The Ukrainians also possess a unique skill set. Even before the war, Ukraine was a hotbed of scam call center activity, with large organized criminal networks operating hundreds of call centers across the country. This expertise has been put to work by the Ukrainian intelligence services, who trained the scam callers to use blackmail and threats to coerce elderly Russians into committing terrorist attacks. In 2024, American Ryan Routh attempted to assassinate Donald Trump. Routh, who had traveled extensively in Ukraine, was communicating with British-trained Afghan special forces units to recruit them to fight in the AFU. He was also in contact with a Ukrainian source in an attempt to obtain a rocket launcher. He cited support for Ukraine as a motive in the assassination attempt. In February of this year, 17-year-old would-be Trump assassin Nikita Casap killed his parents in preparation for a plot after communicating extensively with an unknown Ukrainian source. Casap was reportedly influenced by the Order of the Nine Angles and MKU groups, both of which have connections to Ukraine. He planned to flee there after killing the president.

The danger presented by postwar Ukrainian personnel is twofold. First, that they will provide a similar manpower pool for black operations as the Cuban exiles once did. In an increasingly fractured European order and amidst regular and mysterious “accidents” at important military and industrial sites across the continent, their spiderweb of relationships with various Western intelligence agencies makes it difficult to predict what or who they’d be used against. Ukrainian special forces and intelligence agents will already possess vast quantities of firearms, explosives, and drones, and they have the training to use them effectively. They also have the expertise to manipulate third parties into conducting attacks for them. Just as the Cuban exiles provided a mercenary army for assassinations, bombings, hijackings, and drug trafficking, Ukrainian exiles will give nefarious actors within deep factions of western governments the ability to execute operations with plausible deniability. The Ukrainians will be much better trained and equipped than the Cubans ever were, and they have millions of Ukrainian refugees in Europe and hundreds of thousands in the US to support them. Ukrainian organized crime will be capable of funding operations through arms and human trafficking.

The second danger is posed by Ukrainian exiles as a violent political force unto themselves. Over the past year, a Ukrainian stab-in-the-back narrative has been forming steadily and is at risk of becoming mainstream. An increasing number of Ukrainian military and political figures, including right-wing nationalists, have gone on the record to warn about an impending or already underway betrayal by their European or American sponsors.

“What has happened is a stab in the back, there is no other way to describe it.” - Genadi Kostov, AFU (ret.)

Ukrainian sentiment regarding its western partners is increasingly souring. Divisions within nationalist elements have formed, with some angrier at the Europeans for pushing for a continuance of a pointless war as others are at Trump for attempting to force Zelensky to end it. In a postwar environment, even small numbers of committed and ideologically motivated Ukrainian soldiers will be capable of attempting to pay the West back asymmetrically. Last week, Ukrainian journalist Maksim Kukhar posted this on Facebook:

“1. The plan is as follows. Officially condemn the United States for switching to the side of aggressive Russia in its war against Ukraine. In connection with the betrayal by the United States, expel the entire staff of the U.S. Embassy and all American citizens from Ukraine within 48 hours. Freeze the accounts and activities of American companies in Ukraine. Begin the process of their nationalization, as well as the nationalization of any U.S. assets in Ukraine. Offer EU countries Ukrainian troops to blockade U.S. military bases in Europe. Since, with the United States now definitively siding with Moscow, these bases may also threaten the independence of EU states. Prepare for military confrontation with U.S. forces in Europe. Develop pre-emptive strikes against their bases and concentrations of forces.

2. When Russia attacked us, we were told we wouldn’t last even a week. Today they will say that if we don’t listen to the U.S. and capitulate, we won’t last even two weeks. But that is a lie—just like the first time. Russia has already broken its teeth on us. Now we must force the United States, which from the first days of the war has helped Moscow far more than it helped us, to understand that it has no right to dictate anything to our country.

3. On the military aspect. The United States has no political possibility to create a significant grouping of forces near our borders, nor is such a possibility expected. Trump cannot say, “I will send troops to Ukraine so they can force Kyiv to submit to Moscow.” Therefore, the U.S. is now simply gifting us the position of Europe’s military leader for decades to come. The main thing now is not to be frightened by empty words and not to give up this position for nothing, for reasons no one understands. Only escalation with Washington and accusing it of betraying everything sacred and democratic—there is no other path.”

No matter how delusional his screed may appear, Maxim’s sentiment is one of many anti-Western narratives developing within Ukraine. The immense scale of Ukrainian losses, both in personnel and infrastructure, has the potential to motivate decades of anger and potential violence.

If the Ukrainians adhere to the pattern we’ve established in this piece, they will present an enormous risk to societies worldwide. Whether they’re used as a tool by unscrupulous state actors, take revenge for perceived betrayal, or are simply left to their own devices in a devastated Ukraine, the potential for blowback here exceeds most, if not all, prior historical examples. Perhaps most disturbingly, there’s little to be done to mitigate this threat. The weapons can’t be unsent, the Ukrainian soldiers can’t be untrained, and the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian war dead can’t be brought back to life. While random acts of violence punctuate the end of the Global War on Terror, the seeds of future violence have already been sown.