments have towards the suffering of youth makes them easy prey to populism when they give them such an easily identifiable target to focus their angst towards. In other places where the situation is different that angst will be towards the incumbent governments especially if their governance has been long as it has been in many places.
Japan in particular is wildly xenophobic to begin with and it hasn't offered a future to youth for decades, it had the advantage of being generally affordable especially in terms of housing for decades despite the stagnation but even that is no longer true as in general living standards in Tokyo started to fall behind Western cities in terms of salaries and working hours. So honestly I actually think the rightwing populism will only gain more traction if it remains in opposition because it can keep pointing fingers while the government won't address anything real and it will never be enough.
I mean Japan is 97% Japanese and main immigrant groups are nearby nations, will problems of Japan be solved if 750k Chinese and 500k Koreans living there are removed? Yet there has been a lot of far right rabble rousing about 3000 Kurds living in Saitama, a population that's basically otherwise irrelevant in a city like Tokyo. It is all agitation and angst and no resolution at all and it is not going to get better for them economically in their current configuration which exists between serving status quo and catering primarily to pensioners.
"Japan in particular is wildly xenophobic to begin with and it hasn't offered a future to youth for decades"
Not since like the late Nineties - early Aughts when the economy began to stagnate.
And speaking of Kurds and similar groups of people from MENA (They're super few but they're there) considering where they're from and the religion they subscribe to, Islam, the police have a carte blanche to spy on them whenever the hell they feel like it.
Does Japan still have "freedom of association" laws that apply to racial discrimination or does it not? Was the relative success of the Shinzo Abe assassination's political motive tied to the Moonie cult being Korean, or was it not?